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Margaret Giles, PhD

Meta regression analysis framework: the effectiveness of correctional education in reducing recidivism. Margaret Giles, PhD. Paper presented to MAER-Net Colloquium, University of Athens, Greece, 12 September 2014. Take home message.

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Margaret Giles, PhD

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  1. Meta regression analysis framework: the effectiveness of correctional education in reducing recidivism Margaret Giles, PhD Paper presented to MAER-Net Colloquium, University of Athens, Greece, 12 September 2014

  2. Take home message • Question 1: What study characteristics are driving the difference between effect sizes in studies of the effectiveness of correctional education? • Question 2: How is the effectiveness of correctional education measured? • Recidivism (Davis et al 2013) • Post release employment (Davis et al 2013) • Post release welfare dependence (Giles and Whale 2014)

  3. Studies of effectiveness of correctional education on recidivism • Many • Most show positive effects or NPV > 0 • Study in prison reduces the propensity to offend • Increases the opportunity cost of crime • Reduces impatience/time discount rates so more risk averse • Irrespective of how recidivism is defined • Re-offending • More charges • More and/or longer consecutive custodial sentences • Sentences for more serious offences • Shorter time in the community between consecutive prison terms

  4. Re-incarceration • Time • Within one year • Within two years • Within the limit of the data • Within seven years • Within four years • Within n or N+ years • Offence • Only counted if it is a new offence • Counted for new offence and/or breach of parole or other breaches in relation to previous offence (whatever reason)

  5. Types of data • Justice system data (total offending history) • Same name? • Are previous records good enough? • Prison data • Sample data • Prison AND employment data (Nally et al. 2012) • Matched data (UK Ministry of Justice 2010)

  6. Data and methodology Davis et al 2013 systematic review of 50 studies of the effectiveness of correctional education • Concluded that correctional education does reduce recidivism and is cost effective. • Only US studies • 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011 • Recidivism, employment and achievement test scores

  7. Figure 1: Frequency distribution of studies by publication date (Davis et al. 2013)

  8. Figure 2: Distribution of odds ratios for effect size estimates (Davis et al. 2013)

  9. Where to from here? • Co-researcher - Dr James Fogarty, The University of Western Australia (Stanley et al. 2013 Guidelines for MRA) • MRA on 50 studies • MRA on 50+ studies • Outside the US (international) • After 31 December 2011 (more recent)

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