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Money and Inflation

4. Money and Inflation. 15%. % change in CPI from 12 months earlier. 12%. long-run trend. 9%. 6%. 3%. 0%. 1960. 1965. 1970. 1975. 1980. 1985. 1990. 1995. 2000. 2005. U.S. inflation and its trend , 1960-2006. slide 1. 影響評估： 第一、二次石油危機 ( 美國 Case ) 油價上揚→ 通貨膨脹 ( 物價上揚 ) → 抑制需求 ??.

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Money and Inflation

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  1. 4 Money and Inflation

  2. 15% % change in CPI from 12 months earlier 12% long-run trend 9% 6% 3% 0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 U.S. inflation and its trend, 1960-2006 slide 1

  3. 影響評估：第一、二次石油危機 (美國Case)油價上揚→通貨膨脹(物價上揚)→抑制需求??

  4. Do We Really Know That That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? • Barsky & Kilian (Michigan University, 2001, 2004): • 第一次石油危機不是1970年初經濟衰退和高通膨的主因。 • FED的金融擴張才是！ • 主要理由： • 主因之一是他們發覺物價早在1970年初OPEC的石油禁運造成油價高漲之前就可觀地在國際間上揚。 • 歷史上大部份的衰退是發生在 • 中東紛亂之前；換句話說，人 • 豈不反而推論是OECD rcessions • 引起OPEC漲油價！？ CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  5. 國際原油以美元為計價單位 Data Source: Fed CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  6. Money: Functions • medium of exchangewe use it to buy stuff • store of valuetransfers purchasing power from the present to the future • unit of accountthe common unit by which everyone measures prices and values CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  7. Money: Types 1.fiat money • has no intrinsic value • example: the paper currency we use 2.commodity money • has intrinsic value • examples: gold coins, cigarettes in P.O.W. camps CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  8. Discussion Question Which of these are money? a.Currency b.Checks c.Deposits in checking accounts (“demand deposits”) d.Credit cards e.Certificates of deposit (“time deposits”) CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  9. The money supply and monetary policy definitions • The money supply is the quantity of money available in the economy. • Monetary policy is the control over the money supply. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  10. The Federal Reserve Building Washington, DC The central bank • Monetary policy is conducted by a country’s central bank. • In the U.S., the central bank is called the Federal Reserve(“the Fed”). CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  11. C Currency $739 M1 C + demand deposits, travelers’ checks, other checkable deposits $1391 M2 M1 + small time deposits, savings deposits, money market mutual funds, money market deposit accounts $6799 Money supply measures, April 2006 symbol assets included amount ($ billions) CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  12. The Quantity Theory of Money • A simple theory linking the inflation rate to the growth rate of the money supply. • Begins with the concept of velocity… CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  13. Velocity • basic concept: the rate at which money circulates • definition: the number of times the average dollar bill changes hands in a given time period • example: In 2007, • $500 billion in transactions • money supply = $100 billion • The average dollar is used in five transactions in 2007 • So, velocity = 5 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  14. Velocity, cont. • This suggests the following definition: where V = velocity T = value of all transactions M = money supply CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  15. Velocity, cont. • Use nominal GDP as a proxy for total transactions. Then, where P = price of output (GDP deflator) Y = quantity of output (real GDP) P Y = value of output (nominal GDP) CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  16. The quantity equation • The quantity equationM V = P Yfollows from the preceding definition of velocity. • It is an identity:it holds by definition of the variables. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  17. Money demand and the quantity equation • M/P = real money balances, the purchasing power of the money supply. • A simple money demand function: (M/P)d = kYwherek = how much money people wish to hold for each dollar of income. (kis exogenous) CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  18. Money demand and the quantity equation • money demand: (M/P)d = kY • quantity equation: M V = P Y • The connection between them: k = 1/V • When people hold lots of money relative to their incomes (kis high), money changes hands infrequently (Vis low). CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  19. Back to the quantity theory of money • starts with quantity equation • assumes V is constant & exogenous: • With this assumption, the quantity equation can be written as CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  20. The quantity theory of money, cont. How the price level is determined: • With V constant, the money supply determines nominal GDP (P Y ). • Real GDP is determined by the economy’s supplies of K and L and the production function (Chap 3). • The price level is P = (nominal GDP)/(real GDP). CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  21. The quantity theory of money, cont. • Recall from Chapter 2: The growth rate of a product equals the sum of the growth rates. • The quantity equation in growth rates: CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  22. The quantity theory of money, cont.  (Greek letter “pi”) denotes the inflation rate: The result from the preceding slide was: Solve this result for  to get CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  23. The quantity theory of money, cont. • Normal economic growth requires a certain amount of money supply growth to facilitate the growth in transactions. • Money growth in excess of this amount leads to inflation. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  24. The quantity theory of money, cont. Y/Y depends on growth in the factors of production and on technological progress (all of which we take as given, for now). Hence, the Quantity Theory predicts a one-for-one relation between changes in the money growth rate and changes in the inflation rate. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  25. Confronting the quantity theory with data The quantity theory of money implies 1. countries with higher money growth rates should have higher inflation rates. 2. the long-run trend behavior of a country’s inflation should be similar to the long-run trend in the country’s money growth rate. Are the data consistent with these implications? CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  26. International data on inflation and money growth Turkey Ecuador Indonesia Belarus Argentina U.S. Switzerland Singapore CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  27. 15% M2 growth rate 12% 9% 6% 3% inflation rate 0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 U.S. inflation and money growth, 1960-2006 Over the long run, the inflation and money growth rates move together, as the quantity theory predicts. slide 26

