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NCEP Ozone Assimilation Update

NCEP Ozone Assimilation Update . Craig S. Long – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC Larry Flynn – NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Donna McNamara – NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD Russ Treadon & Haixia Liu – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC. JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009. Outline:. What’s currently being assimilated What’s next

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NCEP Ozone Assimilation Update

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  1. NCEP Ozone Assimilation Update Craig S. Long – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC Larry Flynn – NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Donna McNamara – NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD Russ Treadon & Haixia Liu – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  2. Outline: • What’s currently being assimilated • What’s next • Availability of current & future ozone sensors • Ozone forecasts in GFS • Users of GFS ozone products • Future Issues? JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  3. What’s currently being assimilated: • SBUV/2: • Nadir only, total + profile, ~6km res, sunlit part of Earth • Assimilated since 1997 (N11, N14) • NOAA-16 • 9 Years old (launched in 2000) • obs unsuited for use due to late equator crossing time • NOAA-17 • 7 Years old (launched in 2002) • NOAA-18 (after moratorium) • 4 Years old (launched in 2005) JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  4. NOAA-19 orbit is currently very similar to NOAA-18 JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  5. What’s next: • Fall 2009: • OMI TO3 (NRT) • Working with NASA OMI ST to exclude obs of poor quality • NOAA-19 SBUV/2 (possible) • Just given green light to make data products • Testing needs to be completed by mid summer • Fall 2010: • GOME-2 (Total only) • MLS NRT ozone profile • Microwave instrument • Makes obs on dark side of earth • Slightly better vert res than SBUV/2 • Improve ozone hole formation monitoring • Data files need to be BUFR-ized • Non-BUFR tests complete • GSI code modified to assimilate higher res profiles from MLS and HIRDLS • OMI nadir profile • 2011+ • OMPS: (profile, total, limb) JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  6. SBUV/2 Obs for 06Z cycle on Feb 5, 2009 JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  7. OMTO3 Obs (thinned) for 06Z cycle on Feb 5, 2009 JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  8. GFS “Guess” - OMI Obs for 06Z cycle on Feb 5, 2009 JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  9. GFS “Guess” - OMI Obs with C-pair excluded for 06Z cycle on Feb 5, 2009 JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  10. Availability of future ozone sensors: • As NOAA satellites continue to drift the BUV instruments become suitable for use again: • SBUV/2 on descending node (N16, N18, N19) ascending mode (N17) • Takes 7 years…will NESDIS keep satellites working? Aura (OMI + MLS) C1 NPP

  11. Ozone fcst in GFS: • Ozone in the GFS forecasts looses ~3% after 120 hr and ~10% by D14. • 3 years ago JCSDA funded the NRL Chem2D ozone chemistry. • However, only two of four Chem2D terms were implemented into operational GFS. • Need to revisit this work and complete the implementation. JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  12. Users of GFS ozone products: two examples • Total: UV Index • 1-5 day global hourly forecasts of skin damaging UV radiation • Components: • GFS Total Ozone Forecasts • GFS cloud UV radiation attenuation • GFS surface albedo (including snow) • Elevation • Aerosols (seasonal climatology) • Profile: FAA • FAA has regulations as to how much ozone is allowed in aircraft cabins • Utilize ozone profile climatology that is over 30 years old • UAH (Dr Mike Newchurch) is working with FAA to provide NCEP GFS O3MR forecasts to provide more accurate information JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  13. UV Index Forecasts Vs NOAA NEUBrew OBS Brewer Obs from BEARS-site at Bondville, IL May 4 May 5 Brewer Obs UV Index 1-5 day Fcst May 6 May 7 http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/neubrew/

  14. Potential use of GFS ozone forecasts for FAA flight planners. • Aircraft flight planning and operations require ozone forecasts • Mid-troposphere to Low-stratosphere • Routing decisions to protect human health • FAA first investigated cabin ozone exposure in 1963 • Title 14: Aeronautics and Space (aka: the FAA regulation) establishes aircraft cabin ozone standards • above FL320 (~280 mb), max value: 250 ppbv • above FL270 (~350 mb), max value: 250 ppbv and time-weighted average: 100 ppbv • 1980 FAA Advisory Circular specifies Belmont, et al (1978) and Wilcox and Belmont (1977) ozone climatologies • Flight planning process begins up to 5 days in advance • Planners use maps with multi-state sized regions designated as constant monthly mean ozone concentration JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  15. GFS OZONE MIXING RATIO FORECASTFL350, Pressure: 235mb, Date: 20090101 Ozone Mixing Ratio (kg/kg) JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  16. 38.62 JFK POX NRT LAX 30.05 FL320 23.56 JFK POX NRT LAX FL230 18.28 JFK JFK 13.79 Ozone Mixing Ratio (kg/kg) JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

  17. Future Issues: • GFS vertical res and top of model changes in FY10 • Provide better ozone profile in UTLS to help out AQ fcsts • Ozone in NAM? • IR ozone profile (or channels) assimilation? JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009

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