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Director’s Update of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director’s Update of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. COPC Meeting Naval Oceanography Center Bay St. Louis, Mississippi November 20-21, 2002 Dr. Louis Uccellini NCEP Director “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”. Overview.

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Director’s Update of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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  1. Director’s Updateof theNational Centers for Environmental Prediction COPC Meeting Naval Oceanography Center Bay St. Louis, Mississippi November 20-21, 2002 Dr. Louis Uccellini NCEP Director “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

  2. Overview • NCEP Contribution to Homeland Security • Infrastructure Activities • NCEP 2002 Implementations • NCEP 2002 Real Time Test and Evaluation • NCEP Planned 2003 Implementations • Volcanic Ash Model Backup • JCSDA News • WRF News • Appendices

  3. NCEP’s Contribution to Homeland Security • Currently, NCEP is providing the following: - HYSPLIT model running off 12 km Eta model November 2001 - On demand ARL HYSPLIT model run using 4 km NCEP Nonhydrostatic Meso Model (NMM) 25 June 2002 • 4 km NMM model can be run over any one of 26 predefined regions covering CONUS, AK, HI, and PR.

  4. 4 km NMM Domains

  5. Infrastructure Activities • New NCEP supercomputer contract has been awarded to IBM and has been installed at IBM’s facility in Gaithersburg, MD and is scheduled to be operational no later then 1 July 2003 • Backup NCEP supercomputer site recommendation to senior NOAA management planned for mid December 2002 – backup computer funding awaits congressional action on FY03 budget • Backup NCF in Fairmont, W. VA - October 2002tests have started • Backup NWSTG in Mt. Weather, VA – September 2004

  6. NCEP 2002 Implementations Global Forecast System • AVN and MRF models runs have been renamed the “Global Forecast System” (GFS) • Length of 4 per day GFS runs increased to 384 Hours - 5 March 2002 • MRF run discontinued and replaced with the extended 00 UTC GFS - 23 April 2002

  7. NCEP 2002 Implementations(cont.) Global Forecast System • Resolution increase from T170L42 (75km) to T254L64 (55 km) – 29 October 2002 • Resolution steps down in later forecast hours

  8. NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.) Mesoscale Models • RUC model resolution increase from 40 km / 40 levels to 20 km / 50 levels - 16 April 2002 • RSAS resolution upgrade from 60 km to 15 km 11 June 2002

  9. NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.) Ocean Models • Eastern North Pacific regional wave model - 30 April 2002 GFDL Hurricane Model • Upgrade from a three grid system (1 deg x 1/3 deg x 1/6 deg) to a larger two grid system (½ deg x 1/6 deg) – 21 May 2002

  10. Wave Watch III Eastern North Pacific Domain • .25 x .25 deg domain implemented April 30, 2002. • Able to resolve all coastal stations and buoys • Hurricane version to be implemented for ’03 season

  11. NCEP 2002Real Time Test and Evaluation Mesoscale Models • SREF – 5 Eta members with Kain-Fritsch physics – June 2002 (Note 5 Eta and 5 RSM members operational since 1 September 2001) • 8 km Nonhydrostatic mesoscale model 17 July 2002

  12. NCEP 2003 Planned Implementations • Eta physics package and 3DVAR upgrade – Spring 2003 • Eastern Pacific hurricane wave model – Spring 2003 • 8 km nonhydrostatic mesoscale model within WRF infrastructure and coding standards by Summer 2003

  13. NCEP 2003 Planned Implementations (cont.) • Wave Model – Extend to 7 days with 4 runs per day Fall 2003 • Global Ensembles – 4 per day 10 members T126 for 7.5 days T62 from 7.5 days to end Fall 2003 • Global Forecast System (GFS) – Coupled model for sea surface temps – Summer 2003 – Hourly meteograms out to 36 hours– Spring 2003 – Hourly Long wave radiation package – Fall 2003

  14. Volcanic Ash Model Backup • For backup to the VAFTAD model, the NWSTG can now post the AFWA PUFF model graphics - NCEP supplied commercial graphic package to AFWA. This package converts graphics to NWSTG usable form - All requested changes to graphic output have been made • NCEP, NESDIS and AFWA MOA is being finalized

  15. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001 Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models • Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models • Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from the advanced satellite sensors • Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure • Develop common fast radiative transfer system • Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather and climate predictions • Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new satellite technology from two years to one Goals:

  16. NOAA/NCEP NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/OAR NASA/Goddard Office of Weather and Air Quality Seasonal Interannual Prediction Project US Navy NOAA/NESDIS US Air Force Office of Naval Research Office of Research & Applications Air Weather Agency (XOW) JCSDA Partners

