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NCEP Update

NCEP Update. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. St. Louis Weather Forecast Office October 5, 2005. Outline. Define NCEP Computing summary Model Activity WRF Service Centers

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NCEP Update

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  1. NCEP Update Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” St. Louis Weather Forecast Office October 5, 2005

  2. Outline • Define NCEP • Computing summary • Model Activity • WRF • Service Centers • Focus on HPC • NDFD • Winter Weather Desk • SREF • Summary

  3. Define NCEP

  4. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission:NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Space Environment Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

  5. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” Seamless Suite of Products • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

  6. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Prediction Products 2 Week 1 Week Weather Prediction Products Days Hours Minutes Benefits Space Operation Reservoir Control Health Energy State/Local Planning Commerce Recreation Ecosystem Protection of Life & Property Agriculture Hydropower Environment Air Quality Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation

  7. Computing Summary

  8. Computing Capability $26.4M/Year Investment Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • 3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005 • Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

  9. RUC NAM Anl GFS Anl Waves Hur Climate Forecast System SREF NAM Fcst GFS Fcst GENS

  10. Product Generation Performance

  11. Model Activity

  12. 2005 Implementations • Weather • Hurricane Model resolution increase 18  9 km • Global Model resolution increase 55  35 km • Rapid Update Cycle resolution increase 20  13 km • Global Ensemble upgrade • North American Meso-Scale upgrade

  13. 2005 Implementations (Cont.) • Climate • Additional daily run of Climate Forecast System (from 1  2) • First fully coupled global ocean/atmosphere model • Air Quality • Expand Air Quality Forecast from Northeast U.S. to Eastern U.S.

  14. FY2006 Activities • Ocean • Wave Model • 10 member Ensemble Wave model – Spring (06) • Great Lakes Wave Forecast – Summer (06) • Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) • HYCOM-based, 1/12 degree North Atlantic Basin – Fall (05) Chesapeake Bay

  15. FY2006 Activities • Global Forecast System (GFS) – Spring (06) • GSI data assimilation • Apply hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate model • WRF – Spring (06) * • WRF based North America Mesoscale Run (Replaces Eta Model) • GFDL Hurricane Model – Spring (06) • Begin parallel runs of Hurricane WRF system

  16. 2005 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecast GENS GFDL G G S I WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM SREF GFS Dispersion Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW E D A S CFS NAM - Eta Air Quality NOAH Land Surface Model RUC L D A S

  17. WRF Implementation Schedule • “HiResWindow” for Hazardous Weather: (ARW and NMM) Implemented operationally at NCEP on 6/28/05 (~5 km) • WRF SREF members: Operational FY06 (1st Qtr) • North American WRF: Operational in FY06 (3rd Qtr) • WRF SREF: Fully Operational in FY07* • Hurricane WRF: Operational in FY07* • Rapid Refresh WRF: Operational in FY07* • WRF Chem: Beyond FY08* * As resources allow

  18. 2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecast Hurricane WRF GENS G G S I WRF-NMM WRF-ARW RSM ? SREF GFS Dispersion Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW R G S I CFS NAM - WRF Chem WRF* Air Quality NOAH Land Surface Model Rapid Refresh WRF L D A S *FY08

  19. WRF in NAM • Planned replacement of the Eta and its EDAS system with WRF-NMM and a WRF-GSI based NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) - March 2006 • WRF-NMM is the NMM put into WRF common modeling framework • NMM represents an evolutionary change: • Nonhydrostatic dynamics (can be turned off) • Terrain following coordinate instead of step-mountains (this has always been an option within the Eta code) • Tweaks / tunings to bring out “character” in QPF, etc. • WRF product set is identical with same names (BUFR sounding files extended to 84 hours)

