1 / 18

NCEP Review

NCEP Review. James Nelson Anchorage WFO 12/7/2011. What we like. New NAM is performing well over the forecast area in the recent storms - subjective HPC long range support has been very good. The stats have bore this result. Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Data Gridded MOS Ice Drift Forecasts

gaurav
Télécharger la présentation

NCEP Review

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. NCEP Review James Nelson Anchorage WFO 12/7/2011

  2. What we like • New NAM is performing well over the forecast area in the recent storms - subjective • HPC long range support has been very good. The stats have bore this result. • Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Data • Gridded MOS • Ice Drift Forecasts • WRF-RR – Aviation and short-term • Possible use in RTMA when it gets spun up operationally

  3. Needs/Wants • NCO • GFS 3hr output • WRF-RR output for AK • NAM Nests • NAEFS products • MMB • Near-Shore Wave Modeling over the Fjords of Southeast and through Prince William Sound. Currently working with Andre. • Ice Model with evaluation from Alaska Ice Desk possibly working with NIC.

  4. Collaborative Possibilities • SPC • Collaboration with Aviation Unit on their Convective Outlook Product for Alaska • Fire Wx threats • CPC • Threats page participation • OPC • Collaboration on grids/forecast • Volcanic Ash

  5. Notes • Under-dispersive GEFS in high impact events - subjective • 18z run of GFS in our domain is a poor performer – subjective • Therefore, reducing the effectiveness of the 12Z NAM due to boundary condition contamination • SREF data ok with Aviation parameters.

  6. Significant Rain Event • Large Precipitation Event – October 25-26 • Models significantly underforecasted the event • Brings to the forefront of the predictability of significant rainfall events. • Models generally were half the amount that was observed.

  7. Odd Find – Marine Verification • Looking over our Marine Verification we decided to try some other stats and break them down • Found some odd features over Alaska • GFS model performance improvements varied from North to South

  8. “EPIC” Bering Storm • Guidance was good. • Mentions of the large storm were highlighted up to 5 days in advance with Emergency Manager briefing (Happens every Friday) • Continued performance was there as well with intensity forecast. • ETSS was a big help and graphics were very useful to push to the public.

  9. Damage • Locations with Maximum Wind Gusts of at least Hurricane-force (official values unless noted): • Cape Lisburne 81 mph at 700 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Gambell 74 mph at 600 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Kotzebue 74 mph at 600 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Little Diomede (Unofficial) 93 mph late Tue night Nov 9 • Point Hope 78 mph at 500 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • (incomplete due to power outage; an unofficial maximum is 85 mph) • Savoonga76 mph at 700 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Tin City 85 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Wales 89 mph at 142 AM AKST Wed Nov 9

  10. Locations with Maximum Wind Gusts of 55 to 73 mph (official values): • Cape Romanzof 60 mph at 300 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Buckland 56 mph at 316 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Deering 61 mph at 319 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Emmonak 62 mph at 1100 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Golovin 64 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Kivalina 71 mph at 323 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Marshall 64 mph at 1100 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Noatak 62 mph at 1036 am AKST Wed Nov 9 • Nome 61 mph at 900 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Noorvik 67 mph at 423 am AKST Wed Nov 9 • Saint Marys 61 mph at 900 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Shaktoolik 64 mph at 115 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Shishmaref 67 mph at 1216 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Shungnak 69 mph at 900 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • St. Michael 68 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Teller 71 mph at 600 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Unalakleet 66 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9

More Related