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Collaborators: Ulrich Brose Carol Blanchette Jennifer Dunne Sonia Kefi Neo Martinez Bruce Menge

Collaborators: Ulrich Brose Carol Blanchette Jennifer Dunne Sonia Kefi Neo Martinez Bruce Menge Sergio Navarrete Owen Petchey Philip Stark Rich Williams …. Predictability. Predict. Biodiversity. Biodiversity. Prediction. Changes in Focal Species.

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Collaborators: Ulrich Brose Carol Blanchette Jennifer Dunne Sonia Kefi Neo Martinez Bruce Menge

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  1. Collaborators: Ulrich Brose Carol Blanchette Jennifer Dunne Sonia Kefi Neo Martinez Bruce Menge Sergio Navarrete Owen Petchey Philip Stark Rich Williams …

  2. Predictability

  3. Predict Biodiversity

  4. Biodiversity Prediction Changes in Focal Species

  5. ….add bit about yosemite toad or mt yellow legged frog

  6. How can we predict the consequences of species loss in complex ecosystems? Little Rock Lake Food Web (Martinez 1991)

  7. How can we predict the consequences of species loss in complex ecosystems? 1 degree Little Rock Lake Food Web (Martinez 1991)

  8. How can we predict the consequences of species loss in complex ecosystems? 2 degrees Little Rock Lake Food Web (Martinez 1991)

  9. How can we predict the consequences of species loss in complex ecosystems? 3 degrees Little Rock Lake Food Web (Martinez 1991) Williams et al. PNAS 2002

  10. Complex

  11. Complicated

  12. some hope

  13. metabolism

  14. <1> everything needs energy to stay alive

  15. <2> BIG things need more energy than small things

  16. <2> BIG things need more energy than small things 3/4 ( ) allometric scaling of metabolism with body size

  17. Feeding is Universal

  18. Food Webs are the foundation of Ecological Networks

  19. Body Size should predict the strength of interactions in food webs

  20. Feeding is Universal

  21. Universal ≠ The Only Thing

  22. Ubiquitous ≠ The Only Thing

  23. R. Donovan non-metabolic interactions

  24. Question

  25. can we explain with body size (metabolism)? ALL interaction strengths

  26. can we explain with body size (metabolism)? ALL interaction strengths

  27. WHAT can we explain with body size (metabolism)?

  28. WHAT NOT can we explain with body size (metabolism)?

  29. .

  30. repeat it

  31. can we explain with body size (metabolism)? ALL interaction strengths

  32. WHAT can we explain with body size (metabolism)?

  33. WHAT NOT can we explain with body size (metabolism)?

  34. abundance, interaction strength, etc. ?

  35. abundance, interaction strength, etc. feeding, body size, metabolism, etc.

  36. abundance, interaction strength, etc. feeding, body size, metabolism, etc.

  37. can we describe a metabolic baseline of interactions in complex networks?

  38. can we detrend metabolism in complex networks?

  39. Body Size also influences Food Web Structure Brose et al. 2005 Ecology Brose et al. 2006 Ecology Petchey et al. 2008 PNAS

  40. if each link obeys allometric rules are those rules preserved at the network scale?

  41. if each link obeys allometric rules will body size predict the effect of species loss in the network?

  42. does more complex = more complicated?

  43. Approach

  44. Simulation Results

  45. Real World

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