Yves Poppe Dir. IP Strategy Teleglobe Canada

The peer 2 peer internetCrossing the IPv6 chasm toward new territories of revenue opportunitiesITU/BDT Arab Regional Workshop on IPv6Tunis, 20-22 July 2004 Yves Poppe Dir. IP Strategy Teleglobe Canada

Agenda • The exhausting address exhaustion debate • Peer 2 Peer and the next telecom revenue wave • Do or die

What do we understand by peer 2 peer? • Peer 2 peer refers to the capability of two individuals (voice, SMS…), an individual and a device (web access, calendar) or two devices (sensor networks) to set up communication and exchange information preferably anywhere, anytime, anymedia. Communication is set-up end to end, real time through an underlying network infrastructure. • The expression Peer 2 Peer is relatively recent and is used in the context of converging multimedia communication (voice, data, image) using the internet as converged network infrasrtucture. • Not to forget that today we have voice p2p with the PSTN while messaging p2p existed on the now defunct TWX and the dwindling telex network. Newest p2p messaging solution is SMS!

What is the big issue? • Coming out of the telecom recession: Industrywide famine for renewed revenue growth • Consensus : the next multibillion revenue opportunities imply network convergence, multi-functional end-devices, always on, always p2p reachable, mobile and endowed with end to end security. • Growing consensus: The converged network will be IP based. • Billions of dollars already invested in support of IPv6: • Switches/routers: Alcatel, Cisco, Extreme, HP,Juniper, Fujitsu, Hitashi, NEC… test devices: Spirent • End devices: Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, Siemens, Sony • Gaming devices: Xbox and Sony • Software: Microsoft Windows, Apple Jaguar, IBM E-computing

But why are IPv6 and p2p so crucial? • Peer to peer implies permanent addresses. How else can I be reached anywhere, anytime with any type of medium, by people and communicating devices? • The issue : The internet is running out of permanent addresses. New revenue opportunities and successful recovery from the recession risk derailment. • The remedy: • IPv6 which has a much larger address field than the currently used IPv4 protocol (128 bits vs 32) and is standardized by IETF • The other crucial advantages of IPv6 are mandatory support of end to end security, plug and play mode to add devices to the network and scaleable support of mobile devices.

Is the internet in an impasse? • IPv4 addresses are effectively being rationed and will likely run out by 2008-2010 • The shortage is hidden by the proliferation of NAT’s which allow re-use of addresses. • Worse than having an extension number behind a PBX • Like having a manually patched phone call nearly a century ago. • Telephony in 1920 needed permanent phone numbers and peer 2 peer communications • Internet in 2004 needs permanent addresses and peer 2 peer communications

Limitations of a one way internet • The internet today : • 500 million people and devices who cannot reach each other directly. A couple of million major servers sitting in the network cloud mediate everything and are the biggest security risk. • The last real innovation was www back in the mid 90’s • Allowed millions of end users to easily surf amongst billions of pages stored in servers everywhere in the cloud and fed the growth for half a decade. • File sharing (à la Napster and Kazaa) took over as main engine of traffic growth in recent years and dwarfs web access in traffic volume. • What is the next stage in the evolution?

The internet was not meant to be that way • mid 70’s: The Pouzin/Cerf concept implied that the network addresses were by definition unique • The IPv4 internet (born january 1st 1984) was supposed to be free of any artifacts impeding end to end reachability. • In 1994 with an address shortage looming, IETF defined private, non unique network addresses : the beginning of the end of p2p • In all fairness, this is what likely allowed 20 years of spectacular internet growth without the often predicted collapse or implosion • IPv4 was introduced 20 years ago (January 1st 1984) and has served us well but is now bursting at the seams. It is our duty to usher a new growth phase in the history of the internet.

