1 / 28

Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP

Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director. “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”. Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Washington, D.C.

natane
Télécharger la présentation

Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Washington, D.C. October 3, 2011

  2. Outline • Define NCEP – Strategic Basis • Model Production Suite • Link between weather and climate models • NCEP’s Climate Forecast System • Recent upgrade to CFS Version 2.0 • Reanalysis/reforecast • Outreach • User/service workshop • COLA agreement • India MOU; model delivery • Future CFS • Version 3.0 – engaging the community through the Climate Test Bed • Multi-model ensemble • Summary

  3. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate, Weather, and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

  4. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

  5. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months • Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP*) 2 Week • North American Ensemble Forecast System • Global Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week • Global Forecast System • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Waves Real Time Ocean Forecast System • North American Mesoscale Hours • Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Hurricane WRF & GFDL Space Weather Tsunami Minutes • Dispersion Models for DHS Health Aviation Recreation Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce Hydropower Environment Maritime Fire Weather Life & Property Energy Planning Reservoir Control Emergency Mgmt Space Operations *To become available for NCEP operational seasonal prediction in Dec 2011

  6. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed OPC IOOS Supported Test Bed (in discussion with NOS/IOOS) Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community:Accelerating the R2O Transition Process 6

  7. Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC ASI, COLA, ARCS Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds CTB JCSDA WRF DTC JHT . . Delivery Operations R&D “To Accelerate R2O, Need to Support O2R” Transition from Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R) Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

  8. Model Production Suite Link between weather and climate models

  9. NOAA’s Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast Climate Forecast System • NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled GFSMOM4 NOAH Sea Ice ~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather (Future) North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation 9 9 NOAH Land Surface Model

  10. NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS)

  11. NCEP Requirement for CFS • CFS is the first dynamic model used for NCEP operational intra-seasonal and inter-annual forecasts • Operated in an ensemble mode (4/day) • To be combined with EUROSIP models as part of an International Multi-model Ensemble (by December 2011) • Provides real-time ENSO forecast for El Nino, La Nina alerts, watches and warnings • The CFS-based coupled Reanalysis provides the best estimate of the state of the coupled climate system, which is the basis for operational climate monitoring and analyses. • The CFS-based Reforecast provides basis for model calibration of CFS real time forecast used in CPC operations.

  12. US Seasonal Temperature GPRA* Measure CFSv1 implemented 48 month running mean of Heidke Skill scores computed for seasonal outlooks of U.S. Surface Temperature for each 3-month seasonal mean CTB spun up CFSv2 implemented *GPRA – Government Performance and Results Act

  13. NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) – Recent upgrade (March 30, 2011) T126

  14. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) • A T384/L64 (~ 38 km) reanalysis from 1979 – present (GFS/GSI – Atmosphere; MOM4 -Ocean; NOAH/GLDAS – Land; Sea Ice model) • A semi-coupled data assimilation • 6 hour guess forecast from a coupled model • Followed by independent ocean and atmosphere reanalysis • Implemented operationally in March 2011 • Data availability from National Climatic Data Center Number of OceanTemperature Profiles/month 1980-2009 CFSR data dumps (GB/Month) <--Depth Time 

  15. Climate Reforecast for CFS Version 2 • A coupled prediction system for extended-range and seasonal predictions ; Implemented March 2011, • Atmospheric model -resolution T126, 64 vertical levels • Ocean model (MOM4) horizontal resolution: 1/2 Deg. in zonal direction; 1/4 Deg between 10S-10N gradually increasing to 1/2 Deg poleward of 30S and 30N, Vertical Resolution: 40 layers; with 27-layers in upper 400m, and a bottom at approximately at 4.5 km in the ocean • Atmosphere/Ocean/Land/Sea Ice Initial conditions from the CFS Reanalysis • Reforecasts for calibration • Seasonal (9-month): 1981 – 2010 (4 runs every five days) • Extended-range (45-day) – 1999-2010 (4 runs every day) • Over 10,000 years of reforecasts • Data availability from the NCDC

  16. Outreach • CFS Needs Assessment Workshop (Mar 2011) • COLA agreement (Jul 2009) • India MOU (Nov 2010; model delivery (Apr 2011)

  17. CFS Needs Assessment Workshop March 8, 2011 • Goals • Identify CFS users’ needs for model codes and datasets • Develop formal prioritized needs assessment • Develop priority for real-time availability • Identify gaps • Scope user needs for NMME • Workshop attended by 50 (private industry, academia, federal, state and local agencies) • Results/Requirements • Internal services agreement between NCEP and NCDC in development to identify issues, requirements and options for high priority CFS development, execution, archive and dissemination activities • Real-time and reliable access to CFS ensembles, reanalysis, reforecast • Refinements to the reanalysis including downscaling, and at model resolution • More open process for defining CFS version 3 • Reanalysis Lite (unify resolution)

