joan-barr
Uploaded by
7 SLIDES
199 VUES
70LIKES

Understanding Population Projections: Insights and Implications for Future Growth

DESCRIPTION

This lesson explores the concept of population projections and the various factors influencing population size, such as fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration patterns. It provides a hands-on activity where learners can analyze projected population changes by selecting different fertility scenarios for two countries. Students will evaluate the impact of these scenarios and discuss their implications for resource management, including housing, food, and healthcare. The strengths and weaknesses of projection models are also assessed, highlighting the importance of reliable data and assumptions in making accurate predictions.

1 / 7

Télécharger la présentation

Understanding Population Projections: Insights and Implications for Future Growth

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ESS Topic 3 Lesson 4 Key Concepts: Computer simulations, population projection. Assessment Statements 3.1.4

  2. What is a population projection? RECAP: What factors affecting popn size would we need to take into account?

  3. 2.6 2.1 1.7 UN Population Projection

  4. http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/interactives/demographics/demog.htmlhttp://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/interactives/demographics/demog.html Choose 2 different countries from the drop-down list. For each country, RUN 3 fertility scenarios: 2.6, 2.1 and 1.7 children per woman Write down the projected impact upon population size growth, and explain why this would occur.

  5. Value of projection models? • Requires 2 data points; easy to analyse. • Identify when / if carrying capacity will be met. • Govts can plan for pressures on resources: housing space, transport, food, water, finance, medical care… • Prepare for the environmental impact humans will have. • Put into place popn policies in advance (POPULATION MOMENTUM)

  6. Possible problems? • Assumptions about levels of fertility and mortality and migration levels. • Based upon current population estimates. • Data in many nations is unreliable. • Smaller / LIC nations given less focus. • Assumptions made regarding age groups and fertility or mortality. • Fluctuating BRs (govt policies) and DRs (new vaccines or diseases eg HIV).

  7. How else could we predict population change? Strengths? and Weaknesses?

More Related