1983 1984 RFC 1105 : BGP introduced as EGP did not scale anymore 1989 Prediction of the exhaustion of IPv4 Class B by 1994 1990 Prediction of the exhaustion of IPv4 addresses by 2005-2011 1992 RFC 1466: shortage of class B’s results in directive to assign blocks of Class C's instead of Class B's 1993 The exhausting exhaustion debate Jan 1st : “flag day” IPv4 replaces Network Control Protocol (NCP) in Arpanet. Had 8 bit network and 24 bit host addresses. • RFC 791: A, B, C, D, & E class system for address allocation. • RFC 917 formalizes subnetting. The number of entries in the "core" routing tables begin to grow exponentially and results in BGP4 and CIDR prefix addressing. Introduction of Network address translators (the evil NAT’s) breaks the end to end nature of the internet Registries start to assign IPv6 addresses - IPv6 forum formed. 1999 May 2004 The exhaustion debate still rages on

For when the exhaustion of IPv4 addresses ? Sometime between 2008 and 2020 Geoff Huston at RIPE mtg sept2003 Amterdam: Jim Bound at IPv6 forum May 2003 Madrid

Why such a discrepancy using the same data? • Tony Hain offers an explanation (Beijing, april 2004) • RFC 3194 explains the allocation inefficiency of addresses • Adjusting the raw RIR numbers to compensate for the historical efficiency of 87% matches the remaining IANA pool and deducts 12 years from Geoff Huston’s projection. • This sterile debate misses the essential points: • IPv4 addresses are effectively being rationed by ISP’s • Shortage is hidden by the proliferation of NAT’s • Status quo is defendable but at a huge risk of progressive suffocation of the internet and sterility in revenue growth. • The address dam will burst before too long under the presure of p2p VoIP, e2e point to point secure connection, e2e VPN’s, mobile IP, RFID, grid applications, telemetry etc.

The uneven resource distribution Thanks to Prof Xing Li , Cernet, presented at IPv6 Forum Feb 2003

More equity in the IPv6 world? As presented by Latif Ladid dec 2003

IPv6: enough addresses for some time • 128 bit addresses instead of 32 bits in IPv4 • For those of us used to count in decimal: 2128=3.4x1038 or 340 trillion trillion trillion addresses • to be really precise: 2128 = 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 • Enough to give an address to every cm2 of the surface of a sphere with a radius of about 25 lightyears! Diameter of Pluto orbit is 11.9x1014 cm Note: Proxima Centauri, our closest neighbour is 4.2 lightyears away; more than 30 stars are within 25 LY! 1 LY = 9.453x1017 cm

Perceived IPv6 drivers • Mobile IP • Peer 2 peer networking • Peer 2 peer gaming • Peer 2 peer voice over IP • RFID networks • Sensor networks • Microsoft Three Degrees? • Mass of end-user devices • Prevalence of digital access • Wi-Fi and Wi-Max • National policies and economic weight Disruptive potential on existing carrier business models??

Mobile IP as IPv6 driver • Mobile nodes must be able to move from router to router without losing end-to-end connection • A home address to maintain connectivity • Many,many care-of address to maintains route-ability • billions of care-of addresses needed in the future: forget v4

Sloan Digital Sky Survey Peer to peer networking as IPv6 Driver • Entertainment content sharing • Napster, Kazaa, Morpheus, • Grokster, Gnutella … • Science content sharing • Quarknet • SDSS • Neptune… • Distributed data processing • SETI@home • Folding@home • Fightaids@home…

Peer to peer VoIP as IPv6 Driver ? • Aug 29th 2003: Skype set up in Stockholm by Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis, founders of Kazaa. Promises high quality p2p phone calls over the internet to always on customers (ADSL and cable). • Based on e2e VoIP, a good algorithm for voice, PC’s with headsets. • April 8th 2004: Skype reaches 10 million downloads ( 16.3 million on july 10th) althought nothing spent on marketing the software and around 250,000 are estimated to have used it. • “We have a big ambition with Skype: it is to make it the global telephone company” (Int’l Herald Tribune oct 13th 2003). • Skype plans to offer access to PSTN to allow Skype users to call everybody for a ¨small¨ fee. • Recently made their site accessible in Chinese, Japanese and Korean • April 6th: launches PocketSkype for Wi-Fi hotspot access • Not bad at all for an eleven month old – Congratulations – • Are revenues next? Should telco’s take notice?

