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Sustaining Asia’s Economic Recovery: Challenges and Future Trends

This session at the 7th Asia Economic Forum, led by Dr. Gordian Gaeta, examines the key achievements, challenges, and future trends in sustaining Asia's economic recovery. It highlights the importance of market-friendly policies, capital allocation, and domestic value growth. Discussion revolves around the impact of private investment, infrastructure development, and sound public policy in fostering robust economic activity. Strategies to counteract adverse economic phenomena like Dutch disease and the need for long-term development over short-term profits are emphasized.

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Sustaining Asia’s Economic Recovery: Challenges and Future Trends

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  1. 7th Asia Economic Forum: The Asian Century in the Making: Achievements, Challenges and Future Trends Session V: Sustaining Asia’s Economic Recovery Dr Gordian Gaeta

  2. AGENDA • (East Asian) Miracle: Superior accumulation and allocation of physical and human capital – market friendly economic policies with economic contests • Economic Advancement (Recovery): Asia’s declining opportunities/resilience in pursuing this path • The Way Forward/Future trends: Private investment and capital markets reshape economies and the next growth curve – policy and government support is ambivalent at times 2 Dr Gordian Gaeta

  3. CHALLENGES • Strategy: Prevailing capital import – goods export (FDI/resources - low cost labor/infrastructure) success well documented but with growing issues • Opposing Forces: Dutch disease (FX), fickle capital flows, global economic health (consumption), local asset sell out, bandit economy and trade conflicts • Policies: (free) market regulations, company and credit environment, liberal people and trade policies 3 Dr Gordian Gaeta

  4. THE WAY FORWARD • Domestic Value Growth: growth based on skills, competence and productivity, rule of law and an institutional framework • Policies: open market and trade regulations, people, people, people, company and credit development, building institutions • Need to oppose short term profit/transfer maximization in favor of long term root development 4 Dr Gordian Gaeta

  5. PUBLIC POLICY • Sound Macro-Economic, Fiscal, and Monetary Policies: • Fiscal Policy: reduce fiscal deficit while enhancing private capital role in economic growth • Exchange Rate Policy: avoid currency devaluation war. • Monetary Policy: contain money supply/credit: fight high inflation rates • Provision of fair investment environment for investing in agriculture: reduce income inequality • Institutionalize good Government and administration 5 Dr Gordian Gaeta

  6. PUBLIC INVESTMENT • Significant Public Investment for future robust economic growth: • Enabling Conditions - Hard Infrastructure: to boost economic activity and increase economic linkage within the country and across the region. • Activity Value - Soft Infrastructure: invest in education, development and holistic care system to grow human resources 6 Dr Gordian Gaeta

  7. FINANCIAL ECONOMY Frontier – Emerging – Developed Economy – the Imperative Paradigm Shift towards a formal Economy Informal Economy Economic Wealth Formal, Institutionalized Economy FRONTIER ECONOMY EMERGING ECONOMY DEVELOPED ECONOMY 7 Dr Gordian Gaeta

  8. ONE INVESTOR • One small investor: • Job and Skill Creation: several thousand jobs created or supported, people developed and advanced – equity cost per job created is US$30,000 • Export Growth: up to 95% export from pure domestic starting point – equity cost per USD1M exported is about US$100,000 8 Dr Gordian Gaeta

  9. 7th Asia Economic Forum: Thank you Session V: Sustaining Asia’s Economic Recovery Dr Gordian Gaeta

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