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Climate Change and Conflict

Climate Change and Conflict. Cindy L. Parker MD, MPH Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Dept. of Environmental Health Sciences Physicians for Social Responsibility. Risk Factors for Conflict. Competition for scarce resources Population growth increases competition

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Climate Change and Conflict

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  1. Climate Change and Conflict Cindy L. Parker MD, MPH Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Dept. of Environmental Health Sciences Physicians for Social Responsibility

  2. Risk Factors for Conflict • Competition for scarce resources • Population growth increases competition •  availability of food and water sources • Migration • Crossing cultural or national borders • Environmental refugees • Partial democracy • Demographic & economic inequities • Gender inequality, youth bulge • Abundance of lootable resources

  3. The Resource Curse: Abundance as well as Scarcity Can Lead to Conflict • Oil, timber, diamonds, gold, coltan • Fungible, portable, lucrative • Worth fighting over • Funding the fighting

  4. Water Availability Now: • 2.3 billion people live in water stressed areas • 1.7 billion live in water scarce areas* By 2025: 3.5 billion people projected to live in water stressed areas • 2.4 billion in water scarce areas* • By 2100: With BAU climate change scenarios, nearly 1/3 of the world’s land surface may be at risk of extreme drought** • *UNEP • **Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Sept. 2006

  5. Gleick’s typology of historicalwater conflicts: • Control of Water Resources:water supplies or access are at the root of tensions • Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states • Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action • Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal • Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors • Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development www.pacinst.org

  6. Kenya: deforestation  less rain and more run-off  water scarcity  hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars • Most water conflict has been intra-national

  7. How Climate Change Affects Environmental Resources Sea level rise Coastal flooding, damage Climate Change Extreme weather events Infestation ↑ runoff rates More frequent droughts, floods Changed hydro cycles transpiration rates, soil moisture, precipitation patterns water, food Deforestation Reduced irrigation capacity Erosion, silting Degradation of farm landerosion, nutrient depletion, compacting, salinization, loss to urbanization Overuse, pollution of water supplies Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999

  8. Environmental Scarcity and Conflict ↓ water, food “Supply-induced scarcity” Migration, expulsion Ethnic conflicts Population growth “Demand-induced scarcity” Increased environmental scarcity Weakened states Coups d’état Decreased economic productivity Deprivation conflicts Unequal resource access “Structure-induced scarcity” Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999

  9. A Case Study: Gaza Supply-induced Scarcity: • Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater • Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters • 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to evaporation • Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer • Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage, agricultural runoff, and saltwater • 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply

  10. Demand-induced scarcity: Consumption: 160 million m³/year Sustainable supply: 50-60 million m³/year Population increases ~1.6 million people Fertility rate 6%; population growth rate 3.78% Consumption of Groundwater in Gaza

  11. Structural Scarcity • Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption • Frozen at 1967 levels • Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person • Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing water/sewer infrastructure • Uneven pricing schemes • Israeli settlers pay $0.10/m³ • Palestinians pay $1.20/m³ • Relative to income, Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli settlers pay for water • Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking water to ~20% population; rest buy bottled drinking water • Families pay as much as 1/3 their monthly income for water

  12. Environmental Scarcity and Conflict ↓ water, food “Supply-induced scarcity” Migration, expulsion Ethnic conflicts Population growth “Demand-induced scarcity” Increased environmental scarcity Weakened states Coups d’état Decreased economic productivity Deprivation conflicts Unequal resource access “Structure-induced scarcity” Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999

  13. Food Supply and Climate Change • Grain yields by 10% for every 1°C  in global average surface T° • 2°C to 3°C  likely; 3°C to 5°C possible • Therefore 20% to 30%  likely; 30% to 50%  possible • 2.5 billion people by 2050

  14. The Global Food System and Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE Social, Political & Economic Factors Meat consumption Population Technology Conflict Policies Poverty/Inequality Economic Development Income Food Prices Food Aid Adaptation Resilience vs Vulnerability Global Food Production Global Food Production Sectors Agriculture Livestock Wild Fisheries Aquaculture Sectors Agriculture Livestock Wild Fisheries Aquaculture Individual Food Supply Resources Land Water Energy Soil Labor Global Food Supply ? Distribution Resources Land Water Energy Soil Labor Access

  15. The Arab Spring 2007 IPPC FAR; http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page6.php

  16. Syria Vegetation Health Index Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study on Syria, 2010 http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010.pdf

  17. Environmental Peacemaking • Scarce resources can be used as a tool • Cooperate to manage environmental resources • transform insecurities and • create more peaceful relationships between parties in dispute • overcome political tensions • promoting interaction, confidence building, and technical cooperation -Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Former Director Environmental Change and Security Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

  18. Minerva Initiative of the U.S. Pentagon Engage scientific community to identify • Regions of high risk • Elements of climate change related risk • Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease • Elements of resilience • What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into conflict? • How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future conflict

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