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4th NTA Workshop Berkeley, January 2007

4th NTA Workshop Berkeley, January 2007. Population Aging and NTA in Japan. Naohiro Ogawa, Maliki, Rikiya Matsukura and Kazuro Nemoto. Trend in Total Fertility Rate, Japan: 1947-2005. Trend in the synthetic proportion still single at age 50. Male. Female.

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4th NTA Workshop Berkeley, January 2007

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  1. 4th NTA WorkshopBerkeley, January 2007 Population Aging and NTA in Japan Naohiro Ogawa, Maliki, Rikiya Matsukura and Kazuro Nemoto

  2. Trend in Total Fertility Rate, Japan: 1947-2005

  3. Trend in the synthetic proportion still single at age 50 Male Female Note: The synthetic proportion still single at age 50 is calculated from age-specific first-marriage rates in the specified calendar year.

  4. Trend in life expectancy at birth in OECD countries, both sexes combined,1960-2001

  5. Proportion 65 and over:1884-2006

  6. Forecast numbers of female centenarians UN Government

  7. The Japanese population has just become the oldest in the world and has started to decline!

  8. Projected total population, 2000-2025 Billion 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.2 1.19 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year

  9. And massive age structural shifts!

  10. Age structural change: 1950-2025 65+/15-64 0-14/15-64

  11. Social security benefits / National income Pension benefits / National income Medical expenditure / National income

  12. Monthly income (revenue from tax and others) $4,000 Consumption (government expenditure) $3,700 Remittance (grants to local government) $1,200 Paying loan (government bond) $1,500 Debt (government debt) $520,000 Deficit per month $4000-$3700-$1200-$1500=-$2400 Japan is a pitiful state of public finance Household as like…..

  13. Here comes The most important graph in Japan!

  14. Working life expectancy at age 15 (Unit: years)

  15. Crossing ages

  16. Intervivos Transfers Asset Reallocation Public Transfers Labor Income

  17. Asset Reallocation Intervivos Transfers Labor Income Public Transfers

  18. Japan NTA team’s next steps

  19. Policy Implication using NTA results

  20. Pronatalist favorite assertion: • Only 3.6% of social security benefits is children-specific; while • 70.4% of social security benefits is for the elderly (60+)

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