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NCEP Ocean Modeling Review SES Summit Case Study

NCEP Ocean Modeling Review SES Summit Case Study. Overview of Ocean Modeling Review. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP December 16, 2004. NCEP Ocean Modeling Review Outline. Overview of Ocean Modeling Review Background Major recommendations Draft Responses Conclusions

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NCEP Ocean Modeling Review SES Summit Case Study

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  1. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewSES Summit Case Study Overview of Ocean Modeling Review Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP December 16, 2004

  2. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewOutline • Overview of Ocean Modeling Review • Background • Major recommendations • Draft Responses • Conclusions • Suggestions for improved integration

  3. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewBackground Report of the NOAA Science Advisory Board NCEP Ocean Modeling Review Panel Dr. L.J. Pietrafesa, Chair North Carolina State University Mr. D. Blaskovich, International Business Machines Dr. A.F. Blumberg, Stevens Institute of Technology Dr. A.J. Busalacchi, University of Maryland Dr. J. McClean, Naval Postgraduate School Dr. C.N.K. Mooers, University of Miami Dr. D.P. Rogers, Science Applications International Corp. Dr. R.H. Weisberg, University of South Florida

  4. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewBackground WHY: Responding to the NOAA/NWS request to address the following two-part charge: WHAT: 1) provide an assessment of the current ocean modeling activities at NCEP’s EMC including those that support global, regional and coastal applications for Climate, Weather and Marine forecasts; 2) provide a review of, and specific recommendations for, EMC’s future plans for the improvement of Ocean Models used operationally in NOAA, including the proposed approach for the next generation Modeling System based on the multi-agency Earth System Modeling Framework.

  5. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewBackground WHO: NOAA Science Advisory Board commissioned an Ocean Model Review Panel WHEN: Commissioned July 2003 1st meeting (NCEP) November 2003 2nd meeting (AMS) January 2004 Preliminary report to SAB March 2004 Final draft to NCEP July 2004 Final draft to NOAA November 2004

  6. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewMajor recommendations and draft response Recommendation 1: “Ocean, coastal ocean and Great Lakes modeling must be fully integrated into operational weather, climate, hydrologic and earth system forecasts.” Response: The necessary connectivity envisioned for the future within NOAA with downscaled, regional models at NCEP, will be efficiently executed with a common modeling framework, as is currently being developed in the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF).

  7. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewMajor recommendations and draft response Recommendation 2. “NCEP must develop internal and external partners committed towards implementing two-way, interactively coupled ocean-coastal-atmosphere models for operational forecasting.” Response: While within the broader context of NOAA, NCEP continues to justify the value and necessity for additional resources to implement coupled ocean-coastal-atmosphere models for operational forecasting, a proposal for a fully dynamical system is being funded in collaboration with the NOS Coastal Survey Development Laboratory.

  8. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewMajor recommendations and draft response Recommendation 3. “NCEP must develop a comprehensive strategy with the ocean community.” Response: NCEP is indeed the logical NOAA entity to develop a comprehensive strategy with the ocean community because NCEP needs to provide the kind of total forecast support (observations, model, products, delivery, forecast services) for the ocean as it currently provides for the atmosphere. To accomplish this, NWS and NOS are continuing to work together were NCEPs role will be in the basin scale and coastal scale effort, while NOS role would be in the regional estuarine (including Great Lakes) arena.

  9. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewConclusions With the release of the Ocean Commission Report, NOAA will be required to recognize the requirements for ocean state variable prediction coupled with atmosphere state variable prediction and that NCEP represents the “in-house” resource and institutional backbone best suited to realize improvements in both medium which will beneficially impact the other; The capacity building resulting from NCEP becoming a fully integrated into the ocean science community will enable NCEP to develop new, cost effective capabilities in meeting the Nation’s needs; and Because NCEP is the logical place for NOAA’s global ocean, coastal ocean, estuary and Great Lakes numerical modeling products, the need to partner with NOS, the Navy, industry, and the academic community has never been more important than now. Collectively we can achieve core capabilities and meet the necessary human and administrative resources to move forward aggressively.

  10. NCEP Ocean Modeling ReviewSuggestions for improved integration

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