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Acquisition and Application of the Cellular Automaton Urban Growth Model

This project focuses on the cellular automaton urban growth model (UGM) developed by Keith C. Clarke and Jeannette Candau. The model has been applied to various cities and new applications are underway. The model is now portable and web-based and will be integrated with other efforts. It handles land use at a crude level and calibration is in progress. The project website provides background materials, documentation, source code, and sample calibration data. Implementations have been done on DEC, Silicon Graphics, and Cray supercomputers. The model output includes data layers, animation sequences, statistics, and a historical database. Various cellular land transition models are being explored for model refinements.

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Acquisition and Application of the Cellular Automaton Urban Growth Model

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  1. Acquisition and Application of the Cellular Automaton Urban Growth Model Keith C. Clarke and Jeannette Candau NCGIA/Dept. of Geography Santa Barbara, CA Internet: kclarke@geog.ucsb.edu

  2. Cellular urban modeling • Clarke cellular automaton urban growth model (UGM) • Multiple applications (e.g. San Francisco, Washington/Baltimore) Project Gigalopolis • New applications under way: Chicago, New York, Portland, Philadelphia, MAIA, Mexico City, Santa Barbara • 1998/9 funding has made model portable and web-based (USGS: EROS Data Center, EPA Collaboration) • 1999-01 work will extend and integrate model with other efforts (LANL and USGS collaboration, NSF Urban Research Initiative)

  3. Model now handles land use • So far works at crudest level (Anderson Level 1) • Calibration under way in MAIA and Lower 48 States (GIRAS, MRLC, Loveland) • Needs two LULC layers • Based on the concept of deltatrons

  4. Project Web Site • Set of background materials, e.g. publications • Documentation as web pages in HTML • Source Code for model in C • Uses utilities and GD GIF libraries • Set of sample calibration data Demo_City • http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/ncgia.html

  5. Implementations to date • DEC • Silicon Graphics (Indy 10000 and O2) • Silicon Graphics (Materials Res. Science and Engineering Center: NSF-funded) Origin 2000 cluster 32 processors: 2GB RAM • Cray Supercomputer (EPA: N. Carolina)

  6. The Urban History of Demo_City • Small but rapidly growing hypothetical city • Founders determined that city would conveniently fit into 200 x 200 square grid • Calibration uses scale independence of key control parameters • City has no social problems, only residents are bits • Conveniently isolated from external forces • Has proven difficult to model!

  7. Model output • Data layers for import into GIS • Animation sequences for visualization • Statistics • Historical data base

  8. Cellular land transition models • Increasingly important methods • Many different models • Transition probability based • Deltatron changes weighted methods by forcing autocorrelation in change space • Allow modeling, visualization and experiments

  9. Model refinements • Higher attribute resolution • Alternative drivers • Temporal sensitivity • Density linkage • Coupling (loose vs. tight) • Growth management “Smart growth”

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