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Innovations in NCEP Production Suite: Advancements in Meteorological Modeling

The NCEP Production Suite showcases major advancements in weather modeling, utilizing over 2.1 million lines of code and scripts. Key features include the rapid update cycle with various models such as the Eta Model (22 km, 50 levels updated four times daily), the NGM model (twice daily), and specialized hurricane forecasts. Notably, global ensembles are processed twice daily, and significant enhancements have been made in data assimilation and medium-range forecasting. The 2000 highlights underscore the commitment to improving weather prediction accuracy and timeliness.

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Innovations in NCEP Production Suite: Advancements in Meteorological Modeling

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  1. NCEP Production Suite • Production Suite • 425 codes – 11 utilizing message passing • 2.1 million lines of code & script • Major Model Runs • Rapid Update Cycle – 40 Km/40 Lvl (Hourly) • Eta Model – 22 Km/ 50 Lvl (4 times daily – 60 hrs) • NGM (twice daily) • Aviation Run – T170 (4 times daily – on-time 120hrs, off-time 84 hrs) • Medium Range Forecast (Once per day – 16 days) • Global Ensembles (12 members twice daily, T62) • Global Data Assimilation (4 times daily) • Hurricane (on demand – 4 storms, 4 times daily)

  2. 2000 Highlights • Eta Model • 22 km/40 lvl – September • On-time extended to 60 hrs • Off-time 48 hrs • Global Model • T170/48 lvl – January • On–time extended to 126 hrs • Off-time 84 hrs • GFDL Hurricane Model • Forecast extended to 120 hr - June • Up to 4 storms, 4 times daily

  3. 2000 HighlightsContinued • Wave Model • Global NWW3 replaced WAM – March • Regional model covering NW Atlantic – March Regional model coving Gulf of Alaska – March • NGM • Frozen in Time • Running from the Eta Analysis • No plans to remove in near future • Global Ensembles • T62  T126 from 0-60 hrs - July

  4. Planned Implementations • Eta Model • Extend runs to 84 hrs – January • Available on NCEP ftp server until NCF can evaluate resource requirements • Assimilate Precip, Upgrade land-surface model – April • FOUS to 60 hrs – May • Nested “Threats runs” – June • Available on NCEP ftp server • 12 km/60 lvl – November • RUC • 20 km/50 lvl – July

  5. Planned ImplementationsContinued • Regional Ensembles • May • Available on NCEP ftp server • Global Model • Prognostic Cloud Water, Convective Scheme, Tropical Storm relocation package – June • Ensembles • Extend high resolution (T126) from 60 to 84 hrs – January

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