1. Dr Brad Morantz bradscientist@machine-cognition.com Spreadsheet Modeling

2. Background Almost everyone has a spreadsheet at their desk Few have mod/sim packages at their desk Arena costs $18K OpNet is $45K Sometimes need to do Proof of Concept Need to insure testing in corners of envelope of variable space

3. DASE? DOE? DASE = Design & Analysis of Simulation Experiments DOE = Design of Experiment An experiment must be properly designed to produce realistic and quality results An experiment must try out all ranges of potential values Search the corners of the envelope Brad’s Theorem: Every system has a point in variable space where the system goes ‘postal’

4. Advantages Availability of software Clear box Can see what is going on inside Can make changes easily Can make changes and see what happens Many plug-ins to enhance performance and presentation

5. DASE Advantages Design Easy to change input variables Easy to monitor/see input values Scenario Manager Analysis Easy to create links to analysis Many analysis tools in spreadsheet Graph/Chart in spread sheet

6. DASE Considerations Input values must reach the “corners of the envelope” Volume filling in variable space Easy to implement test matrix Values must be realistic Can not have impossible combinations

7. First Exposure I saw this first time teaching in the B school at GSU Can quickly build spreadsheet model to make business decisions I built a spreadsheet model to track my mortgage Found 3 mistakes Saved $1000’s

8. Business Model Want to hold Rock Concert to make $ Name band costs $10K to appear $1 a head over 5000 people Local band is $1K Attract more people Concessions 25% profit Sell more on hot days Etc, Etc, but can we make a profit? DASE considerations!

9. Science Problem Have a MP Computer MIMD capable Have lots of data arriving daily How to optimize throughput Built spreadsheet model Allowed me to wipe out sections Simulated down time Results proof of concept Bought me a Arena Over doubled throughput DASE considerations

10. Projectile Input angle and muzzle velocity Need to know how far it will go Only realistic ranges for both variables Can see all values as it travels Easy to plot trajectory DASE Considerations Sample program

11. Guided Weapon Have weapon Given specifications Calculate SSPD Then have guided weapon Calculate SSPD Multiple guided weapon w/ unitary target Calculate SSPDn Sample program

12. Acronyms SSPD Single Shot Probability of Damage CEP circular error probable REP range error probable DEP deflection error probable SR slant range There are plenty more, see reference next slide

13. References Weaponeering, Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness, Morris R Driels Numerous books on Spreadsheet modeling (all are on business applications) contact me if need info

14. Big Thanks To Will Haas who loaned me the Weaponeering book and who taught me much about this. He was very patient and I appreciate it.