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2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Predictions

The 2013 rainy season forecast for Macau provides insights into anticipated weather patterns based on historical data and model predictions. Analyzing climate normals from 1981-2010, this report outlines expected precipitation and temperature anomalies for the pre-flood season (April-June) and post-flood season (July-September). It highlights the influence of a stronger-than-normal subtropical high pressure on weather conditions, with implications for rainfall and temperature. Additionally, an ENSO-neutral prediction is favored into fall 2013, impacting the rainy season dynamics.

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2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Predictions

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Presentation Transcript

  1. 2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast Macau Meteorological & Geophysical Bureau Apr 2013

  2. Climate normal (1981-2010) - Precipitation(mm)

  3. Climate normal (1981-2010) - Temperature(℃)

  4. Precipitation & Temperature Anomaly in Macau(1952-2012) (1) Pre-flood season(Apr-June) (2) Post-flood season(July-Sept)

  5. Review of 2012 flood season in Macau

  6. Model prediction for last year(2012) - ECMWF

  7. 2013 rainy season forecast for Macau

  8. Model prediction-ECMWF

  9. Model prediction - NCEP NCEP预测: 4-6月雨量接近气候正常值

  10. Model prediction - NCEP NCEP预测: 7-9月雨量接近气候正常值

  11. System & Circulation Analysis

  12. Historical pattern composite – AMJ

  13. Historical pattern composite – JAS

  14. Geopotential height – 500hPa

  15. Streamline Anomaly – 850hPa

  16. Precipitation Anomaly

  17. ITCZ-OLR 数据源:Linear Inverse Modeling Tropical OLR and SST Anomalies Pentads 12,18,24,30,36,42 Forecasts,NOAA

  18. Results Analysis • Subtropical-high is stronger than normal, which is not favored for precipitation but favored for high temperature in South China. • The convection between the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea which extends east to the Western Pacific is stronger than normal, which may imply the ITCZ is stronger than normal and is further north.

  19. ENSO prediction throughout 2013 ENSO-neutral is favored into Northern Hemisphere fall 2013.

  20. ENSOcondition vs. Rainy season in Macau Source:Running 3-month mean ONI values,http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

  21. Conclusion

  22. Thank you !

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