STW & NSW METOC Metrics: Operational Modeling Update

STW & NSW METOC Metrics:Operational Modeling Update Paul Vodola and Luke Piepkorn 18 May 2007

Outline • STW & WIAT • Final WIAT Upgrade • WIAT SimBinder Software • Sample Analyses • Transition Update • NSW • METOC Threshold Database Compilation • Generic Mission Planning Timeline • Preliminary Modeling Thoughts • Next Steps

Final WIAT Upgrade • Automated Interface with ESG • “Push-button” formatting for all weather features considered in WIAT • Lat-Long translation of data from any location • Enables investigation of weather streams from other regions • Transforms ESG spatial resolution to WIAT spatial resolution • ESG = 1/3o – WIAT = 1/2o • Automated Output Processor • “Push-button” formatting for certain key output parameters • Generates results charts for the three key metrics categories • METOC Performance Metrics • FAC, POD • METOC Impact Metrics • Mission Saves, Mission Change Recommendation Accuracy • Operational Metrics • Sorties Flown, Sorties Cancelled due to Wx, Target Kills per Mission

Final WIAT Upgrade • Forecasting Methodologies • Perfect Environmental Knowledge • Produces baseline output for comparisons • Best case scenario if 100% of METOC recommendations are accepted • Gaussian Random Forecasting • Actual weather feature provides distribution mean • User inputs standard deviation for both Execution & Planning forecasts • Time-Shift Forecasting • Enables investigation of the impact of mistiming the prediction of significant weather events • Actual weather from another timeframe used as forecast • User Inputs number of 6 hour blocks to shift for both Execution & Planning forecasts • Location-Shift Forecasting • Enables investigation of the effects of errors in significant weather events location • Actual weather from another environment grid will be used as forecast • User inputs number of environment cells to shift vertically horizontally • Percent Accuracy Random Forecasting • Enables integration with online data collection & metrics system • User inputs forecaster % accuracy for Green, Yellow, & Red weather • User Input Forecast • Enables user to determine forecasts for all weather features and forecasts

WIAT Launch Screen

Forecast Methodology Selection • Weather Prediction Methodology is chosen through the use of a pull down menu • Methods 1-4 are generated automatically by the tool.

Tabular Input Toolbar • Each tab in the toolbar contains parameters associated with that category of input values

Detailed Parameter Information Details for each parameter include variable type, valid inputs, and notes describing how the value impacts the case

Sample Input Categories

Sample Analyses • Parametric analysis based on each of the automated forecast methodologies • Time-Shift Forecasts • Location-Shift Forecasts • Gaussian Random Forecasts • Percent Accuracy Forecasts • Displays the range of possible analyses which can be completed using WIAT • To be shown during WIAT training workshops / seminars • Output is currently being analyzed

Create a comprehensive, hands-on introduction to the capability & functionality of WIAT • Describe potential applications of the SimBinder tool • Present results from sample analyses • ~4-5 hour timeframe WORKSHOP GOALS WIAT Training WorkshopDraft Agenda • Introduction to WIAT Briefing (60-75 minutes) • Introduce key components of model • Introduce philosophy on WIAT applications • Short WIAT demo • Runtime display features • Data Input Lab (30-45 minutes) • Introduce data input process • Operational vs METOC inputs • Input locations • Input formats & functionality • Analyses Results Briefing (60 - 75 minutes) • Describe Sample WIAT applications • Analyses Results Briefing • Data Output Lab (30-45 minutes) • Introduce output format & statistics • Operational vs METOC outputs • Output Location • Output processor functionality • End-to-End WIAT Application (30-45 minutes)

OPNAV Transition Update • Goal: • Introduce WIAT to representatives of the World Class Modeling Initiative & personnel from the Sea Strike branch of OPNAV N81 • Provide WIAT as a software tool for use in future analyses and assessments • Meeting scheduled for May 24 • Attendees include: • LCDR Jeff DeBrine – Director WCM • Chrissy Juergens – Studies Director for N81 Sea Strike • LCDR Lance Lantier – Maritime/Littoral Ops Analyst for N81 Sea Strike

ESG Tutorial • ESG tutorial has been developed for in-house (SPA) users of WIAT • Rudimentary introduction into the ESG online database • Outlines the process for downloading METOC feature data for use in WIAT and other modeling applications • Is this useful to present during WIAT Training?

Outline • STW & WIAT • Final WIAT Upgrade • WIAT SimBinder Software • Sample Analyses • Transition Update • NSW • METOC Threshold Database Compilation • Generic Mission Planning Timeline • Next Steps

SOF-METOC Database • Compilation of database describing effects of METOC features on of SOF operations • Feature thresholds • Operations & equipment impacted • Compiled from a variety of resources including: • Joint METOC Handbook • JTS/IWEDA • Critical METOC Thresholds for SOF Operations • NLMOC • Joint Doctrine & TTPS for METOC Database Sample

Planning and Mission Execution TimelineGeneric SOF Mission

Deliberate Planning Timeline • METOC Impact on long-term planning & COA decisions • Greater than 1 day lead time

Deliberate Planning Timeline • METOC Impact on detailed short-term mission planning • Less than 24 hours lead time

Deliberate Planning Timeline • METOC Impact on pre-execution timeline • Asset changes, COA rebrief, shifted execution times

Next Steps • Use database to determine operational impact thresholds for significant METOC features SWH Prediction Accuracy Too large for Boat Ops Actual Risk to Ops No Impact on Operations Predicted

Next Steps • Develop mission-level TACSIT model for Small Boat operations including • Small boat insertion/extraction of NSW personnel • DA mission • Mission planning process & timeline • Critical METOC factors & thresholds from SPA database • Features • Inputs to MPP • Prediction lead times • Decision rules

Next Steps • Use operational modeling to determine regions of acceptable METOC prediction performance SWH Prediction Accuracy Severe Under-Prediction Extreme inaccuracy in prediction of SWH impacts selection of insertion asset Too large for Boat Ops Actual Risk to Ops Severe Over-Prediction No Impact on Operations Predicted

STW & NSW METOC Metrics: Operational Modeling Update