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Dr Ralf Schimmer Max Planck Digital Library Munich, Germany CNI Spring Conference 2015

Yes, we can! Financial evidence for a large-scale transformation of the current subscription journals to an OA model. Dr Ralf Schimmer Max Planck Digital Library Munich, Germany CNI Spring Conference 2015 Seattle, 13 th April 2015. Enough money in the system – savings to be expected.

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Dr Ralf Schimmer Max Planck Digital Library Munich, Germany CNI Spring Conference 2015

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  1. Yes, we can!Financial evidence for a large-scale transformation of the current subscription journals to an OA model Dr Ralf Schimmer Max Planck Digital Library Munich, Germany CNI Spring Conference 2015 Seattle, 13th April 2015

  2. Enough money in the system – savings to be expected • There is already sufficient money in the system of scholar communication • Additional resources won‘t be necessary • De facto, savings can be expected (technical simplifications, distribution & sales, etc.) The transformation of existing journals can be organized on the basis of the current subscription spending

  3. Global level view The global journal market and its financial dimensions Scenario of transformation based on current operating numbers per year Subscription market today Market volume $10 bn 1.5 M research papers (WoS); up to ~ 2 M overall $6,700 €/article WoS; $5,000/article overall After an OA transformation Basis volume $5 bn 2 M research papers $2,500 €/article1) Clear potential of savings & development based on realistic APC expectations1) An OA transformation seems to be possible without financial risks 1 The empirical values of SCOAP3 are 1,042 €/article for 2014; for MPG and DFG funded universities they are in the region of 1,200 €/article

  4. Global level view The transformation at work Global subscription market $10 bn p.a. Potential for new services $10 bn Global Open Access market$5 bn p.a. Subscription market 10% Open Access market share ~ 13% Spend Spend

  5. Country level view Publication volume of selected European countries Total publication volume Articles and reviews in Web of Science Germany Great Britain France The dark part of the columns marks the share of articles with a corresponding author from this country (≤70%) 120 100 80 Number of articles p.a. (in K) 60 40 ≤70% of articles are relevant to expenses 20 0 Year of the publication 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 De-duplication of data needed since not all publications are cost relevant in an OA world, but only those of corresponding authors

  6. Country level view Output volume and expenses in DE, UK, and FR Publication data 2013: >30% ~45% >200 109 103 >39% 72 71 70 >120 46 APC € 2,000 After an OA trans-formation Total number of articles (in K) Articles relevant to expenses (in K) Expenses Open Access (in M €) Expenses subscriptions (in M €) Compared to the current subscription spending, substantial savings are to be expected

  7. Country level view Close-up country view: share of major publishers in Germany 2013 Library expenses Publications Typical shares ofjournal expenses Share of publications with corresponding author Share of overall publications N = 103,000 journal publications Elsevier (14,000) Elsevier (21,000) Elsevier Wiley (9,000) no cost Springer (10,000) Wiley (13,000) Springer (13,000) Wiley Springer Assuming OA conditions, especially the expenses for the major commercial publishers would be substantially lower than in the current subscription market

  8. Institutional level view INVOICE The financial formula of the Max Planck Society Total paper output APC relevant share Average APC level monitored Expected total expenditure • Current average APC of €1,258, based on 1,046 APC invoices with a total spend (including taxes) of some €1.3 million [as of April 2015] • Our invoices documen-ted on github: https://github.com/OpenAPC/openapc-de • 10,000 research articles per year • Maximum of 6,000 (between 40-60% corresponding author papers) • This pattern is persistent across the various OA publishers and stable over time • 6,000 x average APC + safety margin ≤ €12 million • These anticipated costs are very comfortably within our current spending levels Conclusion The Max Planck Society as a heavily output-oriented research organization is able and committed to make the transformation

  9. Detach and change the business model (i.e. cash flow) Functions and enabling elements of the publishing system POTENTIAL FUTURE SCENARIOS Alternative metrics Open reference and citation database CONCEPT IN PROGRESS AND UNDER (CONSTANT) DEBATES New toolsand services Etc. ∞ ingenuity Brand value CORE FUNCTIONS Usage andimpact indicators Career considerations Certification Dissemination Quality indicators Research evaluation Archival record Registration Underlying business model of the publishing system • Read-access cash flow • Toll-access system • Inherently restricted in use • Publication service based cash flow • Open access system • Inherently open in use and re-use The cash flow can be changed without impacting the functions of publishing

  10. Disrupt the subscription system Ultimately, all subscription spending must be stopped.The money currently locked in the journal subscription system must be withdrawn and re-purposed for OA services.

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