1. Spring Indices Continental-scale phenological models

2. Lilac First Leaf

3. Lilac First Bloom

4. Lilac Phenological Observation SitesYears of Observation, 1956-2003

5. Cloned lilac first leaf and first bloom datesat a single station in Vermont

6. Model Rationale

7. Estimating Chilling Requirements

8. Lilac Chill Unit Determination

9. Model ConstructionDSH = days since start of heat unit accumulation • (1000/DSH) = Regression Constant + (A1*X1/DSH) + (A2*X2/DSH) + . . . (An*Xn/DSH) • Multiply through by DSH to transform into 1000 = (Regression Constant*DSH) + (A1*X1) + (A2*X2) + . . . (An*Xn)

10. Structure of Spring Indices Models

11. Spring Indices Suite of Measures • First -2.2oC freeze date in Autumn • Composite chill date (SI models) • First leaf date (SI models) • First bloom date (SI models) • Last -2.2oC freeze date in Spring • -2.2oC Freeze period • Damage index value (first leaf – last frost) • Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve average monthly temperatures

12. SI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 Slope Source: Schwartz et al. 2006, Global Change Biology, Figure 1

13. North America SI First Leaf Date Departures Source: Schwartz and Reiter 2000, Int. J. Climatology, Plate 4 (updated)

14. North Amer. Last –2.2oC Freeze Date Departures Source: Schwartz (unpublished)

15. Spring Indices First Bloom Date

16. SI Damage Index Value 1961-2000 Slope(SI First Leaf Date – Last Freeze Date) Source: Schwartz et al. 2006, Global Change Biology, Figure 5

17. SI First Bloom – First Leaf Difference Source: Hanes and Schwartz (unpublished)

18. Integrated ApproachExample: WisconsinZhao and Schwartz (2003) • Satellite phenology (DMA SOS) • Simulated phenology (SI first bloom dates) • “Native” species phenology (WPS records of first bloom date for 21 introduced and 32 native species)

19. Integrated Species Indices (ISI)southwestern Wisconsin Source: Zhao & Schwartz 2003, Climate Research, Figure 4a (in color)