Colin Thor West Research Assistant Professor of Anthropology

1. Modeling Domestic Transitions, Climatic Change, and Livelihoods: A Case Study of Mossi Households, Burkina Faso Colin Thor West Research Assistant Professor of Anthropology Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA)

2. Pugkêenga (A) and Independent (B) Mossi residence patterns Have Mossi extended households disappeared? If not, why? How do Mossi domestic transitions articulate with larger processes of climatic and social change? Desiccation, livelihood diversification, and agricultural intensification have promoted household extension Rissiam, 2002 – G. Tappan

3. Pugkêenga and Independent Households 30 45 Independent 50 89 Pugkêenga

4. Pugkêenga and independent fields Household – Unit of production, consumption, and reproduction Operationalized – A group that farms together in the same field, pools resources, eats from a common granary and recognizes the authority of single head Pugkêenga Independent

5. Pugkêenga and independent granaries:

6. Africa and Burkina Faso

7. 97 household surveys covering: - demographics - grain production - assets such as animals, cattle, ploughs, etc. Fieldwork conducted in 2004

8. Climatic change: Sahelian desiccation Annual precipitation index for the Sahel (from 11o to 18o N, west of 10o E) From Bell and Lamb 2006: 5344

9. Climatic change: regional desiccation WET DESICCATION famine exodus Data provided by the Direction de la Méteorologie du Burkina Faso

10. Social change: agricultural intensification, livelihood diversification, SWC, cattle-raising

11. SWC and “greening of the Sahel” Comparison of predicted v. observed NDVI for 13.3oN , -1.5oW - Analysis prepared by S. Herrmann, PhD

12. Sustainable livelihoods framework DFID

13. Sustainability – Davies, 1996

14. Mossi mixed subsistence livelihood system

15. Are pugkêenga households disappearing?

16. Pugkêenga households and population density

17. Pugkêenga households and social capital Mann-Whitney Z = -4.425, one-tailed p = 0.000

18. Chayanov consumer/producer ratios Based on Toulmin, 1992:260

19. Pugkêenga Pugkêenga households and Chayanov consumer/producer ratios

20. Pugkêenga households and grain production * * * * * * * * * one-tail p < 0.05using Mann-Whitney U test

21. Pugkêenga households and animal assets mean = 2.95 mean = 6.57 Mann-Whitney Z = -1.16, one-tailed p = 0.041

22. Pugkêenga households and animal assets

23. Pugkêenga and independent households Pukeenga_model

24. Initial scenario – 30 runs

25. Terroir scenario – 30 runs

26. Contemporary scenario – 30 runs

27. Conclusions: - Pugkêenga households persist - Pugkêenga households and their livelihood assets enhance their sustainability under conditions of desiccation, agricultural intensification, and livelihood diversification - Agent-based modeling is a powerful tool for exploring the contingent nature of domestic processes in terms of climatic and social change

28. METEO - BF Institut de la Géographie du Burkina PATECORE - BF Acknowledgements: UofA Marshall Foundation Dissertation Fellowship NOAA Global and Climate Change Post-doc Fellowship Program UofA Global Change IDP Dissertation Improvement Grant Arizona State Museum Raymond Thompson Dissertation Grant UofA Social and Behavioral Sciences Research Institute Graduate Research Grant Institut de la Démographique et de la Statistique -BF