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NCEP for NCEPers

NCEP for NCEPers

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NCEP for NCEPers

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  1. NCEP for NCEPers Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” December 5, 2005

  2. Outline • Define NOAA/NWS/Forecast Process • Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services • Strategic Plan • Annual Operating Plan • Budget/GPRA Measures • Computing summary • 2005/2006 Milestones • Future Considerations

  3. The NOAA Prediction Process

  4. NWS Organization

  5. Central Guidance Local Offices The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Air Quality and Environmental Agencies, … Process Products & Forecast Services Respond & Feedback Distribute IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback

  6. Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services

  7. 1954 - Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed 1961 - Full funding from US Weather Bureau AD, DD,FD,ExFD 1974 – Move to WWB 1979 – CAC created 1984 – additions Computer Operations from NOAA NHC NSSFC 1995 – NCEP created NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC, AWC, SPC (move to Norman in ’97), TPC SEC becomes NCEP’s 9th center (remains an OAR lab) 2004 – SEC enters NWS History of NCEP

  8. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission:NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Space Environment Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

  9. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

  10. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Prediction Products 2 Week 1 Week Weather Prediction Products Days Hours Minutes Benefits Space Operation Reservoir Control Health Energy State/Local Planning Commerce Recreation Ecosystem Protection of Life & Property Agriculture Hydropower Environment Air Quality Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation

  11. NOAA Mission Goal Teams and Line Offices NWS Forecast Offices Academia International Organizations Military Other Federal Agencies Private Meteorologists Research Laboratories State and Local Emergency Managers Wild Fire Agencies (Federal/State) Technology Vendors Media NCEP Partners

  12. Planning ProcessCentered Around NOAA’s PPBES NOAA Strategic Plan NWS Strategic Plan NCEP Strategic Plan NCEP Annual Operating Plan Executive Summaries NCEP Technical Operating Plan Performance Plans

  13. NCEP’s Strategies and Objectives to Meet NOAA’s Service, Delivery and Improvement Goals • Produce and Deliver the Best Products and Services • Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances • Exercise Global Leadership • Focus the NCEP Organizational Culture • Effectively Manage NCEP Resources 83% EMC, NCO, HPC, SPC, TPC, SEC

  14. NOAA Strategic Plan GoalsNCEP Contribution 7% CPC 10% AWC OPC 83% EMC, NCO, HPC, SPC, TPC, SEC NCEP Contributes to 3 of NOAA’s Strategic Plan Goals and 8 Separate Programs

  15. NCEP Technical Operating PlansMapping Resources to Goals ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN GPRA NOAA GOALS EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NWS GOALS NCEP GOALS KEY DELIVERABLES NTOP ELEMENTS MILESTONES BUDGET ALLOCATION

  16. GPRA Scores NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

  17. NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Internal Planning Timeline Final NTOP and Annual Operating Plan When Budget is Allocated Performance Measures Goals/Objectives Milestones Resources ($$/People) Draft Annual Operating Plan NTOPS 1st draft Executive Summary Identify Agency Milestones Nov. Dec. Late Sept. Mid Sept Early Sept. Aug. Jan. NCO Review Dec. EMC Review Corporate Board Planning Meeting Internal Coordination

  18. NCEP Budget FactsHistorical Base Funding $88.2 $80.1 Weather and Climate Supercomputer Supercomputer Backup SEC Integration Rent Dropsondes/EMC Adjustments $68.2 $62.0 $54.8 $50.1 Labor ATBs

  19. NCEP Budget FactsFY2005 OR&F vs. PAC $26.4M 30% Weather and Climate Supercomputer Supercomputer Backup $61.8M 70%

  20. NCEP Budget Facts FY 2005 Allocations by Center ($K) NWS Base Other Funding Sources: $14,861K

  21. Computing Summary

  22. Computing Capability $26.4M/Year Investment Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • 3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005 • Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

  23. RUC NAM Anl GFS Anl Waves Hur Climate Forecast System SREF NAM Fcst GFS Fcst GENS

  24. Product Generation Performance

  25. AOP Milestones

  26. AOP 2005 Milestones • Weather • Hurricane Model resolution increase 18  9 km • Global Model resolution increase 55  35 km • Rapid Update Cycle resolution increase 20  13 km • Global Ensemble upgrade • North American Meso-Scale upgrade

  27. AOP 2005 Milestones • Climate • Additional daily run of Climate Forecast System (from 1  2/day) • Air Quality • Expand Air Quality Forecast from Northeast U.S. to Eastern U.S.

