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Challenges for a Zero Net Energy Building Sector

This briefing explores the challenges in achieving a zero net energy building sector, focusing on energy wastage, energy reduction targets, and the three levers for transformation. It also discusses stakeholder behaviors, policy complexities, and the potential impact of various technologies and policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The WBCSD model evaluates these factors to assess the overall impact and cost incurred by stakeholders from 2005 to 2050.

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Challenges for a Zero Net Energy Building Sector

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  1. WBCSD EEB PROJECTChallenges Towards Achieving a Zero Net Energy Building Sector William Sisson, UTC, WBCSD EEB Co-chair Lafarge Briefing November, 2008

  2. WBCSD EEB Project A world where buildings consume zero net energy Energy efficiency first From the business voice Launch and lead sector transformation “Sustainable” buildings (TBL) Communicate openly with markets

  3. Challenge 1 91% Amount of energy wasted from source to useful work?

  4. Challenge 2 94% Amount of energy reduction needed in new buildings to maintain 2002 current carbon levels?

  5. Challenge 3 54% Amount of energy reduction needed in all buildings to maintain 2002 current carbon levels?

  6. EEB’s Three Levers

  7. CEO Expectations The goal is the first quantitative look ever at what may be accomplished economically to reduce energy demand and CO2 … We expect a persuasive result.

  8. Global Scenarios

  9. Stakeholders & Behavior Diverse Participants Know-how & Commitment

  10. Policy and Sector Complexities Residential Envelope Retrofits Residential Electronics Commercial CHP Commercial Building Controls $ / ton CO2 30 Residential Lighting Residential Hot Water 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Potential Gigatons C02 -30 Industry CHP -60 Biofuels Commercial Envelope New Construction -90 Residential Envelope New Construction Commercial LED Lighting Commercial CFL Lighting Commercial Electronics • Net Negative Cost • Abatement Options • Will they be adopted? • At what cost? • Over what time horizon? • How do they interact? • Resulting impact? • How to incentivize? Source: McKinsey, Dec. 2007; Reducing US Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How much and at what cost?

  11. We Need a Model! That gives us the ability to assess … What solutions will key stakeholders (i.e. decision makers) adopt? What is the submarket energy and emission impact of adopted technologies? How will various policy actions affect stakeholder selections? How will potential scenarios and exogenous factors affect stakeholder decisions? The WBCSD model evaluates energy and CO2 emissions in the context of adoption characteristics and building system interactions

  12. Model Characteristics eQuest/DOE2 (Energy Balance) Decision, Diffusion And Stock Model INPUT CALCULATION OUTPUT Construction Options User Behaviors Decision Variables Exogenous Variables Strategies (Policies) CO2 Generation Stock Energy Usage Cost to Owners Cost to Gov’t Calculations determine preferred options and how they would be adopted Data on energy usage and decision criteria, combined with policy actions that may affect stakeholder decisions Output allows comparison of overall impact and cost incurred by critical stakeholders from 2005 to 2050 time horizon

  13. Policies and Submarkets Plug Loads Appliances Hot Water Cooking Lighting Ventilation Cooling Heating Homes, Europe, Cold, Low CO2 Grid Homes, US, Warm, High CO2 Grid Office, Japan, Warm, Modest CO2 Grid Low Growth High Growth No Growth Coming soon: Developing markets, retail sectors, …

  14. Initial Findings … Increased Policy/Technology Aggressiveness Policy Strategy and Technology Interactions Per building CO2 Reduction from 2005 baseline High Cost, High Impact Low Cost, Marginal or Negative Impact INCREASING COSTS  Ref: Residential Home, Cold climate in low carbon grid (EU)

  15. Policies and Time Horizons Don’t bring about market adoption of more effective options CO2 Plug Loads Appliances Hot Water Cooking Lighting Heating Incentives < 5yr payback horizon No incentives Unaided adoption < 5yr payback horizon Ref: Residential, Cold climate in low carbon grid (FR)

  16. Financial Considerations 5 year investment horizon 4x Energy Price CO2 Segment Energy Consumption, kWh/yr Segment CO2 emissions, tCO2/yr Plug Loads Appliances Hot Water Cooking Lighting Heating Ref: Residential, Cold climate in low carbon grid (FR)

  17. Labeling, Fees, and Incentives Utility Rate “Carbon” Fees Could Offset Incentive Costs CO2 Plug Loads Adoption Policies Appliances Hot Water Cooking Lighting Ventilation Cooling Heating Label Based Policies Effect of incentives on A & B and disincentives on E-G

  18. WBCSD EEB Project A world where buildings consume zero net energy Stakeholder perceptions Differing scenarios playing out Submarket decision modeling – more action is needed Is the good news real? Manifesto coming

  19. Project Timeline “Setting Direction” Report Qualitative & Quantitative Assessments Recommendations to Transform Building Sector Setting Direction “Facts & Trends” Report Manifesto Final Report (Action Plan) Formally Announce Project (Beijing) 2009 2006 2007 2008 Assurance Group Assurance Group Assurance Group

  20. Public comment until November 10! http://www.depweb.state.pa.us/energy/cwp/view.asp?a=1532&q=539829&energyNav=|

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