Peer to peer VoIP : SIPphone • SIPphone: founded by Michael Robertson, of Lindows and MP3.com fame on august 6th 2003. Introduced a VoIP SIP based phone; it has an ethernet plug, connects to your broadband and can dial up any other SIP device in the world. It comes with a preset SIP phone number. • SIP 2.0 • SIP for IM and Presence • Layer 2 and Layer 3 QoS • Three-way conferencing • Hands-free speakerphone • Caller ID, Call waiting • Hold, Forwarding, Transfer • April 4th 2004: teams up with Singapore’s Singtel Even looks like a phone! And if you want to continue to use your existing phone: SIPphone call in one!

P2P gaming as IPv6 Driver • Gaming market is projected to exceed $5 billion by 2006. • On line gaming today is mostly client/server: creates serious bandwidth and processing bottlenecks • Xbox and Playstation are IPv6 ready • Sony’s Everquest: (as reported in Asian WS Journal nov 26th 03) • Role-playing on-line fantasy game • 500,000 users worldwide • Average 22 hours/user.week on-line • Characters and treasures existing only in virtual world are even traded on E-Bay!!

RFID’s as IPv6 driver • Current RFID’s contain 18 bytes of data. • Mu-chips have 128 inalterable bits, are 0.4x0.4x0.28 mm • Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s top 100 suppliers already attach RFID tags to shipping pallets so the chain can track shipments; all suppliers by 2006. • Generalized use of RFID implies terabytes of traffic daily. • US DoD to mandate RFID tags by jan 2005 (oct 2nd2003 memo by Undersecretary of Defence) • RFID tags considered for passports and even banknotes • IATA might mandate RFID as baggage tags • RFID in casino chips in Vegas!

Sensor networks as IPv6 driver • Self organizing sensor networks (DARPA Sensit project) • MANET: Mobile Ad-hoc Networks • Smart Dust : Autonomous sensing and communication in a cubic millimeter • Intel Deep Network projects • Radio Free Intel : vision of adding wireless capabilities to every device by integrating the radio circuits and systems directly into every component • m2m (machine 2 machine) communication: 50 billion machines, only 6 billion humans (Forrester, cited in International Herald Tribune oct 14th)

Microsoft as an IPv6 driver? • Three Degrees • Feb 2003: Microsoft launches beta for small private networks of up to 10 people to exchange short messages, animation, pictures and music (audiofiles streamed, not copied) • Uses IPv6 tunnels and NAT traversal. • Commercial rollout later in 2004 in Windows XP • WASTE : downloadable freeware answer • p2p network for up to 50 users, encrypted. • Instant messaging, chat and filesharing • Barebones and not too user-friendly but free • Next version of Windows, codename Longhorn could become one of the major IPv6 drivers

End-user devices as a driver :relentless move to digitaland to communication • 2003 will likely go down in history as an inflexion point: • More digital cameras sold than film based (44 million) • 57 million cellphones with camera from which 6 million in the USA; brings worldwide total 80 million after 3 years on the market (source:IDC). Newest models have 1 megapixel. • Proportion of laptops and desktop PC sales closing in on 50-50. • Wi-Fi boxes and embedded Wi-Fi (14.2 million - Intel Centrino) • Start of acceleration for plasma TV sales (1.8 million units) • Take-off phase of DVR (Digital Video Recorder) with 2.7 million

« Countdown to a battle royal for the living room » (Financial Times Jan 14th 2004) • The Consumer Electronic show in Vegas early January saw the first serious salvos in what could be a titanic battle between the computer industry (Intel, Microsoft) and the electronics industry (Sony, Philips, Toshiba, Panasonic..) • The stakes are huge: $101 billion consumer market int he US alone for 2004 (Consumer Electronics Association). Bill Gates called it « seamless computing » and Panasonic’s Ohtsubo called it « lifestream » • « once music, video, photography and mobile telephone become digitized, recording, replaying and editing become an exercise in applied computing » • The essence of the battle is a kind of a home « mediacenter » with all devices connected in a plug and play mode, preferably wireless. • Pressure from the PC industry is expected to shorten product cycles, decrease margins and move the consumer industry more to standards. • The consumer industry has an edge in providing easy, reliable systems. • Sony had already announced that starting 2005 all its products will be IPv6 enabled. The Microsoft Xbox also. Let the battle start!