  28. AOP 2005 Milestones • Products • Produce Day 3 – 8 experimental Graphical Forecast Chart Depicting Likelihood of Critical Fire Weather Conditions • Develop Operational Product of Ensemble Tracks Product for Tropical Cyclones • Extend UV Outlooks to 72 Hours • Issue Operational Significant Weather Medium and High Level Chart in BUFR Format

  29. AOP 2005 Milestones • Outreach • Conduct National Severe Weather Workshop • Conduct Three Introduction to Hurricane Preparedness Workshops for Local Emergency Managers • Conduct Collaborative Spring Forecast Experiment to Evaluate WRF • Conduct Hurricane Awareness Tour to Caribbean Countries and Mexico, and a Tour Along the Atlantic Coast, Co-Sponsor Space Weather Week • Participate in Forecaster Exchange Program with Meteorology-Canada • Provide Training for 10 Meteorologists at International Desks

  30. AOP FY2006 Milestones • Ocean • Wave Model • 10 member Ensemble Wave model – Spring (06) • Great Lakes Wave Forecast – Summer (06) • Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) • HYCOM-based, 1/12 degree North Atlantic Basin – Fall (05) Chesapeake Bay

  31. AOP FY2006 Milestones • Weather • Global Forecast System (GFS) – Spring (06) • GSI data assimilation • Apply hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate model • WRF – Spring (06) • WRF based North America Mesoscale Run (Replaces Eta Model) • GFDL Hurricane Model – Spring (06) • Begin parallel runs of Hurricane WRF system • Complete Implementation of 6 WRF Members into the SREF System - Winter (05)

  32. AOP FY2006 Milestones • Products • Execute Full Implementation of Watch-by-County • Implement Operational Winter Weather Desk Enhancements • Implement Gridded Wave Forecasts for Coastal and Offshore Zones in Support of NDFD • Issue Experimental Graphical AIRMET • Develop Experimental Probababilisitc Guidance for Occurrence of Lightning for Fire Weather Forecasts • Implement Experimental Week-2 Outlooks for North America including Canada, Alaska and Mexico and U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Islands • Develop Outlooks for Monthly and Seasonal Degree-Day Totals Based on CPC Seasonal Temperature Outlook

  33. AOP FY2006 Milestones • Outreach • Organize and Co-Sponsor Space Weather Week • Provide Training for 10 Visiting Scientists at International Training Desks • Conduct Spring Forecast Experiment through SPC's Hazardous Weather Testbed • Conduct Hurricane Awareness Tour to Caribbean Countries and Mexico, and a Tour Along the Gulf Coast • Participate in Forecaster Exchange Program with Meteorology-Canada in Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting • Conduct Two Hurricane Preparedness Workshops for Coastal States • Conduct National Severe Weather Workshop • Lead the 30th Annual Climate Diagnostic & Prediction Workshop • Participate in Three Trade Shows and Two Safety Seminars in Support of Marine Outreach Program

  34. Future Considerations

  35. Expanding “Environmental” Services • Air Quality Prediction (with the EPA) • Expanded coverage in 2005 • Ocean Modeling  Provide “Backbone” for Regional Coastal Model • U.S. Ocean Commission Report • Plan submitted to NOAA Science Advisory Board • Full incorporation of Space Weather Services

  36. Expanding “Environmental” Services (cont.) • Advancing Prediction of Extreme Events • Hurricane intensity • Snowstorms • Severe Weather • Fire Weather • Floods • Advancing Two week to One Year Climate Forecasts for El Nino/La Nina Seasonal Predictions with the new Climate Forecast System: need to improve GPRA score! • Climate Test Bed to accelerate improvements in seasonal climate prediction • Climate Forecast System, a fully coupled climate prediction model, was implemented in August, 2004. In FY05, the number of ensemble members doubled from 30 per month to 60 per month. Doubling of horizontal resolution to ~105 km is expected by ‘08

  37. Linkages to Outside Community • International programs – GEOSS, THORPEX WMO-sponsored climate programs • “Community Modeling” between research and operational communities to accelerate transition of forecast improvements from research to operations • Test Beds – e.g., Climate Test Bed – to accelerate transition from research to operations and improve forecast products • Interagency efforts to use global research and operational global satellite data more effectively (NASA, NOAA, DoD “Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation”) • Consolidation of NOAA severe weather research and prediction at the OU National Weather Center in FY06 • World-Class Facility for the research to operations enterprise (NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, move in FY08!)

  38. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF • Includes housing 800 Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers • NESDIS research and satellite services • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Begin move to new facility September ’07 and complete by Feb ‘08

  39. Background Slides

  40. Model Dependencies: Basis for How Predictions are Made Forecast Medium Range Ensemble (NAEFS) GFDL Hurricane G L O B A L Dispersion Global Forecast System D A T A North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) Severe Weather Ocean Ocean Climate Forecast System Air Quality Ocean Short-Range Ensemble Aviation Hourly Forecast NOAH Land Surface Model

  41. Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models • Atmosphere • Ocean • Cryosphere • Land • Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems • Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

  42. Long-Term Performance Gains

  43. NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP

  44. (DOC GPRA goal) HPC Forecasters Add Value Models provide basis for improvement Correlations Of HPC with: Eta: 0.99 GFS: 0.74 NGM: 0.85

  45. Hurricane Track Forecast Errors in Atlantic basin: 24-72 Hrs

  46. (preliminary)

  47. Day 7 Day 5 Day 3 In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill

  48. Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2002 2003 2001 2004 2005

  49. September 2005 Performance Updates ↑ Good Status: