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Big Data… Big Problems?

Big Data… Big Problems?. Big Data… Big Problems?. Big Data… Big Problems?. The Lessons of 2012. The 538 Method (Simplified). 1. Average the Polls. 2. Count to 270. 3. Account for Margin of Error. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012. The Lessons of 2012.

jerry-mays
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Big Data… Big Problems?

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  1. Big Data… Big Problems?

  2. Big Data… Big Problems?

  3. Big Data… Big Problems?

  4. The Lessons of 2012 The 538 Method (Simplified) 1. Average the Polls 2. Count to 270 3. Account for Margin of Error

  5. The Lessons of 2012

  6. The Lessons of 2012

  7. The Lessons of 2012

  8. The Lessons of 2012 “nate silver” “joe biden”

  9. The Lessons of 2012 “justin bieber”

  10. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?

  11. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?

  12. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?

  13. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio

  14. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio

  15. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio

  16. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/sports.png

  17. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal

  18. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal

  19. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”

  20. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”

  21. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”

  22. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”

  23. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”

  24. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?

  25. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?

  26. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?

  27. Suggestions

  28. Suggestions 1. Think Probabilistically 2. Know Where You’re Coming From 3. Try, and Err

  29. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically Levee: 51’ Flood Prediction: 49’

  30. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically Margin of Error: ±9’ Levee: 51’ Flood Prediction: 49’

  31. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically

  32. Suggestion #2: Know Where You’re Coming From

  33. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err Accuracy Effort

  34. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err

  35. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err Accuracy Effort

  36. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err

  37. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err Accuracy Effort

  38. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err Accuracy Effort

  39. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err Water level Accuracy Effort

  40. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err Competitive Advantage Accuracy Effort

  41. Suggestions 1. Think Probabilistically 2. Know Where You’re Coming From 3. Try, and Err

  42. Suggestions (Know Your Limitations) 2. Know Where You’re Coming From 3. Try, and Err

  43. Suggestions (Know Your Limitations) (Consider Your Assumptions) 3. Try, and Err

  44. Suggestions (Know Your Limitations) (Consider Your Assumptions) (Refine Your Process)

  45. Suggestions “In Science, We Seek to Balance Creativity and Skepticism” -- Michael Babyak, PhD, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Science, Duke University Medical Center

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