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Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

William. M. Lapenta Deputy Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP With contributions from Many EMC Staff. Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center. Presentation Outline. EMC Mission and Organization The NCEP Model Production Suite

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Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

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  1. William. M. LapentaDeputy DirectorEnvironmental Modeling CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEPWith contributions from Many EMC Staff Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

  2. Presentation Outline EMC Mission and Organization The NCEP Model Production Suite Global Forecast (+ Ensemble) & Data Assimilation System Global Coupled Climate Forecast System CONUS Mesoscale Model Systems Short Range Ensemble System Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model Rapid Update Cycle Convergence through FY13 Real-time Ocean Forecasting Hurricane Forecasting Transition of research to operations 2

  3. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC NHC NCO OPC HPC EMC SPC AWC SWPC

  4. The EMC Mission….. In response to operational requirements: • Develop and Enhancenumerical guidance • Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via: • Scientific upgrades • Optimization • Additional observations • Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations • Transform & integrate • Code • Algorithms • Techniques • Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation • Maintain operational model suite • The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems • Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes 45% 30% EMC location within the funnel 25%

  5. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months • Climate Forecast System 2 Week • North American Ensemble Forecast System • Global Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week • Global Forecast System • Land Surface • Ocean • Waves • Tropical Cyclone • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days • North American Mesoscale Hours • Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation • GFDL • HWRF Minutes • Dispersion Models for DHS Health Aviation Recreation Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce Hydropower Environment Maritime Fire Weather Life & Property Energy Planning Reservoir Control Emergency Mgmt Space Operations

  6. Supercomputing at NCEP IBM Power6 p575 • 69.7 Teraflops Linpack • 156 Power6 32-way Nodes • 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz • 19,712 GB memory • 320 TB of disk space per system • 13 PB tape archive Fairmont, West Virginia Cirrus— (backup) Gaithersburg, Maryland Stratus— (primary)

  7. Production Suite on Supercomputer September 2009 Development Work Number of Nodes 12 18 06 00 Time of the day (utc)

  8. Production Suite on Supercomputer July 2010 Development Work Missing Data Number of Nodes 12 18 06 00 Time of the day (utc)

  9. Global Forecast System (GFS) Horizontal Representation Spectral (spherical harmonic basis functions) with transformation to a Gaussian grid for calculation of nonlinear quantities and physics. Vertical Representation Sigma coordinate. Lorenz grid. Quadratic-conserving finite difference scheme by Arakawa and Mintz (1974). Vertical Resolution 64 unequally-spaced sigma levels. For a surface pressure of 1000 hPa, 15 levels are below 800 hPa, and 24 levels are above 100 hPa. • 4 Cycles per day • T574 (~28km) to 7.5 days • T190 (~70km) to 16 days

  10. GSI 3D-VAR/GFS Plans for FY10 • Data Assimilation (Implemented 17 December 2009) • Assimilate: • NOAA-19 AMSU-A/B, HIRS • RARS 1b data • NOAA-18 SBUV/2 and OMI • Improved use of GPS RO observations • Refractivity forward operator • Allow more observations, in particular in the tropical latitudes, due to better QC checks for COSMIC data • Better QC procedures Metop/GRAS, GRACE-A and CHAMP • Upgrade implemented 28 July 2010 • Increase horizontal resolution • T382 (35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L for 0 to 192hr forecast • Remains T190 (~70km) & 64L for 192-384 hr forecast • Upgrade GFS physics (Radiation, shallow/deep convection and PBL) • Modified SW and LW radiation calculations (aerosol effects, co2, cloud interaction) • Detrainment from all levels (deep convection) • Testing at low resolution shows reduction in high precipitation bias • PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus) • Includes gravity wave drag (effect of topography)

  11. GFS Plans for FY10 Implemented 28 July 2010 Updated GFS physics package eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs” • Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL • Detrainment from all levels (deep convection) • PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus) • GSI/GFS Resolution • T382 (~35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L 24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009 Operational GFS Observed Upgraded Physics GFS

