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Moving to Horizontal Connections: Design Concept 2

Moving to Horizontal Connections: Design Concept 2. Impacts: 1. What are the critical interactions among resources (and resource management) that will shape regional impacts of climate variability and change?

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Moving to Horizontal Connections: Design Concept 2

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  1. Moving to Horizontal Connections: Design Concept 2 • Impacts: 1. What are the critical interactions among resources (and resource management) that will shape regional impacts of climate variability and change? - How do regional climate, hydrology, and water mgmt. affect the responses of fish & forests to CV & CC? - How are choices about forest mgmt. likely to affect water availability & quality under conditions of CV & CC? -How will the loss of snowpack affect mountain ecosystems?

  2. Horizontal Connections, cont’d. • Impacts, cont’d. 2. How can instruments best be deployed to identify key changes in the region’s climate & natural resources & how can the data most effectively be interpreted into real time forecasts? 3. What are the relationships between intra-seasonal tropical climate variations and intra-seasonal climate events in the PNW? -Can methods for skillful weather/climate predictions be developed at timescales of 10-60 days?

  3. Horizontal Connections, cont’d. • Impacts,cont’d. 4. What are the net impacts of climate variability on the region and what are the likely impacts of climate change, combined with regional trends in population growth and technological development? 5. Where are there thresholds? Which thresholds constitute potential tipping points for increasing vulnerability in ecosystems and human social systems? -How will climate change affect extreme events?

  4. Horizontal Connections, cont’d. • Impacts, cont’d. 6. What are the greatest uncertainties in quantifying the effects of CV & CC on ecosystems & human social systems in the region? Which uncertainties are most crucial for improving predictions? -What are the effects of climate change on ground water and how does ground water influence surface resources (including ecosystems & human social systems? -How can we quantify stock-specific sensitivities to climate and determine the interactions of ocean, estuary, & freshwater portions?

  5. Horizontal Connections, cont’d. • Policy 1.How could cross-sectoral mgmt. improve adaptive capacity by exploiting the critical interactions across sectors & resources? 2. What adaptation strategies are most likely to be effective over the next 50 years? -define characteristics of resilient social systems & strategies for increasing resilience; -evaluate policy efficacy, I.e., the path from policy adoption back through the physical, biological, & socioeconomic structures; -focus on watershed-level investigations; -identify the most powerful entry points for policy recommendations at different space scales; -what are the space-time relationships between the regional climate & regional hydrology? Can these relationships be exploited to increase the reliability of the region’s energy production system through some optimal balance between wind and hydropower?

  6. Horizontal Connections Concluded • Policy, cont’d. 3. How can resource mgmt. operationally include advances in knowledge about CV & CC without requiring formal policy changes? -what do managers want to know? -What do managers need to know? -Can we develop systems such that we do not have to distinguish between “want” & “need” to know? -How can we bring to bear the contributions of decision analysis to maximize our effectiveness in communicating risks to managers and the public?

  7. Regional Hydrology • Columbia River basin • Snake River basin • West side of the Cascades • Puget Sound (urban hydrology) • Forest hydrology • Focus on: trends, predictability, forecasts, resource conflicts The CSES Research and Outreach Program for 2005-2010: Emphasizing Horizontal Integration • Climate Dynamics • Seasonal/interannual variability (ENSO) • Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), all modes • Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) • Pacific North American (PNA) pattern • Regional climate (modeling and downscaling) • Global warming impacts on climate drivers • Regional observing system and integrated data system • Focus on: predictability, thresholds/non-linearities, extreme events, uncertainties Sea Level Rise System Design: Monitoring for Real-Time Forecast Capability • Forest Ecosystems • Ecosystem impacts • Disturbance regimes • Impacts of forest management and land use on streamflow and sediment loads (forest hydrology) • Paleoclimate reconstructions • Coastal Watersheds • Linking watersheds, streams, estuaries, and the coastal ocean • Multiple impact pathways • Economic and policy responses to coastal hazards • Integrated resource management • Aquatic Ecosystems • Salmonids: • freshwater survival • marine survival • Coastal marine fisheries • Human Health • Morbidity/mortality • Harmful algal blooms (HAB) • Air pollution Irrigated Agriculture

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