  18. COLA-NCEP CFS Collaboration • Letter of agreement: “Access to the NCEP Climate Forecast System” signed 15 July 2009 • Over 40 peer-reviewed papers 2008 - 2011 • Examples of CFS.v2 research efforts at COLA • Decadal experiments (1960-2010 initial conditions) per CMIP5 protocol • Extension of CFS.v2 to the CFS Interactive Ensemble (CFSIE) • Long free simulations with CFS.v2 and their analysis • Hypothesis-based experiments to address the weak AMOC variability in CFS.v2 • Diagnostics of CFS.v2 hindcasts • COLA ported CFS.v2 on different computing platforms (with some help from NCEP); COLA’s experience will help NCEP port CFS.v2 on NOAA’s research HPC Drift in Sea Ice thickness – Too much melt? Weaker AMOC

  19. Implementation Agreement on Modeling Between NCEP and Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), India • Implementation agreement signed November, 2010 • To develop and transfer extended range and seasonal forecast systems that will permit more accurate and timely predictions of Indian Monsoons for enhancing food security and other agricultural uses • April 2011 - NCEP scientists delivered the operational version of the GFS/GSI and CFS.v2 to the MoES • April 11-15, 2011, NCEP scientists held a workshop at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) on specialized training on the GFS/GSI and CFS.v2 • A jointly funded "Monsoon Desk" has been set up at NCEP to coordinate numerical model simulations and diagnostics with IITM and IMD during the next five years • Already documenting improved Monsoon, precipitation and MJO forecasts

  20. Future CFS • Version 3.0 • engaging the community through the Climate Test Bed • Multi-model ensemble opportunities

  21. Expectations Results of CFS Version 3 Planning Meeting August 25-26, 2011 • Organized by Climate Test Bed (CTB) • 48 participants: scientists from NCEP (EMC and CPC), NOAA management, US modeling centers (GFDL, NCAR, NASA/GSFC), international modeling centers (ECMWF, Italy/CMCC, India/IITM, Taiwan/CMB), other centers/labs of NOAA (PMEL, NWS/OST, ESRL, NWS/OHD) and scientists from universities and non-profit research institutes (COLA). • Define NOAA’s requirements and strategy for CFSv3 • Role of CTB to enhance NCEP collaborations with external community for CFS development • Identify range/role of CFS within MMEs (international and national): MME’s representing a major “force for change” in the model and service provider communities • Next Steps • Hold a CFS Science Workshop focused on CFSv2 evaluations in Spring, 2012 • Develop a White Paper on CFSv3 Development Strategy based on recommendations from the CFSv3 planning meeting

  22. Commitments for CFSv3 • NCEP Human Resources • EMC: • Model implementation • Data assimilation • Reanalysis/reforecast • NCO • Model implementation • Sustaining the operational model suite • CPC: • Model diagnosis/evaluation • Applications for operational ISI forecasts • CTB: • Outreach to the research community • Providing a model testing environment for CFS evaluation, diagnosis and improvement • Supporting Climate Process Teams • Facilitates the transfer of specific advances back into NCEP operational version • NOAA Computer Resources • GAEA – Site A • ZEUS – Site B • Operational WCOSS

  23. Future • IMME – EUROSIP • NMME • working toward “experimental real-time” • Coordinated and assessed through the Climate Test Bed • Working toward a CONOPS for operational real-time prediction • Real-time archive  CFS • Reanalysis • Reforecast • Daily forecasts

  24. Table 1. NMME Phased Strategy – coordinated through the Climate Test Bed

  25. Table2. Three Options for Hindcasts and Real time Forecasts in the Operational NMME Prediction System

  26. Summary • NCEP has successfully provided an operational Climate Forecast System • First dynamical model used by CPC • Improved seasonal/ENSO forecasts • Research community has become increasingly involved with the use of CFS version 1 and 2 for monsoon, MJO, decadal, and other research topics • NCEP is committed to support version 2 to version 3 improvements and related “O2R”  “R2O” paradigm • NCEP is positioned to help address ongoing opportunities/challenges related to creating a real-time NMME

  27. Appendix

  28. Number of Hits (Millions) Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate” • Transition to IBM Power 6 complete • Declared operational August 12, 2009 • 73.1 trillion calculations/sec • Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 • 156 POWER6 32-way nodes • 4,992 processors • 20 terabytes of memory • 330 terabytes of disk space • 3.5 billion observations/day • 27.8 million model fields/day • Primary: Gaithersburg, MD • Backup: Fairmont, WV • Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes • Web access to models as they run on the CCS Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010

More Related