  20. North American Mesoscale WRF • Horizontal resolution to increase from 12 km to 10 km • Model top to move from 25 mb to 2 mb (will help with assimilation of satellite radiances) • Levels stay at 60 – despite move of model top this is enough because of the switch from step mountain to terrain following coordinate • Eta 3D-VAR to be replaced by Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) – robust 3D-VAR scheme with no step mountains • Will assimilate mesonets, GPS IPW, boundary layer Profilers and (hopefully) Level II radial velocity • These are modest upgrade changes by previous standards

  21. Fire Weather IMET Support 12 km NAM 8 km NMM 8 km NMM captures CA coastal winds Green – model winds Red – observed winds

  22. 1h BREF (01Z) 12 km NAM (F13) 1h Tot Pcp 4 km WRF-EM (F25) 4.5 km WRF-NMM (F25) 1h Tot Pcp 1h Tot Pcp

  23. Service Center Activities

  24. Aviation Weather Center • WAFS Significant Weather implemented in BUFR format • New Flight Path Tool implemented on ADDS • Dramatic improvement in number of Pilot Reports filed through AWC webpage • Improvement in accuracy and usefulness of Collaborative Convective Forecast Products • Aviation thunderstorm advisory maps implemented on NOAA website • Massive change to WMO headers of AWC products

  25. Initiated Climate Test Bed infrastructure Wayne Higgins –Director CTB will accelerate the transfer of research and development into operational climate forecasts and products Climate Prediction Center

  26. Ocean Prediction Center • New automated technique developed by U of Wash using their boundary layer model to construct surface pressure analysis from Quikscat winds and available observations Surface Analysis GFS 0600 UTC 03OCT2005 UWPBL4.1 Surface Analysis 0657 UTC 03OCT2005 GFS analysis U of Wash technique GOES IR Satellite Image 0745UTC 03October2005 12.5km QuikSCAT 0740 UTC 03October2005

  27. Storm Prediction Center • Now producing experimental 3-8 day graphical fire weather outlooks • A short discussion will be added to the graphic when it becomes a Public Experimental Product (with PDD & comment period) in Spring 2006.

  28. Tropical Prediction Center • Experimental tropical cyclone surface wind speed probability • Tropical storm winds (> 39 mph) • > 58 mph winds • Hurricane winds (>74 mph)

  29. Space Environment Center • SEC formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9 • Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the “Sun to the Sea” • Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth • Service/Science linkage offers many exciting challenges for future growth to insure the delivery of weather/ocean/climate products to a diverse and increasingly sophisticated user community.

  30. Focus on HPC HPC Forecasters Add Value Models provide basis for improvement Correlations Of HPC with: Eta: 0.99 GFS: 0.74 NGM: 0.85

  31. HPC/NDFD Highlights • For decades HPC provided day 3 - 7 guidance • Max Temp, Min Temp, 24 hr (later 12 hr) Pop, surface progs • Spring 2004 - HPC asked to provide forecasts for additional fields including dew point, sky cover, wind direction and speed, and precipitation type • HPC requested to deliver these forecasts as 5 km grids • HPC began providing these fields in June 2004.

  32. Methodology • HPC has 2 forecasters/shift preparing day 4 – 7 forecasts (one shift/day) • One prepares surface progs and writes the narrative • Second prepares the max/min temperatures and PoPs • HPC uses N-AWIPS to generate forecasts • Forecasters start with MOS max/min temps and MOS12 hr PoPs • Forecasters can edit 384 stations; usually edit ~ 20 - 25% of stations for a particular forecast • Usually focus on areas they expect MOS to be deficient due to synoptic scale considerations • No additional forecasters made available • Additional fields increased the number of grids from 16 to 102 • Only solution was to generate additional fields automatically • Basic philosophy is to generate a set of grids consistent with the manually generated forecasts • Each additional field is generated from a manually prepared HPC product • Currently, these additional fields are not touched by a forecaster

