Pakistan

1. Pakistan

2. Pakistan: Headlines • massive terrorist and security challenges from Taliban and armed criminals • Pakistan’s ability to tackle terrorism and violent extremism within its own borders is vital to regional security and reducing the CT threat to the UK • significant human rights concerns • concerns over WMD proliferation • regional tensions with India • In 2013, total value of licensed goods (excluding Open Licences): £39m

3. Political Economic Travel Advice UK Relations Criteria Concerns End Users Recent Exports

4. Political • born out of the partition of the Indian sub-continent in 1947 • Created to meet the demands of Indian Muslims for their own homeland, Pakistan was originally made up of two parts: the east wing - present-day Bangladesh – and the west wing - present-day Pakistan • Broke up in 1971 when the Bengali-speaking east wing seceded with help from India • The disputed northern territory of Kashmir has been the flashpoint for two of the three India-Pakistan wars - those of 1947-8 and 1965. There was a further brief but bitter armed conflict after Islamic militants infiltrated Indian-administered Kashmir in 1999.

5. Political • Civilian politics tarnished by corruption, inefficiency and confrontation. Alternating periods of civilian and military rule • At parliamentary elections in February 2008, Musharraf’s supporters defeated by opposition Pakistan People's Party and Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League. • The two parties formed a coalition government and an impeachment process was launched against Mr Musharraf. The Muslim League went into opposition, leaving the People's Party to govern in coalition with smaller parties. • Parliamentary elections in 2013 brought the Muslim League back to power in the first transition from one elected government to another at elections in the country's history.

6. Political • Pakistan's place on the world stage shifted after the 11 September 2001 attacks. It dropped its support for the Taliban in Afghanistan and was propelled into the frontline in the fight against terrorism • repeatedly denied that senior al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders were present in the border areas, or that its intelligence service ISI even had links to Afghan armed groups. So the death in April 2011 of Osama Bin-Laden in Abbottabad, in the heart of Pakistan's military establishment, stretched relations with the US to breaking point • has struggled to maintain control over the tribal regions along the Afghan border, where Taliban-linked militants became firmly entrenched. These Sunni extremists have expanded attacks to target minority groups elsewhere in the country, in particular Shia Muslims and Christians.

7. Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATAs)

8. Political • The 2013 elections returned Nawaz Sharif to power for a third time • Sharif first emerged in the 1980s as a protege of military ruler Zia ul-Haq, and went on to serve as elected prime minister in 1990-1993 and 1997-1999, alternating in office with the left-leaning Pakistan People's Party (PPP) • He has set out an ambitious programme of public works, fighting corruption and ending US drone attacks on the Taliban and al-Qaeda • His first major breakthrough was the launch of peace talks with the Taliban in March 2014, aimed at an indefinite cease-fire

9. Political • Talks with the Taliban (TTP) have made little progress since February. But PM Sharif said in London on 5 May that the talks offered the "best option" of ending the country's long conflict • But few think the militants will accede to the government's demands. Pakistan Army is watching the talks anxiously, reluctant to give up hard-won gains to the militants. There are concerns that the talks will allow the militants time to gain strength and regroup.

10. Political • security had improved when the talks began. But since the brief ceasefire ended in mid-April, there have been more attacks and air strikes on militant strongholds in the country's tribal regions have resumed. • On 8 May: • at least 8 members of Pakistani security forces were killed in an ambush near the Afghan border in North Waziristan • fresh clashes between the rival Taliban groups SheryazMehsud and Khan Said, also known as Sajna, have left at least 10 militants dead in North Wazirstan • In Quetta, a bombing killed two people and injured at least 10 others. The victims were civilians, but the bomb -- planted in a motorcycle -- was believed to be targeting a security forces convoy

11. Political • Tensions with India over Kashmir have resurfaced regularly ever since the partition of the sub-continent, and the two nuclear-armed powers have on numerous occasions been on the brink of renewed conflict. • India has accused Pakistan of failing to cooperate adequately over the investigation into the November 2008 extremist attacks in Mumbai, and suspended talks on improving relations until May 2012, when civil servants agreed to resume contacts.

