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3. Post-9/11 US Strategy

3. Post-9/11 US Strategy. How much has changed? How much has stayed the same?. Then Everything Changed Or Did It?. Pentagon. Traditional Threats. Nation-state rivalries Hegemon vs. Rising Challenger VS. New Threats Emerge. Non-state Actors Ideology Disruption Global Insurgency

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3. Post-9/11 US Strategy

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  1. 3. Post-9/11 US Strategy • How much has changed? • How much has stayed the same?

  2. Then Everything ChangedOr Did It?

  3. Pentagon

  4. Traditional Threats • Nation-state rivalries • Hegemon vs. Rising Challenger VS.

  5. New Threats Emerge • Non-state Actors • Ideology • Disruption • Global Insurgency • Loosely connected networks • From AQAM to transnational organized crime

  6. AQAM Power Projection2003-2011

  7. Why Non-State Actors have Power Globalization • Ease of travel • Ease of global finance • Communications revolution States • Ability to communicate lose their globally monopoly • Information revolution on • Ability to share large influence amounts of information with and anyone, anywhere, anytime violence • Global spread of technology

  8. GW Bush National Security Strategy Maintain Core Strategy • Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense • Forward Presence • Peacetime Military Strength • Own the sea • NATO and other alliances • Free Trade and Commerce • Spread Democracy**

  9. Innovations? • Deter peer competitors • Deal with regional powers seeking WMD • Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War” • Spread Democracy

  10. 1. Deter Peer Competitors

  11. Seapower • Forward Presence • Power Projection • “1-4-2-1” Capability

  12. 2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD “Axis of Evil” • Isolation • sanctions • Preemption • Regime change

  13. 3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”

  14. 4. Spread Democracy • Neoconservatism • Stability Operations • COIN • US Army FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, 2006 • US State Department Counterinsurgency Manual

  15. US Domiance:Global Military Spending SIPRI data http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010

  16. Building World Order • On global scale • Regionally: Regime Change and Democracy Building • Afghanistan • Iraq • Street by street Limits to this strategy?

  17. Clear Limits

  18. Obama Strategy Maintain Core Strategy • Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense • Forward Presence • Peacetime Military Strength • Own the sea • NATO and other alliances • Free Trade and Commerce • Spread Democracy**

  19. Innovations? 1. Recognition of new international order • Interdependence • Globalization • Rise of new powers

  20. 2. US still wants to shape international order Power projection (US and UK Carriers)

  21. Preparing for A2AD Strategies • Anti-Access/Area-Denial strategies • China’s DF-21D

  22. 3. Focus on Non-state Actors AQAM Osama bin-Laden May 2011 AQAP Anwar al-Awlaki September 2011

  23. OUT IN (for training, joint exercises, or longer term deployments) Uganda Australia Djibouti Niger Indonesia… • Iraq • Afghanistan

  24. Drone Strikes (Yemen 2002-2012)

  25. 4. Defend Global Commons

  26. 5. Pivot to Asia Defense Guidance2012: • Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership Priorities for 21st Century Defense Clinton at East-West Center • “America's Engagement in the Asia-Pacific” text

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