  28. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  29. South Korea’s Money Supply CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  30. Goldman Sachs: China's M2 growth underestimates inflation pressure (07/07) • China needs "decisive" measures to rein in excessive demand and control inflation pressures as its M2 growth has understated the speed of monetary expansion, according to the latest report by Goldman Sachs, the U.S. investment bank. • Growth rate of M2, a broad measure of money supply, edged down to 17.1 percent in April 2007, while M3, which includes M2, deposits in non-bank financial institutions and securities issued by financial institutions, picked up to 19.2 percent year-on-year. • In the past, M2 and M3 are used to maintain similar growth speeds due to relatively small changes in non-M2 liabilities in the country, said Liang, who believed a broader money supply measure like M3 would be a more useful parameter to assess the extent of monetary expansion and to forecast the demand, given the rapid growth in capital markets. • The Goldman Sachs predicted the consumer price index (CPI), a major inflation gauge, would be at 3.6 percent in 2007 and an average of more than four percent in the rest of the year. The bank expected CPI inflation to ease to 2.6 percent in 2008.

  31. Seigniorage • To spend more without raising taxes or selling bonds, the govt can print money. • The “revenue” raised from printing money is called seigniorage (pronounced SEEN-your-idge). • The inflation tax:Printing money to raise revenue causes inflation. Inflation is like a tax on people who hold money. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  32. Inflation and interest rates • Nominal interest rate, inot adjusted for inflation • Real interest rate, radjusted for inflation:r = i  CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  33. The Fisher effect • The Fisher equation:i = r +  • Chap 3: S = I determines r. • Hence, an increase in causes an equal increase in i. • This one-for-one relationship is called the Fisher effect. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  34. nominal interest rate Inflation and nominal interest rates in the U.S., 1955-2006 percent per year 15 10 5 0 inflation rate -5 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  35. Inflation and nominal interest rates across countries Romania Zimbabwe Brazil Bulgaria Israel U.S. Germany Switzerland CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  36. Exercise: Suppose V is constant, Mis growing 5% per year, Y is growing 2% per year, and r= 4. a. Solve for i. b. If the Fed increases the money growth rate by 2 percentage points per year, find i. c. Suppose the growth rate of Y falls to 1% per year. • What will happen to ? • What must the Fed do if it wishes to keep constant? CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  37. Answers: V is constant, M grows 5% per year, Y grows 2% per year, r = 4. a. First, find  = 5  2 = 3. Then, find i = r +  = 4 + 3 = 7. b. i = 2, same as the increase in the money growth rate. c. If the Fed does nothing,  = 1. To prevent inflation from rising, Fed must reduce the money growth rate by 1 percentage point per year. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  38. Two real interest rates •  = actual inflation rate (not known until after it has occurred) • e = expected inflation rate • i – e = ex ante real interest rate: the real interest rate people expect at the time they buy a bond or take out a loan • i –  = ex postreal interest rate:the real interest rate actually realized CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  39. Money demand and the nominal interest rate • In the quantity theory of money, the demand for real money balances depends only on real income Y. • Another determinant of money demand: the nominal interest rate, i. • the opportunity cost of holding money (instead of bonds or other interest-earning assets). • Hence, i   in money demand. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  40. (M/P)d = real money demand, depends negatively on i i is the opp. cost of holding money positively on Y higher Y more spending  so, need more money (“L” is used for the money demand function because money is the most liquid asset.) The money demand function CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  41. When people are deciding whether to hold money or bonds, they don’t know what inflation will turn out to be. Hence, the nominal interest rate relevant for money demand is r + e. The money demand function CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  42. The supply of real money balances Real money demand Equilibrium CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  43. variable how determined (in the long run) M exogenous (the Fed) r adjusts to make S = I Y P adjusts to make What determines what CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  44. How P responds to M • For given values of r, Y, and e, a change in Mcauses P to change by the same percentage – just like in the quantity theory of money. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  45. What about expected inflation? • Over the long run, people don’t consistently over- or under-forecast inflation, so e =  on average. • In the short run, e may change when people get new information. • EX: Fed announces it will increase Mnext year. People will expect next year’s P to be higher, so e rises. • This affects Pnow, even though M hasn’t changed yet…. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  46. How P responds to e • For given values of r, Y, and M , CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  47. Discussion question Why is inflation bad? • What costs does inflation impose on society? List all the ones you can think of. • Focus on the long run. • Think like an economist. CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  48. A common misperception • Common misperception: inflation reduces real wages • This is true only in the short run, when nominal wages are fixed by contracts. • (Chap. 3) In the long run, the real wage is determined by labor supply and the marginal product of labor, not the price level or inflation rate. • Consider the data… CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  49. wage in current dollars CPI (right scale) wage in 2006 dollars Average hourly earnings and the CPI, 1964-2006 $20 250 $18 $16 200 $14 $12 150 hourly wage CPI (1982-84 = 100) $10 $8 100 $6 $4 50 $2 $0 0 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

  50. The classical view of inflation • The classical view: A change in the price level is merely a change in the units of measurement. So why, then, is inflation a social problem? CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

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