1 / 19

Spring Indices

Spring Indices. Continental-scale phenological models. Lilac First Leaf. Lilac First Bloom. Lilac Phenological Observation Sites Years of Observation, 1956-2003. Cloned lilac first leaf and first bloom dates at a single station in Vermont. Model Rationale. Estimating Chilling Requirements.

josie
Télécharger la présentation

Spring Indices

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Spring Indices Continental-scale phenological models

  2. Lilac First Leaf

  3. Lilac First Bloom

  4. Lilac Phenological Observation SitesYears of Observation, 1956-2003

  5. Cloned lilac first leaf and first bloom datesat a single station in Vermont

  6. Model Rationale

  7. Estimating Chilling Requirements

  8. Lilac Chill Unit Determination

  9. Model ConstructionDSH = days since start of heat unit accumulation • (1000/DSH) = Regression Constant + (A1*X1/DSH) + (A2*X2/DSH) + . . . (An*Xn/DSH) • Multiply through by DSH to transform into 1000 = (Regression Constant*DSH) + (A1*X1) + (A2*X2) + . . . (An*Xn)

  10. Structure of Spring Indices Models

  11. Spring Indices Suite of Measures • First -2.2oC freeze date in Autumn • Composite chill date (SI models) • First leaf date (SI models) • First bloom date (SI models) • Last -2.2oC freeze date in Spring • -2.2oC Freeze period • Damage index value (first leaf – last frost) • Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve average monthly temperatures

  12. SI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 Slope Source: Schwartz et al. 2006, Global Change Biology, Figure 1

  13. North America SI First Leaf Date Departures Source: Schwartz and Reiter 2000, Int. J. Climatology, Plate 4 (updated)

  14. North Amer. Last –2.2oC Freeze Date Departures Source: Schwartz (unpublished)

  15. Spring Indices First Bloom Date

  16. SI Damage Index Value 1961-2000 Slope(SI First Leaf Date – Last Freeze Date) Source: Schwartz et al. 2006, Global Change Biology, Figure 5

  17. SI First Bloom – First Leaf Difference Source: Hanes and Schwartz (unpublished)

  18. Integrated ApproachExample: WisconsinZhao and Schwartz (2003) • Satellite phenology (DMA SOS) • Simulated phenology (SI first bloom dates) • “Native” species phenology (WPS records of first bloom date for 21 introduced and 32 native species)

  19. Integrated Species Indices (ISI)southwestern Wisconsin Source: Zhao & Schwartz 2003, Climate Research, Figure 4a (in color)

More Related