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Elliott Campbell Assistant Professor UC Merced

Bioenergy Sustainability: Want to get involved?. University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011. Elliott Campbell Assistant Professor UC Merced. Global trends for future resource needs. 50% increase in population by 2050 70% increase in food demand by 2050

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Elliott Campbell Assistant Professor UC Merced

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  1. Bioenergy Sustainability: Want to get involved? University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011 Elliott CampbellAssistant Professor UC Merced

  2. Global trends for future resource needs • 50% increase in population by 2050 • 70% increase in food demand by 2050 • 40% increase in energy demand by 2030 The challenge is not simply meeting increased demand, but doing so sustainably.

  3. Consequences of our utter dependenceon petroleum for transportation

  4. Global greenhouse emissions

  5. Biofuels as green alternatives

  6. Liquid Biofuel (EPA, 2010)

  7. Biopower (EIA, 2010)

  8. Bioenergy’s Sputnik Moment

  9. Why Bioenergy Sustainability? • Emerging policy innovations • Synergies with poverty alleviation • Perhaps better to ask “How?”

  10. Roadmap • How much land is available? • What are the life-cycle impacts? • What is bioenergy precarious role in the climate-energy nexus?

  11. 1) How much land is available?

  12. Quantifying Abandoned Agriculture 1) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE) 2) Exclude agriculture-to-forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1) 3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA) 4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands. 1700 1710 1720

  13. Cropland Time Series: Global

  14. Global Land Use (Campbell et al., ES&T, 2008)

  15. Bioenergy Without Land • Algae bioenergy sustainability (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011) • Wastewater co-benefits • Efficient harvesting with electrocoagulation and electrofloculation (Trent, 2010)

  16. Algae Harvesting Bottlekneck • Electrocoagulation / Electroflocculation • Surface charge analysis of algae • (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011)

  17. Bioenergy Land Summary • A global resource… Abandoned Agriculture • Regional opportunities… Mountaintop Mining • No land use… Offshore Algae • Not commercially viable yet • Electrochemical approach is emerging

  18. 2) What are the impacts?

  19. Uncertain Impacts of Biofuels

  20. Biofuels Life-cycle: Energy, GHG, Water ?

  21. Science Communication (Campbell et al., Science, 2009)

  22. How many miles per acre does your car get? a) Ethanol b) Bioelectricity (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, 2009)

  23. Energy Security is not independent of climate change Volatility = 15% Volatility = 30% (Campbell, Sloan, Snyder, et al., In Prep)

  24. Brazil (DOE, 2009)

  25. Sugarcane residue export… export to the US or use it in Brazil? • Converting Brazilian residue to electricity has greater GHG benefits than conversion to ethanol • Residue-based ethanol has small impact on US energy security but electricity would have massive impact on Brazilian energy security (Campbell & Block, ES&T, 2010)

  26. Optical Properties of Emmissions (Campbell et al., In Prep)

  27. Marginal Abatement Cost (McKinsey, 2007)

  28. Developing World Electrification Impacts (Casillas and Kammen, Science, 2010)

  29. What Really Drives Electricification of Rural Developing World? (McKuin & Campbell, In Prep)

  30. 3) What is the scale of the problem?

  31. Global greenhouse emissions What’s missing from this picture?

  32. Energy Wedges Are Changing? (Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004)

  33. Carbonyl Sulfide (COS, OCS, CSO) • Role in stratosphere (Crutzen, 1976) • A novel tracer of carbon sequestration?

  34. Vertical Profiles (Campbell et al., Science, 2008)

  35. New Simulations Suggest Larger Wedges (Campbell et al., In Prep)

  36. Summary

  37. Summary • Rapid growth with or without sustainability basis. • Resources available for a multi-disciplinary approach to bioenergy research and education. • Many opportunities for engaging with industry, policy, and mass media.

  38. Acknowledgments • NSF/CAREER (Env’l Sustainability Program #0955141) • DOE/Institute for Climatic Change (#050516Z30) • Stanford/Carnegie: Chris Field, Joe Berry, David Lobell • Iowa: Jerry Schnoor, Greg Carmichael • NASA: Stephanie Vay, Randy Kawa • Wonderful Students! Andrew Mckuin, Brandi McKuin, Chi-Chung Tsao, Patrick Wiley, Xianyu Yang

  39. Life-cycle Assessment Practice • Question: What are the life-cycle GHG emissions of ethanol (g CO2e MJ-1)? • Objective: Team presentations in 30 min (~4 slides) • Materials: http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/ecampbell3/ucsc/ • Approach: Modify a widely referenced LCA model (Farrell et al., Science, 2006) with updated information • Team 1: Crutzen et al. (N2O) • Team 2: Plevin et al. (Feedstock location) • Team 3: Searchinger et al. (Indirect land-use) • Team 4: Fargione et al. (Direct land-use)

  40. 4) How does this research and education benefit society?

  41. Service-Learning: Kiva.org

  42. Energy Service Corps

  43. Assessing Rural Development

  44. 209.631.9312 | ecampbell3@ucmerced.edu

  45. Climate and Income (Tilman , 2009)

  46. Food and Income (Tilman, 2009)

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