12. Economy: Positives • young and growing population of around 186 million. 50% under the age of 25 • growing middle class, who recognise many British products and brands due to the strong historical links with the UK. • Over 100 British businesses operate in Pakistan, including big players such as Standard Chartered, Barclays, GSK, Toni and Guy, Debenhams and Unilever. • Pakistan is ranked 110th by the World Bank in its Ease of Doing Business Index, higher than Argentina, Brazil and India • Over 1.2 million British citizens have family connections with Pakistan, and there are 1.4 million journeys annually between Pakistan and UK. • located in the middle of Asia and is a gateway to northern India, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and western China • similar legal practices to UK; ninth largest English speaking nation • educated workforce; low production and labour costs

13. Economy: Challenges • not yet experienced the rapid expansion seen in Asia’s emerging markets (IMF expects growth of 3% this year, rising to 5% in 3 years) • widespread sectarian violence and terrorism threats • bureaucratic hurdles when interacting with government officials • currently ranks 127th out of 177 countries in Transparency International’s Corruption Index with corruption widespread and deeply entrenched in the system • weak infrastructure and power shortages • weak labour law enforcement and lack of enforced IntelIectual Property Rights (IPR) standards • infrastructure bottlenecks, shortages in oil and gas supply, insufficient transport systems and a lack of State capacity to provide basic services, such as potable water, healthcare and education

14. Travel Advice FCO advise against all travel to: • the Federally Administered Tribal Areas • the districts of Charsadda, Kohat, Tank, Bannu, Lakki, Dera Ismail Khan, Swat, Buner and Lower Dir in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa • the city of Peshawar and districts south of the city, including travel on the Peshawar to Chitral road via the Lowari Pass • northern and western Balochistan • on the Karakoram Highway between Islamabad and Gilgit FCO advise against all but essential travel to: • the Kalesh Valley, the Bamoboret Valley and Arandu District to the south and west of Chitral in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa • the city of Quetta • the city of Nawabshah in Sindh Province, and areas of interior Sindh to the north of Nawabshah • Gilgit-Baltistan

15. Terrorism & Crime • The terrorism threat is complex: variety of militant groups include the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Al Qaida, Kashmir-focused groups, tribal groups, those seeking independence for Balochistan and others. Frequent attacks, mostly directed at military, Government or law enforcement targets, but westerners and western targets are also at risk, as well as areas inhabited by civilians such as busy marketplaces, mosques and shrines. • Violencein Karachi is largely political-ethnic and criminal, and serious outbursts can bring the city to a standstill. • Kidnappingis common. Although the majority of victims are Pakistani, westerners have also been taken. British nationals of Pakistani origin are at particular risk • Organised crime is rife. This includes money laundering, extortion, fraud, land scams and political violence • Smugglingis prevalent, helped by the country’s proximity to Afghanistan, China and India. Involves consumer goods, gold, Chinese and Korean electrical goods. Drug smuggling from Afghanistan via Pakistan and Iran into Turkey is a major business. • People trafficking used to be a major problem but recently reduced

16. Bribery & Corruption • ranked 139 out of 176 countries • widespread and deeply entrenched. It takes many forms ranging from petty bribery, nepotism and misuse of power to large scale bribes being demanded (and given). The main reasons for this high rate of corruption are poverty, low incomes, especially those of Government employees, and a lack of accountability. • New businesses may be invited to contribute a ‘facilitation fee’ to avoid an uncomfortably long wait for telephone lines and similar facilities. There is also corruption in the public procurement process. The country’s tax and public finance administration system is also marred by corruption. • The Government is making efforts to curb and eradicate corruption in the administration. But completing this task will be a major challenge. A National Anti-Corruption Strategy (NACS) was adopted in 2002.

17. UK Relations • HMG is striving to increase cooperation with Pakistan’s security forces as part of wider efforts to deepen bilateral engagement. • The UK’s flagship programme on counter-terrorism, CAPRI (CT Associated Prosecutorial Reform Initiative), aims to improve capacity in the counter terrorism criminal justice system to successfully investigate, prosecute, convict and detain high profile terrorists, in accordance with human rights standards. • ISAF forces in Afghanistan hope to extract the majority of their equipment through Pakistan as part of the pull-out from Afghanistan. • In 2013, UK goods exported to Pakistan were worth £472 million. Bilateral trade in goods and services had increased from £1.9 billion in 2009 to 2.2 billion in 2012. • Significant UK defence and security exports to Pakistan can have an impact on future UK-India defence and security engagement. But this should not be over-stated