Prevalence of fast digital access as a driver • ITU digital access index 2002: • Ranking measured on • number of phonelines/inhabitant • Number of cellphones/inhabitant • Cost of going on-line • National literacy • Speed of connections available • % of inhabitants using internet Ranking compared to 1998: rise of Asia, receding dominance of anglophone countries, still a poor showing for major continental European countries

Prevalence of fast digital access as a driver Q3 2003 : worldwide total of broadband lines grew to 89.4m, an increase of 10m from the 79.4m lines at the end of June 2003. (Source : Ovum) For sure, 100 million + BB accesses worldwide by now (Feb 2004) It took mobile phones about 5.5 years to grow from 10m to 100m worldwide. Broadband has achieved the same growth in only 3.5 years

Fast digital access: a US presidential campaign issue! • April 12th: Terry the Techie (Business Week April 9th 2004) • “Kerry will likely propose a series of federal levers to get truly fast broadband into more households. They include tax credits for companies that deploy next-generation speeds -- boosting today's 1 to 3 megabit-per-second data transfers to as much as 20 megs. He will also encourage the feds to free up more airwaves for new wireless technologies to compete with cable and phone companies and drive down prices.” • MINNEAPOLIS, April 26 (Reuters) • “U.S. President George W. Bush on Monday urged the U.S. Congress to make Internet access permanently tax free and to reduce regulations so high-speed access can be universally available by 2007. Bush complained that the United States was ranked 10th in the deployment of broadband, or high-speed access.”

Wi-Fi and Wi-Max as drivers • Toward a critical amount of coverage and critical mass of end-user devices • spectacular success of Wi-Fi routers at home and adoption in hotspots (i.e T-Mobile with Starbucks) • Wildfire success of Intel Centrino based laptops • Wi-Max: • IEEE 802.16 : radius of up to 30 miles (100 feet for wi-Fi) at speed of 70mbps; rival to DSL and cable for fixed BB • Will be used to connect Wi-FI hotspots, later for rural BB and roaming. Is backed by Intel, Nokia and Alcatel • First products out in late 2004 • A solution to a good part of the digital divide? Disruptive?

Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, ZigBee, Mobile-Fi, Ultrawideband…. • Will the convergence of cellular telephony and IP come on the heels of fixed line telephony and IP? • VoIP is considered disruptive for fixed line carriers business models at this stage. Will cellular telephony be the next battlefront? Business Week, April 26th 2004

National policies and economic weight • With the support from the Chinese government, China’s five major Carriers are starting to build the CNGI :China Next Generation Internet • This year’s China IPv6 Summit (april 12-24th 2004) theme: "CNGI Ongoing, China IPv6 Engine" • Stated objective: " It will become one of the largest IPv6 networks in the world by the year of 2005, speeding up the IPv6 R&D in China and providing tremendous business opportunities for industry global wide. " • Chinese officials stated that they want the Chinese internet to be completely IPv6 in time for the 2008 Olympics

China’s weight in the internet balance • BW (March 15th issue): Source: Business Week March 15th 2004 issue

The perils and opportunities of IPv6 • Some existing businessmodels and revenue streams might be turned on their head • VoIP: already started even before widespread adoption of IPv6. What happens to long distance revenues? • Look at Japan in 2003: Yahoo BB signs up 3 million subscribers, NTT long distance drops 20% • Revenue opportunities higher in the value chain • New end to end services can easily be launched independently of the underlying service providers. i.e. VPN’s, p2p gaming, p2p VoIP, push and location based services, tracking and monitoring services etc

