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LNG and climate change

LNG and climate change. The global context. Matt Horne and Josha MacNab Pembina Institute matth@pembina.org | (778) 235-1476 | @ hornematt josham@pembina.org | (778) 871-1100 | @ jmacnab. Context. The claim. Exporting LNG is…

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LNG and climate change

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  1. LNG and climate change The global context Matt Horneand JoshaMacNabPembina Institutematth@pembina.org | (778) 235-1476 | @hornematt josham@pembina.org | (778) 871-1100 | @jmacnab

  2. Context

  3. The claim Exporting LNG is… “…the greatest single step we can take to fight climate change.” B.C. Throne Speech, February 2014

  4. The reality In a world with weak climate policies, natural gas will not reduce coal use and will not help solve climate change. In a world with strong climate policies: • Demand for natural gas peaks by 2030 and drops below current levels by mid-century. • Energy efficiency, renewables and nuclear enable a transition away from fossil fuels.

  5. Overview • Unpacking the claim • Approach • Findings • Summary & Recommendations

  6. Unpacking the claim The government’s claim is premised on two assumptions:

  7. Unpacking the claim The government’s claim is premised on two assumptions: The reality isn’t this simple

  8. Unpacking the claim • Assumption 1 is mostly right: • While there is uncertainty, gas is less polluting than coal in most cases if methane is well managed. • Assumption 2 is flawed: • Climate policy, not the availability of natural gas, determines coal use. • Coal and gas aren’t the only options. The broader mix of coal, gas, oil, renewables, nuclear and efficiency determines total carbon pollution.

  9. Our approach • We reviewed existing models to assess: • What is the role of natural gas in a world with weak climate policies (the world we live in today)? • What is the role of natural gas in a world with strong climate policies (the world we’re trying to transition to)?

  10. Findings – Weak policy • In a world with weak climate policies, natural gas will not reduce coal use and will not help solve climate change. 2011 2035 2035 2011 Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2013

  11. Findings – Strong policy In a world with strong climate policies, natural gas demand peaks near 2030, and drops below current levels by mid-century. 2030: Peak. Mid-century: Below current demand. Natural gas demand with weak climate policies Natural gas demand with strong climate policies

  12. Findings – Strong policy • In a world with strong climate policies, energy efficiency, renewables and nuclear enable a transition away from fossil fuels. Difference between a world with strong and weak climate change policies Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2013

  13. Summary & recommendations In a world with weak climate policies, natural gas will not reduce coal use and will not help solve climate change. In a world with strong climate policies: • Demand for natural gas peaks by 2030 and drops below current levels by mid-century. • Energy efficiency, renewables and nuclear enable a transition away from fossil fuels.

  14. Summary & recommendations • Strengthen domestic efforts to reduce carbon pollution. • Play an increasingly proactive role in encouraging stronger climate policy globally.

  15. pembina.org/subscription Pembina eNews, Media releases, Publication alerts twitter.com/pembinafacebook.com/pembina.institute JoshaMacNab, BC Directorjosham@pembina.org | 778) 871-1100 | @jmacnab Matt Horne, BC Associate Directormatth@pembina.org | (778) 235-1476 | @hornematt

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