Green Car China

1. Green Car China Sustainable Consumption WeekMaya Ben Dror, June 2014

2. Agenda • The role of cars in combating air pollution • Why not get rid of cars? • What is a green car? • The Green Car China system • 2014 highlights • The complex transport ecosystem • So, what?

3. The role of cars in combating air pollution 74 major cities failed to meet national air quality criteria 2/3 of the year. Cars account for: 22%-33% PM2.5 40%-70%CO2 City transportation is 1/7 emissions sources addressed the “Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Action Plan” (September 2013) Beijing Municipal Transport Commission http://www.zhb.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/qt/201403/t20140325_269651.htm Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau http://www.bjepb.gov.cn/bjepb/323474/331443/331937/333896/396191/index.html

4. So why not get rid of cars? RealisticallyCar ownership is a major mean for socio-economic mobility ConceptuallyDeveloping and developed nations: equity is instrumental for strengthening partnerships StrategicallyThe auto industry is one of China’s pillar growth engines 21 million (2013) 16% growth (world avg. is 5%) 5th year global leader

5. What is a green car? Fuel Production, Distribution& Storage Vehicle Use Phase Vehicle Production EmissionsStandards Fuel Type Fuel Consumption Vehicle Curb Weight Fuel Type FuelConsumption Health & GHG Effects10% GHG Effect45% Health Effects45% Environmental Impact Score (EIR): Worst 5 -> Best 0 Normalized: GR=10-2.5×EIR Environmentally Friendly Vehicle Rating (GR): Worst 0 -> Best 10

6. The Green Car China system

7. 2014 highlights The sales of China’s top 10 best rated cars reached 1.78 million sales, accounting for 10% of the annual total passenger vehicle sales. The average smog index of China’s “hottest” cars is poor, indicating there is little consumer awareness, need for emissions reduction technologies, and much room for vehicle emissions enforcement. * This term is based on a relative-rating, where vehicle rated five stars if it is among the top 5% performing of all vehicles of model year 2013 while vehicle rated one star is among the lowest rated groups which accounts for 51%-100%. ** This year’s smog is represented by figures provided by MEP-VECC (for 94% of the rated vehicles, for others an average of VECC’s provided figure per segment is used). The figure encounters CO, HC, NOx, and PM (weighted 0.007, 0.075, 1, 8.03 respectively, following ACEEE).

8. 2014 highlights: you would expect more of small cars… An illustration of China’s 2014 Top 10 Small Cars by Smog Index and Green Rating: you would expect small cars to perform well… 100k sales, -3% growth 55k sales, 18% growth 110k sales, -23% growth Note: bubble size indicated 2013 sales volume.

9. 2014 highlights: 50% of the market is on the wall The compact car segment is the largest car segment in China accounting for half of China’s top 50 models (by sales) and capturing the top three places. The top 10 compact cars received an average green rating score of 6.35 and an average smog value of 4.2. 118k sales, -18% growth 380k sales, 52% growth Note: bubble size indicated 2013 sales volume.

10. 2014 highlights: Imported perform well! • The large car segment (e.g. Audi A6) is popular among officials and large income households in China. Although the displacement of this segment is not low (as indicated by the low green score), air quality indicators show values which are closer to hybrid vehicles than to the midsize and compact segments’ finalists. 127k sales, 23% growth 3.8k sales, -32% growth Note: bubble size indicated 2013 sales volume; majority of models in this segment lack official sales figures thus an average is used as a default value.

11. 2014 highlights: SUVs – a glimpse into the future? • Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs), both sedan comfort and off-road vehicles, experienced over 20% growth in 2011 and 2012 and reached growth rate of over 50% last year. Fortunately, the best-selling urban-style SUVs have fuel consumption similar to midsize cars sold in China. 77k sales, -27% growth 13k sales, -4% growth Note: bubble size indicated 2013 sales volume.

12. 2014 highlights: Green rating and smog can go sideways… Hybrid cars perform well on both the comprehensive environmental impact level (green score) and air quality level (smog index) –China’s top four greenest cars are all hybrid vehicles. Although small cars typically have low fuel consumption and high green scores, their tailpipe pollutant emissions are high. SUVs and MPVs of Chinese manufacturing scores indicate similar issues: relatively moderate fuel consumption and green scores but high tailpipe pollutant emissions.

13. 2014 highlights: JP and KR rock! • Japanese and Korean JV brands perform best on both green score and smog index. • Chinese independent brands receive high green rating relative to European brands; however have the worst smog index…

14. The complex car regulatory ecosystem

15. So, what? Take action! Spread the worduse our EFV system and social network Engage via policies, studies, education, marketing… Collaborate …the whole is greater than its parts

16. 2014 Annual Green Car ChinaPress Release Conference June 13, 2-4pm at the Olympic Village Maya.bd@icet.org.cn

17. Thank you For your Support! Maya Ben Dror Room 1904, e-Tower Building No. C12 GuanghuaRdChaoyang District, Beijing, 100020 P. R. ChinaT: 8610 65857324 | F: 8610 65857394www.icet.org.cn | maya.bd@icet.org.cn