Who is afraid of IPv6? • Local telco’s phase a dilemma: • ADSL represents a growing revenue contribution • Combine this with permanent IP addresses and the erosion of LD revenue accelerates. • Cablecos on the other hand have nothing to lose on the LD side and have a starting gate advantage when home entertainment evolves toward multimedia hubs. • Their recent endorsement of VoIP : how much to cut network backbone costs, how much to pass on to the consumer? • Next battleground : Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, cellular telco’s should have the advantage • But who could stop the tide? King Canute (994?-1035)

Internet Enterprise firewall cum NAT Internal Network Last stand of the NAT box providers • Create confusion between hidden addresses and security. Absurd argument as the lowest probability of security breach is with one on one bilateral, encrypted, without any address manipulation. • change in security paradigm : from bastion approach to host based security. Throughout history bastions have been vulnerable targets. One on one security associations Enterprise firewall Host Firewall

Crossing the chasm As presented by Latif Ladid, President IPv6 forum

The innovator’s dilemma • How can I connect isolated IPv6 islands in distant labs on several continents who do not have ATM, FR or LL connectivity (often too expensive for R&E budgets)? • Aha! Why not build tunnels and encapsulate IPv6 in IPv4 packets and traverse the existing IPv4 based internet? • The 6Bone experimental tunnel network as overlay on the current internet. 6Bone has been the worldwide glue allowing IPv6 development and interoperability testing in the Innovator Years.

The 6bone experimental network • Idea born in Montreal at summer 1996 IETF meeting! • The IETF arranged for a block of IPv6 addresses to be assigned: the famous 3ffe series (RFC 2471) • first address allocations in may 1998 • 6Bone led to a number of tunnel brokers as meet me points, with the Quebec City based freenet6 the hub of more than 100,000 tunnels over the years. • In 1999 the ATM PVC based 6TAP meet me point was set up in Chicago.

IPv6 in IPv4 IPv6 in IPv4 IPv6 in IPv4 IPv6 in IPv4 IPv6 +IPv4 IPv6 IPv4 only IPv4 IPv4 IPv4 6Bone IPv4 Freenet6, IIJ,CSELT The 6bone wonderyears 6Bone Born 1998 IPv6 +IPv4 IPv6 +IPv4

The long incubation period • Early motivation for IPv6: • Asia: looming address shortage • Europe : 3G and mobility • North-America : none • The telecom recession and the lack of compelling applications to justify upgrade to IPv6 support. • Wait and see attitude – lab setups but no serious deployment. No or timid push by equipment suppliers. • Concentration on selling ADSL and cable connections.

Early adopters • The palm goes to the R&E network community • Canarie, Surfnet, Renater, Abilene etc. • Their procurement decisions in 2001-2002 created some disruptive effects on the router supply scene. • On the carrier side, NTT Japan has assumed the role of undisputed trailblazer on the road to IPv6.

The IPv6 Big Bang leads to the chasm • R&E networks • Abilene, Ca*net4, Nordunet, Renater, HEAnet etc have completed their upgrade. • May 9th 2002 Internet2 announced support of native IPv6 on the Abilene network put the USA on par. • IPv6 support on the Pan-European Géant network was officially inaugurated in Brussels on January 15th 2004 • US Military (Department of Defense) • Announced in june 2003 that as of oct 1st 2003 all DoD issued RFQ’s would make IPv6 support obligatory. The USA is all of a sudden no IPv6 laggard anymore. • The Moonv6 exercise forces equipment suppliers and network operators out of hiding.

IPv6 in IPv4 IPv6 in IPv4 IPv6 in IPv4 IPv6 +IPv4 IPv6 IPv4 only universe IPv4 IPv4 Dual Stack IPv4 + IPv6 IPv4 IPv4 The big bang IPv6 +IPv4 IPv6 +IPv4

Crossing the chasm • Still relatively unclear : how wide is the chasm? • One certainty : it will be crossed • Why? The continuing economic well-being of large segments of the telecom industry depends on successfully crossing the IPv6 chasm. • A growing number of companies are preparing themselves to take the leap to early majority including Teleglobe while many laggards still procastinate

Thank you for your attention

Yves Poppe Dir. IP Strategy Teleglobe Canada