18. Security and Defence needs Pakistan faces many security challenges. The opportunities in this sector include: • CCTV systems for local authorities and businesses • equipment for law enforcement agencies • equipment for Pakistan armed forces • armoured personnel vehicles

19. Criteria 1 & 7: Proliferation Concerns • Nuclear: Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program illicitly seeks goods from oversea • Missiles: Pakistan’s missile program is thought to illicitly acquire goods from overseas. Technology with possible missile-related uses are likely to be refused • Chemical: Pakistan is not thought to have a CW program, although a number of licences of valves and pipe work controlled for possible CW use have been refused by both the UK and the US • Biological: Pakistan is not thought to have BW program, and no licences for biological-related technology have been refused from either the UK or the US. • Diversion: Pakistan makes routine use of illicit procurement methods to obtain proliferation-sensitive items from the international marketplace. But it is not known to have transferred sensitive technologies onwards to other countries in the recent past despite having a history of doing so • End Users: exporters should screen customers against the lists maintained by the US Treasury and Department of Commerce (although such lists have no legal jurisdiction within the UK) • Finance: Pakistan routinely use intermediaries and front companies to procure proliferation-sensitive goods from the international marketplace.

20. Nuclear-related trade

21. Criterion 2: Human Rights • Pakistan remains near the bottom of many key international indices for human rights • Credible reports from US State Department, Human Rights Watch and the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan that the Pakistan police have been directly involved in committing torture, and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment, arbitrary detention, extrajudicial killing and deaths in custody • There have been repeated and detailed allegations since 2009 that the Pakistan military have been involved unlawful killings in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Total unlawful killings are reported to run into the hundreds • As a result, all exports to particularly to the police and the army are scrutinized closely

22. Criterion 3: Internal Tensions • Militants and insurgents operate in Pakistan’s border and tribal areas • Concerns around equipment which could be used to provoke or prolong conflict

23. Criterion 4: Regional Tensions • relations between India and Pakistan have been strained by a number of historical and political issues, including the Kashmir dispute and the numerous military conflicts fought between the two nations • Relations can deteriorate quickly following events, for example, following the Mumbai attack in 2008 • During the course of 2012 bilateral contact between India and Pakistan resumed. The two PMs met in New York in 2013. • Trade, border movement and legal co-operation have increased. • but there is always a risk that a single incident or series of events could lead to a deterioration at any point

24. End Users and Equipment • Navy and Air Force: few concerns except, mainly in the case of the Air Force, if there is a risk of the equipment being used against civilian ground targets eg reconnaissance UAVs – will they be used for broad-scale military intelligence or to support unlawful action by security forces? The use of UAVs in Pakistan is a highly sensitive issue, with close media and MPs’ interest • No issues with replacements parts for platforms they already have – C130s, Sea King helicopters, Pakistan Navy frigates. • Commercial end users rarely raise concerns, so long as it is clear that they have a credible commercial use and are not linked to a Government contract • Concerns focus on the police, army, ISI and paramilitaries

25. End Users and Equipment • IMSI grabbers and other surveillance equipment: the key test is which agency will use it and for what purpose. The declared end user may have a good record but how much do we know about who will control the use of the equipment. Likely to be a finely balanced Ministerial judgement • the Pakistan Navy has demonstrable evidence of competence and application of international norms, for example, in anti-piracy work • The Special Service Group (Navy)(SSG(N)) has been employed in FATA, but with no evidence of human rights abuses

26. 2013 Equipment approved • Military combat & support aircraft/helicopter components, engines • IED jammers, detection, disposal • Armoured plate • Assault rifles, weapon sights, silencers • Small arms ammunition • NBC detection equipment • Components for naval vessels • Aircraft communication eqmt • Electronic warfare eqmt • Eqmt employing cryptography • Military navigation eqmt • Body armour, helmets • Combat shotguns • Military support vehicles • Components for military radars • Imaging cameras • Sniper rifles • Chemicals • AWD vehicles with ballistic protection

27. 2013 Equipment Refused • Industrial production eqmt • Military electronic eqmt and software • Anti-friction bearings • Corrosion resistant eqmt • Pumps and components, seals • Drilling/mining eqmt • Non-ferrous alloys

28. Any questions? Richard Tauwhare Green Light Exports Consulting Email: richard@greenlightexports.co.uk Web: www.greenlightexports.co.uk Phone: +44(0)770 311 0880