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What I would like from Bali

What I would like from Bali. Tariq Banuri, SEI 2007. Introduction. Four opening points Climate change is real Happening not a time of our choosing—unfinished global agendas could be on collision course with climate response Other complicating factors may make life more or less difficult

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What I would like from Bali

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  1. What I would like from Bali Tariq Banuri, SEI 2007

  2. Introduction • Four opening points • Climate change is real • Happening not a time of our choosing—unfinished global agendas could be on collision course with climate response • Other complicating factors may make life more or less difficult • Solutions do exist; the obstacles lie elsewhere • Not argue about adaptation, because what is needed is well known

  3. Tipping Points and Challenges

  4. The simple answer:Reduce carbon emissions

  5. Not so Fast

  6. Climate and Development • The development agenda is real—and, like climate, will be ignored at our peril • Mounting frustration over the inability of the development agenda to change anything of substance has been blunted by 2 factors: China and India • But frustration is mounting elsewhere • Bottom line: Protect the “book-ends”

  7. Back to Emissions

  8. A Simple Decomposition Energy Emissions = Population x Affluence x Energy Intensity X Carbon Intensity E = P (Y/P) [E/Y] (C/E]

  9. The Aggregate ChallengeEnergy Related CO2 Emissions

  10. Climate Options Per Capita Income Carbon Emissions Concentration Energy Population Energy Efficiency Limit Population How much Is enough Shift to Renewables CCS

  11. The Obstacles Lie Elsewhere Some economists and development experts [sic] criticised the [Human Development] report…that a quick, costly shift away from fossil fuels, the main source of emissions, could actually backfire, blunting the climb towards prosperity that they say is a prerequisite for action to improve environmental quality. Another reason…is that risks are rising…because population growth in poor places is greatly increasing how many people are exposed… Robert O. Mendelsohn, “An aggressive mitigation plan is likely to be a greater threat to growth than climate change impacts. We do not yet have the technology…” New York Times 28 November 2007

  12. Umm, Bob, we do have the technology

  13. With apologies to my French Friends Economists are like Frenchmen. No matter what one says to them, they immediately translate it into their own language. And forthwith it becomes something entirely different.

  14. Recognizing the two challenges Source: World Bank (1998); Marland, et al. (1998).

  15. The Bowl and the Stem Growth is the only sure recipe short of a global revolution to reduce inequality, establish human rights, and eradicate poverty • The inability to mobilize international action on climate is in part because of the inequality • Current solution—separate and equal—produces only a race between growth and catastrophe • Only by integrating the twin goals (climate and development) can progress be made

  16. History I: Common and Differentiated PREAMBLE:Emphasizes differentiated responsibility, prevention of harm, differing needs, vulnerabilities, capabilities and resources. [12 out of 23 paragraphs] OBJECTIVES:Calls for economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. PRINCIPLES:Each of 5 principles includes equity considerations: equity, special needs, precautionary measures, right to sustainable development, and developing country growth.

  17. History 2: Separate but Equal • Voluntary Commitments (average 5.2 % below 1990 by 2008-12) • Emission trading plus adaptation fund • “Equity” disappears, financial and technological transfers still promised (but lose prominence), focus shifts to domestic action/options • In retrospect, none of the commitments were fulfilled: emission targets not achieved, finance and technology minuscule

  18. What Regime(s) would be best Emissions Based: e.g., (a) national targets; (b) national emission rights; (c) per capita emission rights; (d) emission development rights Tax Based: Carbon-tax (comparable to targets) Regulation-Based: e.g., Immediate moratorium on exploration and phased-in on extraction. Investment-Based: Global public investment program Cross Cutting issue: Comprehensive solution or rolling regimes?

  19. Criteria for Regime Choice • Development: What will happen to development: in fast growing countries, in other countries? • Policy consistency: Can we bind future governments? Will the private sector believe it? • Simplicity: How transparent and direct? Are ancillary measures needed? Is there adequate experience (especially in the South) to operationalize on significant scale? • The trust deficit: Aid? Conditionality? Partnership? • Immediate action versus comprehensive solution?

  20. Why the singular focus on Emissions? • Position over emissions are too far apart and can only lead to a stalemate • Need for two separate strategies that can bring North and South as well as Climate and Development together • Emissions and markets for North, investment for South • Change in language: from “who did this” to “let the market do it” to “the public sector can lead this”

  21. Kartha et al’s Formulation 80% global reductions by 2050 What’s left for the South? 90% by 2050 in the North What kind of climate regime can make this possible?

  22. How about the other way around?

  23. CDM Critique “Mommy, where do carbon offsets come from”? “Well, you see, honey, when a polluter and a consultant love money very, very much, they come together in a very special way to produce an extremely long piece of paper”. Gar Lipow, Systems Analyst and Peace Activist, 2006 Cited in Carbon Trading, p. 61

  24. Policy Credibility • Can we bind future governments, democratic or otherwise • What about future uncertainties: political chaos, donor fatigue, fortress world • Are national policies credible? • Can governments take a passive role (let the market do it), or do they need to take risks and make bets? • Single or rolling plans?

  25. Investment Investment Fund: Global fund 1 per cent of world GNP for climate transition allocated mainly by population in the following areas: hydrogen spine for fuel cells, CCS, R&D, building GR-type network, sustainable cities Financing:progressive source by income rather than country. Technology Transfer: Support inter-locking institutions for extension, research, education, policy, inputs, credit, marketing. Integrated Goals: Sustainable development as well as climate stabilization and adaptation. North-South: Trading for N. Investment for S. Regulation: No coal plants without CCS. Suspend TRIPS. Moratorium on fuels

  26. What I hope from Bali • Fulfill Kyoto targets: E+F+T • Deeper targets for rich countries for 2020 (though still below what is needed) • Adaptation fund (including emergency response fund/ agency) • CBMs: (Kyoto targets), other ODA, win win investments • Investment in carbon free development plans + institutions for South • Negotiation platform on refining all above

  27. Beyond Rearranging Deckchairs

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