Post-2015: Learning from the MDG experience

1. Post-2015: Learning from the MDG experience A Cautiously Optimistic View Aniket Bhushan Governance for Equitable Growth &Canadian International Development Platform The North-South Institute

2. Outline • About NSI and CIDP • Post-2015 research at NSI • MDG experience: on track but off the mark? • Key blind-spot and the way forward • New way of thinking about development frameworks post-2015

3. About NSI CIDPNSI.ca Web-based data & analytics platform on Canada’s engagement with the developing world Leverage open data, open government Organize, interpret, analyze a range of data through fast and interactive analytical dashboards Turning open data into better policy through collaborative inquiry • First, and only think tank dedicated to international development research in Canada • No. 1 small think tank globally by McGann survey 2011 • Three thematic areas: • Governance for Equitable Growth • Governance of Natural Resources • Fragile and Conflict Affected States

4. MDG experience • Focus: 8 easy to understand, globally agreed goals • What to measure, how, development progress • What to spend on • Reductionist • Imprecise • Not dynamic • Outputs only • Rank, name, shame

5. MDG: Successes

6. MDG: Successes

7. MDG: Successes?

8. Consequence of imprecision

9. What is happening to global poverty? • 1981 to 2008, 648.84 million have been taken out of $1.25/day chronic poverty (from 1990 to 2008 the number is similar at 619.64 million) • China: 662.14million (or 510.22 between 1990 and 2008) • Without China, target unmet • World Bank’s 2005 ICP revised PPP data (cost of living from China, India) • ‘Found’ 400 million more chronic poor (2010)

10. The Key Blind-Spot: Distribution

11. The Key Blind-Spot: Distribution

12. The Key Blind-Spot: Distribution Distributional blind-spots and children • Inequality (available income per child) TWICE as high as general inequality • Child in richest 10% household has 35x available income poorest 10% • Gap grown 35% since 1990 • Inequality has intergenerational and compound effect on children

13. The Key Blind-Spot: Distribution E.g. of compounded effects • Nigeria: U5 mortality national decline • U5 mortality lowest vs. top 10%: 2x • Urban: 121/1000; Rural: 191 • Deaths per 1000 live births (child): top 20 – 87; bottom – 219 • Infant mortality: South-West 89/1000; North-East 222/1000

14. Assessing proposals on the way forward Post-2015 universe • 22 official proposals and discussion papers • 640 targets and indicators proposed (provisional data)

15. Assessing proposals on the way forward • We organize goals, targets, indicators into 15 thematic areas • Infrastructure, health & nutrition – highest frequency; children/youth, environment, governance, peace & security, equality, key areas of expansion over MDG • Disaster resilience, employment emerging areas, social protection underdeveloped

16. Assessing proposals on the way forward BUT • “Equity” has huge weaknesses (technical, political) • Lacks anchor

17. Assessing proposals on the way forward • “Inequalities in…”? • “Inequality itself…”?

18. Targeting Equity • More than one (3) ways of thinking about inequality (level of analysis) • Uncertain, diverse determinants • Non-constant, non-linear, trend pace • Interactions and compounding effects • Limits of progressive redistribution • Policy – highly contexual

19. Targeting Equity • Below US$ 700 per cap income –povredc via redistribution- theoretically impossible • Country capacity split (>US$ 2000, US$2000-4000); latter can via marginal taxes, former very difficult • Non-constant, non-linear effects further complicate (short vs. long run)

20. Targeting Equity International community does not have good advice: • Developing countries = be like Brazil! • Not feasible for all, not just transfers, macro stability, inflation control, constitutional changes. But remember, even now Brazil top 10 = 55x bottom!! • Advanced = be like Nordics!

21. What is happening to global inequality? • The “world” as if it were ONE “country” • “World” inequality >>> typical country • “World” inq. driven by BETWEEN country inq. • Gini: 0.70 (1993); 0.67 (2007) • World inq. DECLINING, catch-up (China, India); within country inq. rising • Bottom 80% of world pop. INCREASED their share of world income from 24% (1993) to 28% (2005) – but this is too small

22. What is happening to global inequality? • 78 data points (developing countries, sub-national) 1990-2011 • 43 inequality increased: ranging from 4%year to 0.2% (Uganda); China (1.8) • 35 inequality declined: ranging from -3%year to -0.01%; Brazil (-0.05) • Majority trend swap 90s vs. 2000s

23. Equity: 2015 Bottom-line • Equity targeting has major technical, political weaknesses (not unlike poverty, and for similar technical reasons) • But further – lacks political anchor

24. New way of thinking Occam’s Razor • Conflict between inherent complexity of issues, uncertainty of measures and need for simplicity for consensus • Complicated framework – risks collapse under its own weight • Imprecision risks irrelevance – both from a public relations perspective; incentives/results management perspective

25. New way of thinking • Viewing inequality from the perspective of inequality of opportunity for children, presents the most powerful entry point (anchor) for success in post-2015 discussions

26. New way of thinking • Ways of thinking about “indicators”: not as target (naming, shaming) but as diagnostic tool • Moving from OUTPUT-RANKING to OUTCOME-DIAGNOSTIC • Too much emphasis on WHAT: country-level (official) output counts (e.g. enrollment rates); ranks • Shift focus to HOW: results achieved

27. New way of thinking • Agreement on a global standard for disaggregated data gathering, and investing in this capacity would be the single most important benefit of a post-2015 equity agenda • Getting precise, limiting to only OBJECTIVE measures • Getting serious about how we know what we know and how we communicate progress

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