  33. Grid Production • Max/min temperature grids are produced by interpolation of manually prepared point forecasts to a grid with Prism climatology as a background • PoP grids are interpolated from HPC modified stations • Dew points use the HPC temperature forecasts and MOS ensemble with Prism climatology as a background • Cloud cover is based on HPC PoPs and max temps • Winds are based on HPC surface progs • Precipitation type is based on HPC max/min temperature forecasts and on PoPs (for aerial coverage) • WFOs provide input between “preliminary” and “final” product release through 12Planet

  34. Verification Results • In general, HPC point forecasts are as good as or better than MOS and NDFD • HPC winds are poorest of all HPC grids • These results have been consistent from month to month

  35. How HPC adds value to Day 4 - 7 • HPC shows 5 – 10% improvement over MOS • Is this a good use of resources?

  36. How HPC adds Value to Day 4 – 7 (Cont.) • A “Big win” or “Big loss” occurs when HPC beats or looses to MOS by > 10 degrees. • In those cases, HPC is better than MOS ~ 80 percent of the time (sample size ~ 35 - 40) HPC BIG WIN VS BIG LOSS PERCENTAGES COMPARED TO GFS MOS 2004 % of time

  37. Issues • Time of release of forecasts • Some WFOs want HPC to issued grids earlier • HPC starts with MOS rather than previous forecast • Field prefers less “flip-flopping” • How involved do forecasters need to be? • Are post-processed grids good enough? • Should HPC provide probabilistic info? • QPF – exceedance values • Day 4 – 7 – ranges in addition to “best guess” • How is collaborative approach sustained?

  38. Future Plans • Continued improvement of methodology • Better algorithms for post processed fields • Faster processing of grids for earlier delivery • Better hardware • Optimize processing • Expand coverage to OCONUS • Explore other ways of creating sensible weather grids • Greater use of ensembles to create grids from selected blend • Forecasters focus on model selection and modification

  39. Winter Weather NWS Winter Weather Desk • Goals of 4 year experiment from 2001- 2004: • Improve Winter Weather Services to the public through coordination of the winter weather watches/warnings with National guidance products • Test short range ensemble for their applications to winter weather forecasting • Motivation: • Jan 24-25, 2000; December 30, 2000: March 4-6, 2001 • WWD “operational” September 15, 2004

  40. Regional Stats To date NWS FY05 LT is 18h, 3h greater than GPRA goal of 15h * Oct - Mar

  41. NWS Winter Weather Desk • Time line: Sep 15 – April 1 • Participants • NCEP HPC • Provide SREF based Winter Wx guidance • Coordinate with WFOs (Chat Room Technology) • WFOs • All CONUS WFOs • Use guidance from NCEP to produce coordinated Winter Storm Watches/Warnings • Products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml • 24 h probability (low, moderate, high) of meeting/exceeding 4”, 8”, 12” snow, 0.25” freezing rain (for day 1, 2, 3) • 72h Low tracks graphic and discussion

  42. Summary

  43. Summary • Strive to continue ongoing improvements • Develop partnerships • JCSDA • WRF • NOAA Ocean Plan • ESMF • Expand Collaborative Forecast Process: NCEP – RFC – WFO – CSWU • Apply ensembles and forecaster input to probabilisitic forecast products Daily Satellite Observation Count 2005 2003-4 Count (millions 2002

  44. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF • Includes housing 800 Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers • NESDIS research and satellite services • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Begin move to new facility September ’07 and complete by Feb ‘08

  45. Background Slides

  46. 78-h Ops NAM vs North American NMM valid 18Z 10 July 2005 66-h 54-h

  47. 42-h Ops NAM vs North American NMM valid 18Z 10 July 2005 30-h 18-h

  48. Top: NAM, NMM 72h fcst valid 12z 7/17 w/TPC 5 day track issued 15z 7/14 Bottom: NAM, NMM 48h fcst valid 00z 7/20 w/TPC 3 day track issued 03z 7/18 Ops NAM NAM NMM

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