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NCEP Update

NCEP Update. 21 st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 17 th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction August 1, 2005 Washington, DC. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. Dr. Stephen Lord Director, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP. Overview.

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NCEP Update

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  1. NCEP Update 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction August 1, 2005 Washington, DC “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Dr. Stephen Lord Director, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP

  2. Overview • Define NCEP • Programmatic Advancements • Service Centers • Modeling • Summary

  3. Define NCEP • Expanding Mission • “From the Sun to the Sea”

  4. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA’s National Weather Service Mission:NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Space Environment Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

  5. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

  6. Programmatic Advancements • Future Location • Computing Capability • Product generation summary • Entering the age of air quality prediction

  7. NCEP’s Future Location New Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park (FY08) Current Location NOAA Science Center World Weather Building Camp Springs

  8. NCEP’s Future Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park (FY08)

  9. National Weather Center (NWC)Norman, Oklahoma NWS -Storm Prediction Center (SPC) OAR-National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) DOC/DOD/DOT-WSR-88D Radar Operations Center (ROC) NWS – Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) NWS -Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Occupancy Summer 2006

  10. Computing Capability $26.4M/Year Investment Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • 3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005 • Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

  11. Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2002 2003 2001 2004 2005

  12. Space Environment Center • SEC formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9 • Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the “Sun to the Sea” • R&D to operations structure makes them a natural fit • Linkage of SEC products to other more traditional NWS and NCEP products (e.g., aviation, climate) • Service/Science linkage offers many exciting challenges for future growth to insure the delivery of weather/ocean/climate products to a diverse and increasingly sophisticated user community.

  13. Air Quality Prediction at NCEP • Initial (FY2003 – FY2008): • 1-day forecasts of surface ozone (O3) concentration (twice per day) using NOAA/EPA community model for AQ (CMAQ)linked to 12 km Eta • Validated in testing over Northeastern USdomain during 03 and 04 • Declared operational September 13, 2004 • Increased domain to cover Eastern US in ‘05 • Deploy Nationwide within 5 years • Intermediate (FY2008 – FY2010): • Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) concentration • Longer range (by FY2013): • Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours • Include broader range of significant pollutants Northeast Domain FY03-04 FY05 East Domain

  14. Service Centers • Performance measures • Test beds • NDFD

  15. NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP

  16. Preliminary track error Dennis Emily

  17. (DOC GPRA goal) HPC Forecasters Add Value Models provide basis for improvement Correlations Of HPC with: Eta: 0.99 GFS: 0.74 NGM: 0.85

  18. Test Beds

  19. NCEP’s Role in NDFD • HPC • Provide digital guidance for use by forecasters in the digital forecast process • Day 4-7 max/min temps, 12 hour PoPs,Td, sky cover, wind direction and speed and precip type • QPF: Day 1-3, 6-hourly; Day 4-5 48 hour total

  20. Day 6 Max Temperature Forecasts Valid July 27, 2005 Day 7 Day 4 Day 5

  21. Modeling • Current models – Interdependence • Introduction of the new Climate Forecast System • Model Plans in near future ~ 07 • WRF, ESMF

  22. Forecast Current Model Dependencies Medium Range Ensemble GFDL Hurricane G L O B A L D A T A Global Forecast System Dispersion North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) Ocean *Climate Forecast System Ocean Air Quality Ocean Short-Range Ensemble Rapid Update Cycle NOAH Land Surface Model

  23. The NCEP Coupled Climate Forecast System • First global operational atmosphere-ocean coupled dynamic model (implemented August, 2004) • Climate Forecast System (CFS) • First climate forecast system to beat statistical approaches

  24. Forecast Near Future Model Dependencies ~ FY07 Medium Range Ensemble (NAEFS Hurricane WRF G L O B A L D A T A Dispersion Global Forecast System Regional Weather Forecast Model WRF-based Ocean *Climate Forecast System Ocean Air Quality Ocean Short-Range Ensemble (WRF) WRF Rapid Refresh NOAH Land Surface Model

  25. WRFNOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRL Explicit Cores (e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation) • The next-generation mesoscale NWP modeling system for research and operations • Sustained by AF, Navy, NCEP, NCAR • Recent implementation of “Hi-res Window” for hazardous weather (ARW and NMM) on 6/28/05 at ~5km • 6 new members to be added to the SREF system consisting of an unperturbed (control) and a single breeding pair of ensemble members each for the WRF-ARW and the WRF-NMM twice per day by 4th Q ‘05 C M I NCAR ARW NCEP NMM

  26. Weather and Research Forecast Model Prototype for Hurricane WRF (HWRF) 108 h: landfall forecast (error<10 mi, observed weakening) Initialized as tropical storm 102 h: Category 4 storm Before landfall

  27. NCEP SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment 2005 2 km and 4 km WRF Experiments 4km WRF - ARW 4km WRF - NMM 1h Base REF 2km WRF - ARW

  28. Earth System Modeling Framework • ESMF definition • Global common model infrastructure • NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP • Basis for next generation global data assimilation and forecast system • Generalized model to include hybrid coordinate • Common model and data assimilation superstructure • Potential unified global and regional system • ESMF Status • Have successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-NASA fvCAM using ESMF • Will couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by end of 2005

  29. Increasing Role of Community Approach to Advancing Operational Models Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation NASA – NOAA – DOD “Front end” WRF (NOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRL) ESMF (NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP) “Middle” NOMADS UCAR/CONDUIT “Back end”

  30. Summary NCEP is • Working with community in model development and applications across entire spectrum from climate to weather • Expanding its mission – space weather, air quality model, future role in operational ocean model being considered • Addressing infrastructure issues – computer/buildings • Strategically positioned to advance climate and weather forecast and support and address earth model issues for environmental prediction (air, water, ecosystem quality)

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