  12. GFS Upgrade Atlantic Hurricane Track Error2008 Hurricane Season 2008 Operational – Blue December GFS Package – Red T574 with upgraded Physics - Green

  13. GFS Upgrade EPAC Hurricane Track Error2008 Hurricane Season 32% Improvement over 2008 Prod 25% Improvement over 1Q10 Prod 2008 Operational – Blue December GFS Package – Red T574 with upgraded Physics - Green

  14. Upgraded GFS 500mb AC Days 0-9 NH for August 2010 “The medium range HPC map discussion lead showed the NH 500 and > 1000 dieoff curves for August and said they now often prefer the GFS to > ECMWF, not only over North America but also in the tropics” EC > GFS EC < GFS

  15. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)Implemented February 2010 • Upgrades: • Increase horizontal resolution from T126 (~90km) to T190 (~70km) • 4 cycles per day, 20+1 members per cycle • Forecast duration to 384 hours (16 days) • Use 8th order horizontal diffusion & stochastic perturbation scheme to account for random model errors • improve forecast skill • Increase ensemble spread and forecast skill (reliability) • Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) for GEFS • Version 3.1.0rp2 • Allows concurrent generation of all ensemble members • Needed for efficiency of stochastic perturbation scheme • Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files • Based on user request • From current 52 (variables) to future 79 (variables) • For NAEFS ensemble data exchange

  16. NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa HeightPeriod: August 1st – September 30th 2007 GEFSg extends skillful forecast (60%) for 9+ days 24 hours better than previsou GEFS 48 hours better than current GFS

  17. North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service • Elements: • Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) • Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products from an arbitrary number of forecast systems • Establish operational data transfer • Application to operational products with shared software • Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy • Global ensemble products • NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) • operational in NAEFS • 20 members -16 days • CMC • operational in NAEFS • 20 members - 16 days • FNMOC • Currently experimental in NAEFS • 16 members, 10 days, 52 variables • Final evaluation of upgraded FNMOC ensemble system • 20 members, 16 days and 73 variables

  18. Value-added by including FNMOC ensembleinto NAEFS 2m Temperature

  19. Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11

  20. Climate Forecast System (CFS V.2) System Two essential components: Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, seaice and land over the 31-year period (1979-2009) is required to provide consistent initial conditions for: A complete Reforecast of the new CFS over the 28-year period (1982-2009), in order to provide stable calibration and skill estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal prediction at NCEP Total = 6351 + 1620 + 1476 = 9447 years. • 9 month (interannual) • 4 month (seasonal) • 45 day (monthly)

  21. Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global) Example surface currents from MMAB parallel • Adopting Navy 1/12° global HYCOM model using • Daily initialization from NAVO. • GFS forcing. • Daily 7-8 day run with 2 day spin-up. • NCO parallel to start FY2010Q4. • Establish reliability of NAVO data feed. • Establish compatibility of NCEP and Navy forcing. • Develop products with customers. • Full data on NOMADS. • Become operational in FY2011Q4

  22. FY11 Major System Implementations Result of joint NCO-EMC planning process (Starosta, Cary, and staff)

  23. Mapping Testbeds Into the EMC Organizational Structure • Alignment between testbed and NCEP/EMC missions is critical to success • Some testbeds are able to provide support to NCEP staff to participate • Land surface modeling team has been very successful working with NOAA/CPO outside the testbed system • Data assimilation team is a core NCEP infrastructure

  24. Thanks for your attention.Questions? 25

  25. NOMADS Update • Real-time Server supported 24x7 by NCEP & WOC • Ability to “slice and dice” by domain, resolution, variable, ensemble membership • Access to NCEP’s operational data sets as they are being generated • Short-term archive ~ month • Geographically-diverse backup server to ensure operational availability • Quarterly updates expected between NCO & EMC 26

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