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Ulrich Damrath Deutscher Wetterdienst

Common meeting of COSMO WG4/5 Geneve 26.05.-28.05. 2003 Verification of LM-forecasts for surface weather elements over Germany using SYNOP observations. Ulrich Damrath Deutscher Wetterdienst. Extensions: - cloud cover in different levels - gusts.

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Ulrich Damrath Deutscher Wetterdienst

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  1. Common meeting ofCOSMO WG4/5 Geneve 26.05.-28.05. 2003Verification of LM-forecasts for surface weather elements over Germany using SYNOP observations Ulrich Damrath Deutscher Wetterdienst Extensions: - cloud cover in different levels - gusts

  2. New parameterization of gusts and its effects (I)

  3. New parameterization of gusts and its effects (II)

  4. New parameterization of gusts and its effects (III)

  5. New parameterization of gusts and its effects (IV)

  6. New parameterization of gusts and its effects (V) General structure of contingency tables:

  7. ETS of gusts > 12 m/s valid time 00 UTC

  8. ETS of gusts > 12 m/s valid time 06 UTC

  9. ETS of gusts > 12 m/s valid time 12 UTC

  10. ETS of gusts > 12 m/s valid time 18 UTC

  11. ETS of gusts > 20 m/s valid time 18 UTC

  12. FBI of gusts > 12 m/s valid time 18 UTC

  13. FBI of gusts > 15 m/s valid time 18 UTC

  14. FBI of gusts > 20 m/s valid time 18 UTC

  15. FBI of gusts > 12 m/s valid time 06 UTC

  16. POD and FAR of gusts > 12 m/s valid time 18 UTC

  17. Verification of clouds in different heights Basic information: LM output, Elements :73, 74, 75 Synop data: group NN HH CL CM CH NN: cloud cover of lowest clouds HH: Height of lowest clouds CL: Type of low clouds CM: Type of clouds in medium heights CH: Type of high clouds Decision tree: if (CL.gt.0) then NL=NN elseif (CM.gt.0) then NM=NN elseNH=N ! from group N DD FF end if end if

  18. Verification of clouds in different heights NL compared to element 73 NM compared to element 74 NH compared to element 75 Method of verification: contingency tables in the known ranges Possible problems : Not all events are catched, because higher clouds may be hided by lower clouds The same problem as verification of precipitation for desert regions: If camels do not get wet, there is no chance to verify precipitation !

  19. Hits of total cloud cover valid time 06 UTC

  20. Hits of cover CL valid time 06 UTC

  21. Hits of cloud cover CM valid time 06 UTC

  22. Hits of cloud cover CH valid time 06 UTC

  23. That‘s all,thank you for your attention!

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