  17. Organizational Structure NASA & NOAA Joint Oversight Board Directors of: NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini(Chair) Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi NOAA ORA: M. Colton NOAA OWAQR: D. Rogers Navy: R. McCoy, R. Hillyer USAF: M. Farrar Rotating Chair Between NASA, NOAA Advisory Panel Joint Center Staff Center Director: Stephen Lord (Acting) Executive Directors: Fuzhong Weng – NESDIS, L.-P. Riishojgaard - NASA Technical Liaisons: DAO – R. Dee EMC – J. Derber NSIPP – M. Rienecker OWAQR – A. Gasiewski ORA – D. Tarpley Navy – Nancy Baker Contractor Support: George Ohring (NESDIS) Secretary Science Steering Committee

  18. JCSDA Recent Accomplishments • Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models • Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) • Operational implementation (October, 2002) • New Data used in NCEP operational models • SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates • SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water • GOES-10 IR radiances • QuikSCAT data • Preparation for AIRS • Computer installed at NASA to deliver data within 180 minutes of ingest • Fast radiative model developed, documented, delivered, undergoing testing • One day GDAS test of AIRS data done in September 2002 • Start automated processing AIRS data in November 2002 • “Foundation” Science Issues and Priorities agreed to: Basis for AO

  19. Framework of Where NCEP is Headed: FY2005 and Beyond … JCSDA (distributed) Global “Test Bed” will be needed Probable Boulder “Test Bed” Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)

  20. WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002 • WRF MOA established and is being signed by all parties. • Made available 30-day retrospective data sets (BUFR & GRIB) suitable for WRF testing. • Adapted (with NSSL) NCEP operational NMM postprocessor to WRF standards, issued code and users’ guide.

  21. WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002 • Converted Eta & NMM dynamics and all physics modules to WRF coding standards. • Ensured all converted code reproduced NCEP control version results (VERY IMPORTANT). • Final step to wrap NMM under WRF modeling infrastructure underway - implementation scheduled for 4Q FY2003. • Made EMC’s grid-to-obs verification codes available with users’ guide. • Unification (with AFWA) of Land-Surface Model in WRF framework nearing completion.

  22. WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002 • NCEP led WG#4 developed beta version of WRF 3DVAR for testing (nearly ready for release) • NCEP led WG#9 is proactive in setting needs for testing and infrastructure efficiencies. • NCEP led WG#12 establishes NCEP’s prepared BUFR observation set for use in WRF 3DVAR and in WRF verification using NCEP’s code. • Duane Stevens (University of Hawaii) at NCEP working with WRF teams (application of Semi-Lagrangian to hurricanes and evaluation of NCAR Eulerian vs NMM over Hawaii)

  23. WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002 • Established Parallel system to run NCAR Eulerian mass model with NCEP physics in identical 8 km HiResWindow configuration • 4 large domain nests (Western,Central&Eastern CONUS + Alaska) • 2 small domain nests (Hawaii and Puerto Rico) • Semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit dynamic core: • Generalized vertical coordinate embodies pure sigma and pure isentropic and ALL hybrids in between • Cascade interpolation allowing forward trajectories • High-order accuracy compact difference schemes • Non-reflective top boundary condition • All development within WRF infrastructure

  24. WRF Development at NCEP/EMC • FY03 Funding • $1.5 M • $700 K NWS base • $800 K External • Effort for FY03 • Nelson Seaman hired under IPA to lead NOAA WRF management • Total 14.3 PY (Model and Data Assim) • 7.3 PY for development (Semi-Lagrangian, DA) • 7.0 PY for Mesoscale Branch Infrastructure • Setting up and making test runs • NMM benchmark codes and runs • WRF system test plan

  25. Appendices • JCSDA Scientific Projects • Current NCEP Backup

  26. Scientific Projects under JCSDA • Quikscat Winds • Tested with slightly positive impact • As of Jan. 22, will be part of operational data stream for use in NCEP models • TRMM Precipitation Estimates • Tested and found to be useful supplement to SSM/I data • Ingested by operational models starting October 16, 2001

  27. Scientific Projects under JCSDA • AMSU radiances • Used operationally since February 2001 • Statistical correction for cloud liquid water sensitivity being evaluated • GOES radiances • Used operationally in both regional (since Sept., 2000) and global systems (since 1998) • Attempts underway to obtain and use full resolution sounder data

  28. Current NCEP Backup • NCEP Model ProductsBackup Model Products • 12 km Eta => AFWA MM5 @ 45km • T254L64 GFS => Navy NOGAPS T239L30 • Wave Model => Navy WW3 same model • GFDL Hurricane => Navy GFDN Hurricane • RUC 20 km => FSL RUC same model 20 km • Ensembles => No backup available • WAFS Grids, Fax and Graphics => UKMET • VAFTAD => AFWA PUFF

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