Beyond The Great Recession: 2020

1. BeyondThe Great Recession: 2020 A Regional Summit for the Communities of South Central Pennsylvania June 13, 2012 York Holiday Inn, York, PA

2. The Center for Rural Pennsylvania Legislative sevice agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly (Rural Revitalization Act of 1987, amended Act 52, 2009) Mandates • Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions. • Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs.

3. Population Density, 2010 (Number of Persons Per Square Land Mile) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

4. 1960 Population Distribution 2010 Population Distribution Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

5. South Central Region is Growing

6. Population in South Central Pennsylvania , 1900-2030 (projected) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau & Penn State Data Center

7. South Central Region’s Municipal Population 1960 to 2010 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

8. Out-of-State In-Migration to andOut-Migration from South Central Pennsylvania 1991-92 to 2009-10 Data source: IRS

9. Birth and Death Rates in South Central Pennsylvania, 1970-2010 Rate = Deaths/live births per 1,000 population Data source: PA Dept Health and U.S. Census Bureau

10. Municipalities with Population Decline, 2000 - 2010 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

11. South Central Region is Aging & Becoming More Diverse

12. Children & Youth and Senior Citizens in South Central Region, 1950 to 2030 (projected) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau & Penn State Data Center

13. Minorities, 2010 Pennsylvania South Central Region Pennsylvania White/Non-Hispanics = 10,094,652 Minorities = 2,607,727 South Central Region White/Non-Hispanics = 1,600,935 Minorities = 287,550 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

14. Non-Whites Non-Whites as Percent of Population, 1960-2010 Non-Whites by Municipality, 2010 1 Dot = 10 People Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

15. Hispanics/Latinos Hispanics/Latinos by Municipality, 2010 Hispanics/Latinos as Percent of Population, 1980-2010 1 Dot = 10 People Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau

16. Economic Stability and Growth

17. Employers and Employees in South Central Pennsylvania, 1980 to 2010 Employees Employers Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

18. Employment by Industry in South Central Region, 2001 and 2011 2nd Qt. 2001 (818,034 Employees) 2nd Qt. 2011 (833,413 Employees) Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

19. Percent Change in Employment by Industry in South Central Region, 2nd Qt. 2001 to 2nd Qt. 2011 Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

20. Unemployment First Quarter 2012 Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Average Annual Unemployment Rates, 1970-2011 Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

21. Average Wages and Salaries Inflation Adjusted Average Wages and Salaries, 1970-2010 Average Wages and Salaries, 2010 Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wages adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2010=100

22. Bank Deposits, 1995-2011 Bank Deposits per Capita, June 2011 Inflation Adjusted Bank Deposits per Capita, 1995-2011 Data sources: FDIC and U.S. Census Bureau

23. Labor Force Participation(Persons 16+ Years Old) Labor Force Participation Rate, 1970-2010 Employment: Full-/Part-Time, Year Round/Seasonal, 2010 Data sources: PA Dept. Labor & Industry and U.S. Census Bureau Data source: 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau

24. Getting To Work Average Commute Time to Work (in Minutes), 1990-2010 Percent of Persons Working in the Municipality Where They Live, 2006-10 Data source: 1990 Census, 2000 Census and 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau Data source: 2006-2010 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau

25. Sources of Personal Income in South Central Region, 1970 and 2010 1970 $5.23 Billion ($29.41 Billion Inflation Adjusted) 2010 $69.78 Billion Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wages adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2010=100

26. Slow Housing Market

27. New Housing Permits Issued in South Central Region Permits Issued, 1990-2011 Permits Issued, 2011 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

28. Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure (Act 91 Notices), 2008-2011 Act 91 Notices per 1,000 South Central Region Homeowners *, 2008-2011 Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure (Act 91 Notices) per 1,000 Homeowners* By County, 1st Quarter, 2011 *2010 Census Owner-occupied data was used in the dominator Data source: Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency

29. Housing Affordability: Ratio of Household Income Housing Payments, 2010 Mortgage Payer Homeowners Renters Data source: 2010 ACS-PUMS U.S. Census Bureau

30. Strong Agricultural Sector

31. Ag sales, 2010 Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

32. Number of Acres of Farmland, 1930-2007 Data sources: National Agricultural Statistics Service

33. Municipal Revenues

34. Number of South Central Municipalities with a Deficit, 2005-2010 Municipalities with Deficits, 2010 Data sources: Governor's Center for Local Government Services

35. Municipal Tax Revenues Inflation Adjusted Municipal Tax Revenues Per Capita, 2005-2010 Municipal Tax Revenues Per capita, 2010 Data sources: Governor's Center for Local Government Services

36. Adult (25+) Educational Attainment in South Central Region % Adults with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 1990-2010 Highest Level of Adult Educational Attainment in South Central Region, 2010 Data sources: 1990 Census, 2000 Census and 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau

37. Conclusions • South Center region came through the Great Recession less bruised than the rest of the state • Recovery from the Great Recession has been slow • Demographically South Central region is growing, it is also young and becoming more diverse • The South Central region is not homogeneous in terms of economy, population change, income, etc. • South Central region does not reflect statewide conditions – good or bad.

38. 625 Forster St, Room 902 Health and Welfare Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 (717) 787-9555 www.rural.palegislature.us Barry L. Denk Director