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Redesigning our seas and coasts? A tale of adaptive management

Redesigning our seas and coasts? A tale of adaptive management. Prof Laurence Mee Scottish Association for Marine Science. Dedicated to Slartibartfast, designer of coasts (especially fjords).

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Redesigning our seas and coasts? A tale of adaptive management

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  1. Redesigning our seas and coasts?A tale of adaptive management Prof Laurence Mee Scottish Association for Marine Science

  2. Dedicated to Slartibartfast, designer of coasts (especially fjords) Slartibartfast: "Perhaps I'm old and tired, but I think that the chances of finding out what's actually going on are so absurdly remote that the only thing to do is to say, 'Hang the sense of it,' and keep yourself busy. I'd much rather be happy than right any day." Arthur: "And are you?" Slartibartfast: "Ah, no. (laughs) Well, that's where it all falls down, of course." From Douglas Adams, A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy

  3. 1. Changing perceptions of seas and coasts Beautiful Beautiful

  4. Shifting baselines

  5. Shifting baselines A good year!

  6. Shifting baselines A bad year!

  7. Shifting baselines A good year?

  8. 2. Complexity

  9. Competing demands for marine space Fishing vessel tracks, 2002 Non-fishing use

  10. The crowded Irish Sea? From the Irish Sea Pilot study, 2005.

  11. The UK’s Growing Marine Footprint In 1858, so much sewage poured into the River Thames in London that MPs could not work in the Houses of Parliament because of the smell.

  12. 3. The Ecosystem Approach A resource planning and management approach that recognizes the connections between land, air, water and all living things, including people, their activities and institutions. Definition from the Ministry of Natural Resources, Canada www.mnr.gov.on.ca/

  13. Systems operate a varying scales and are often unpredictable

  14. Social system Ecological system DPSWR (DPSIR revisited) Socio-economic DRIVERS Policy RESPONSE options Environ-mental PRESSURES Environ-mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change

  15. Social system Ecological system DPSWR - Where are the impacts? Socio-economic DRIVERS Policy RESPONSE options Environ-mental PRESSURES Environ-mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change IMPACTS

  16. Natural system variability External factors Human climate change DPSWR - External factors Socio-economic DRIVERS Policy RESPONSE options Environ-mental PRESSURES Environ-mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change

  17. “Wicked” and “Tame” Problems “Tame” problem can be solved by careful rules-based or consensus management First order “fixes” Clear solutions no clear solution; there will be winners and losers “Wicked” problem involves moral judgements and value-based decisions: governance. Hard choices Jentoft and Chuenpagdee (2009) Fisheries and coastal governance as a wicked problem

  18. 4. Adaptive management Positive thinking for an uncertain future

  19. ASSESSMENT

  20. SETTING THE VISION

  21. SETTING THE VISION

  22. DEFINING THE FIRST STEP

  23. NECESSARY INDICATORS

  24. NECESSARY INDICATORS MODELS to test

  25. European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems North Sea conceptual model

  26. European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems North Sea Winners and Losers • Winners include phytoplankton and trophic dead-end species such as jellyfish • Winners also include transitional waters (estuaries) • Losers comprise seabirds that depend on sand eels and small pelagic fish. • Bottom water (demersal) fish species such as plaice, cod and haddock are losers as are the other animals and plants that form sea-bed habitats

  27. MONITORING IS ESSENTIAL

  28. COMPLIANCE AND FEEDBACK

  29. PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VISION

  30. Three reasons why adaptive management can fail • Lack of trust of stakeholders • Poor monitoring and data transparency • Slipping baselines

  31. Designing, deploying and assessing artificial habitats – SAMS Artificial Reef Rehabilitation – creating a new future to repair some of our mistakes

  32. 5. Conclusions • No going back; we can only be stewards of the future • Our perceptions of the marine environment and values are critically important for its management • Complexity is difficult to grasp, whether a scientist or a decision maker • Let’s stop talking about the “low hanging fruits”, the easy “win-win solutions” and focus on the wicked problems • Adaptive management is one towards an ecosystem approach but there are pitfalls and risks. Beautiful

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