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Update On The ROK Energy Sector and The ROK LEAP Model

Update On The ROK Energy Sector and The ROK LEAP Model. May 13, 2005. Asian Energy Security Workshop, Nautilus. Update on the ROK Energy Sector The ROK LEAP Model. Major Energy & Economic Indicatior. Note: GDP is constant value of 1995. Consumption Shares by Source(2004).

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Update On The ROK Energy Sector and The ROK LEAP Model

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  1. Update On The ROK Energy Sector and The ROK LEAP Model May 13, 2005 Asian Energy Security Workshop, Nautilus

  2. Update on the ROK Energy Sector • The ROK LEAP Model

  3. Major Energy & Economic Indicatior Note: GDP is constant value of 1995.

  4. Consumption Shares by Source(2004)

  5. Trend of Primary Energy Consumption by Source • Trend in Consumption Shares (198119902004, %) • •Oil : 58.1 53.8  45.6 • Coal : 33.3 26.2 24.1 • • LNG : 0 3.2 12.9 • Nuclear : 1.6 14.2 14.8

  6. Final Energy Consumption by Sector • Trend in Consumption Shares (198119902004, %) • •Industrial : 44.948.155.8 • Rsd. & Cmrcl : 40.729.321.4 • • Transport : 9.618.920.7 • Public & Other : 4.83.72.1

  7. Overseas Energy Dependency 500 • Major Feature(2004) • •Import Dependency: 96.6% • ME Dependency: Oil 78.1%, Gas 48.5% • • Energy Imports: $ 49.6 billion • Energy Import/Total Import: 22.1%

  8. District Heating Energy Production in DT(2003)

  9. District Heating Heat Production by Facilities(2003)

  10. Fuels for Production of District Heating Shares of Fuel by Sources(2003)

  11. 288.4 mtoe 269.3 mtoe (Unit: %) 198.4mtoe 44.8 45.7 46.5 Oil 50.6 20.1 Coal 20.5 22.4 LNG 23.0 15.4 14.5 12.3 Nuclear 10.5 16.7 16.6 16.2 14.1 RE & Others 3.1 1.8 2.6 2.7 2001 2011 2015 2020 Projection of Energy Demand(BAU) 311.8 mtoe • Consumption Shares by Sector (%) : 2001 2020 • • Industrial : 55.0 50.8 • Residential : 15.7 15.0 • • Transport : 21.0 24.6 • Commercial : 6.3 7.5 ☞ Forecasted by KEEI

  12. Target for Energy Intensity • Ambitious target for energy intensity set by Korean government in Dec. 2004 - 88 action plans established to attain the target Energy / GDP( toe/million Won)

  13. International Jointing Stockpiling • Basic concept • - leasing the excess oil storage capacity to foreign oil companies • or oil-producing countries. • benefits for Korea • - raising economic efficiency in storage through collection of leasing fee • - strengthening emergency preparedness. ( Korea has the priority right to • purchase the oil stocks stored in the leased facility in case of an emergency. • For lessee • - securing sales-push point in the center of big consuming region • (Korea, Japan, and China), • - enhancing marketing to customers where VLCC(very large crude oil • carrier) is unacceptable. •   - Currently, KNOC is conducting the joint oil stockpiling with Norway's Statoil • (11.3 million barrels) and China's Sinochem.

  14. Strategic(Emergency) Oil Stocks Oil Stocks (As of Dec., 2004) (Unit:mbbl) - Duration days are on the basis of previous imports • Currently, Koreangovernment has 99.1 million barrels of oil storage capacity • in 8 storage bases and plans to increase the storage capacity up to • 146 million barrels by 2007.

  15. Government Goal for Renewable energy

  16. The ROK LEAP Model

  17. BAU Path • Assumptions of BAU Path - Base Year: 2001 - Timeline: 2001 – 2030

  18. Demand in BAU Path • Residential - Cooking

  19. Demand in BAU Path • Residential - Space Heating

  20. Demand in BAU Path • Residential - Appliances

  21. Demand in BAU Path • Industrial

  22. Demand in BAU Path • Transportation

  23. Demand in BAU Path • Transportation - Household Vehicles

  24. Demand in BAU Path • Transportation - Mass Transit & Freight

  25. Final Energy Demand in BAU Path

  26. Imports of Primary Energy in BAU Path

  27. National Alternative Path • Assumptions of National Alternative Path - Most assumptions of National Alternative Path are the same to those for BAU Path, except electricity generation projections. - Emphasizing renewable energy: Share of electricity generation by renewable is assumed to be 7.0% over total electricity generation in 2011, comparing with 2.6% that is in the national plan. - Decreasing new deployment of nuclear power plants after 2015: Strong resistance against new deployment of nuclear power plants by local communities has been and is anticipated.

  28. National Alternative Path • Electricity capacity and generation for BAU Path

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