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H. Morimoto Nagoya University, Japan

Data Mining to Estimate the Effect of Changes of Weather on the Onset of Stroke and Myocardial Ischemia. H. Morimoto Nagoya University, Japan. Sickness and health start with the mind . Sickness and health start with the weather. An old wound aches in bad weather

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H. Morimoto Nagoya University, Japan

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  1. Data Mining to Estimate the Effect of Changes of Weather on the Onset of Stroke and Myocardial Ischemia H. Morimoto Nagoya University, Japan

  2. Sickness and health start with the mind.Sickness and health start with the weather. An old wound aches in bad weather The waist aches when it rains If the kids make a racket outside, there will be rain Low pressure causes headaches

  3. Diseases affected by weather • Pain caused by weather rheumatism, arthralgia • Cardiovascular disease cerebral hemorrhage, cerebral infarction, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris • Calculosis cholelithiasis, urinary concrement • Mental disorder

  4. Attempt in Germany • 1952 “Medical weather forecast” issued by Meteorological Observatory at Hamburg

  5. Attempt at Hiroshima City in JAPAN Warning for myocardial infarction and cerebral infarction Myocardial Infarction mean temperature < 6℃ air pressure < 1013 hPa Warning mean temperature < 6℃ air pressure >= 1013 hPa Attention Others Safe Cerebral Infarction mean temperature < 9℃ Attention mean temperature >= 9℃ Safe

  6. Attempt at Nagoya City in JAPAN Nagoya University (H.Morimoto) Nagoya City Japan Weather Assoc. Japan Weather Assoc.

  7. DATA The number of patients transported by ambulance in Nagoya transported by ambulance vehicle to a hospital diagnosed as cerebral infarction, myocardial infarction. Periods: from 2002 to 2005 and from 2009 to 2012 Meteorological data mean temperature, mean air pressure, precipitation etc. Weather patterns (6 classes) "high pressure warm pattern", "low pressure cold pattern",etc. Classified by Self-Organized Map (SOM)

  8. Methods(Idea of Infromatics: Entropy, Information） Entropy (quantity of disorder) Large Small

  9. TitanicWhat decided the survival and the death?

  10. Which has the larger Entropy? Male Second Class Female First Class survival death survival death

  11. Result (Titanic) Male Female M Adult Child Class=3 Class=1,2,Crew Class=1,2 Class=3 Death Survived Death Survived

  12. Application to cerebral infarction Decision Tree Max temperature < 8.05 Max temperature >= 8.05 diff of min. temp >= 2.3 diff of min. temp >= 2.3 ("diff of min. temp = difference between minimum temperature over two consecutive days)

  13. Cerebral infarctions and max temperature Lag Lag

  14. Cerebral infarctions and max temperature Lag Lag

  15. Difference of minimal temperature difference between minimum temperature over two consecutive days

  16. Hidden Markov Model(1) Hidden States for stock markets Stock prices from: http://rstudio-pubs-static.s3.amazonaws.com/2998_ba38dfe6c545468ea0c55892ae8f1202.html

  17. Hidden Markov Model(2) Hidden States (background) state Economical states or Hidden States Political states state state stock Observed data (foregrond)

  18. Hidden Markov Model(3) Hidden States (background) Six classes of weather patterns Weather patterns t - d d=lag Time series of cerebral infarctions risk t time Observed data (foregrond)

  19. Result: Estimate of Lags

  20. Mechanism

  21. Vascular at adipose tissue(1) By Nishimura

  22. Vascular at adipose tissue(2) By Nishimura

  23. Formation of thrombus (Lag effects) thrombus atheroma Cold Exposure

  24. Thank you for your attention

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