Presentation Transcript

1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.
2. Tonight’sAgenda Updates Markets at all time highs!! Unemployment Falls to 7.7% 17/18 banks pass stress tests
3. UPDATES Final meeting until 3/31 T-shirts after spring break Possibly new meeting time?? 2 Guest speakers- Jeff Hart and Peter Schiff Bar crawl- Sometime in April Investment competition standings
4. Hawktrade Inv. Comp. Update
5. Reviewing Last Weeks Debate: Are we heading to all time highs and beyond or is a 5-10% correction coming first?

   3/3 DEBATE:

6. + 2.2%
7. Professor Jeff Hart’s Market Observation: 2007 to now
8. Does the Stock market being at an all time high really matter? Why are the stock market and economy so off balance? Stocks and the Economy
9. Video Recap- Who owns Stocks? Market higher doesn’t translate to more disposable income for large majority of consumers. Wages and salaries is what drives spending and both haven’t even kept up with inflation so consumer spending has continued to be “anemic”.
10. FEB Jobs Report: 236,000 Jobs created; Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.7%
11. Job Situation- February http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
12. A Tale of 2 Employment Surveys Payroll/ Establishment Household More volatile b/c only 60,000 people surveyed Gov. workers ask whether adults in a household have a job. Then asked if they have looked for work in last 30 days, if not, then they aren't part of labor force. Produces the unemployment rate. Surveys 140,000 companies & Gov. agencies Asks mostly large companies and government agencies how many people they employed. Employers send forms to labor dept. or fill online surveys. Survey produces the number of jobs gained or lost as well as wages and hours worked.
13. So Who’s unemployed?? U-3( official) = 7.7% (looking for a job within the last month) U-6 = 14.3% (looking for job within the last year) ShadowStat = 23.0% (looking for a job)
14. U3/U6/Shadow number
15. Jobs Report- Beyond the Headlines Besides the “unemployment Rate” and number of jobs created, here's what to look for to better understand the report and make investment decisions from it. Part-time workers Two 20hr part time jobs = one full time 40hr job but would be 2 net jobs created. Seasonal hires Employees hired for holidays/special events aren’t real economic jobs. Labor force participation rate Measures how many people are able to work but have stopped looking and are no longer counted in the labor force.
16. If the Labor Participation rate was the same as 2007 the unemployment rate would be 11%!!

17. Expect a 5% correction?

18. Video Summary - Recap “Grand Disconnect” “Stocks still cheap” Both agree “Don’t Fight the Fed” in the short run but differ drastically on how they think investors should value the market on a P/E basis .
19. P/E Ratios on the market Trailing: Current index price over Prior years EPS of all companies. 17.5 Forward: Current index price over Next years expected EPS of all companies. 14 Schiller Cyclically adjusted P/E ratio: Ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. 23.38 *S&P 500 average P/E ratio is 15-17
20. Santellivs. Liesman Round 37- Is The Fed helping or Hurting?
21. With Eric Woodraska and Dylan Hochester
22. Eric Woodraska & Dylan Hochstetler Worked with founder of club End of meeting discussions “Dropbox” for stocks Expand on outside events like Airliner
23. Comprehensive Capital Analysis Review (Stress Test) 18 Largest US banks Tests banks ability in adverse economic conditions Fed began testing in 2009 because of Financial crisis
24. 2012 Stress Test Unemployment 13% Equities down 50% Housing prices drop 21%
25. Losers of 2012 Citigroup (C) Ally Financial (GMA) SunTrust (STI) MetLife (MET) (Sold out of banking business)
26. 2013 Stress Test Scenario GDP falls an average of 4% this year Unemployment goes to 12.1% Equities down 50% Housing prices drop 20% ‘Passing’ was > 5% capital ratio
27. Capital Ratio Measure of the amount of a bank's core capital expressed as a percentage of its risk-weighted asset
28. Stress Tests Show Banks Weathering Recession Bank Stress Test
29. Winners and Losers Winners Citigroup (C) JPM Chase (JPM) Bank of America (BAC) Wells Fargo (WFC) Loser Ally Financial (GMA) 2nd year in a row it hasn’t passed
30. Will it matter?
31. What does ‘passing’ mean? Share buyback Citi set to buyback $1.2 billion Increase dividends Citi will not increase dividends
32. Bank Plays Remember March 14th 2nd set of numbers comes out Official Pass/Fail and approval of bank plans by Fed DirexionDaily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ)
33. Your text here First Stock to $1000?
34. First Stock to $1000? $821.50 $90.26 $714.01 $273.11 $420.05
35. Priceline: Interesting chart
36. The Week Ahead:
37. The Week Ahead: Recap Earnings: Data Retail spending fro Feb Samsung releases Galaxy s4 Costco (COST) Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) Men's warehouse (MW) Urban outfitters (URBN)