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ENSO –El Niño Southern Oscillation

ENSO –El Niño Southern Oscillation. Drivers of ENSO variability By MSc. Per Strandberg. Current understanding of ENSO by the climate community. Dynamic Models : Understanding Good Walker circulations, Kelvin Waves Forecast : Bad 2-3 months Long range forecast impossible : Wrong

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ENSO –El Niño Southern Oscillation

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  1. ENSO –El Niño Southern Oscillation Drivers of ENSOvariability By MSc.Per Strandberg

  2. Currentunderstandingof ENSO by the climate community • Dynamic Models : Understanding Good Walker circulations, Kelvin Waves • Forecast : Bad 2-3 months • Long range forecast impossible : Wrong • Variability driven by weather noise : Wrong • Understanding what triggers ENSO variability: They have no clue • Black Box Syndrome • The butterfly effect and chaos theory

  3. The real drivers of ENSOAnd the real butterfly effect • Lunar Perigee Pulses • Variations on solar wind • Variations in Earth’s magnetic field, Ap, Kp • Random weather noise 5-10% • Electromagnetic influences from the Sun 30-25% • Lunar Perigee Pulses 60-70%

  4. ENSO drivers hidden deep in data Problem: In-data -> Out-data • Non linear relationship • No fix frequencies • Time delays: months to years • Linear regression, frequency analysis, dynamic, statistical models = times series ANN, Markov chain: Doesn’t work • ANN: Works

  5. ANN applied on ENSO 1979 2022 2005 2016 • Asymptotic transfer functions • Hundreds of weights • Input from previous and back 3 years • Iterative process • Red Training: Minimize variance • Green Testing: Minimal variance -> Save weights • Hundreds of transfer functions recursively created • Blue: Recreate ENSO based on saved weights

  6. Ap-index real and forecast

  7. Input neuron data • No ENSO data input in the neurons • The gravitational tidal anomaly vector during lunar perigee – combined Lunar and solar tidal force. • The latitude of that vector • Solar wind data. Temperature, density and speed • Earth’s magnetic field. Kp and Ap Influenced by the Sun • No Ultraviolet lights. No long range data series

  8. Randomness and ensembles • Ensembles of 9 different setups of the neurons • 9 runs with a mean value • Random setups of neurons for each run

  9. ENSO from 1980 to 2022

  10. Zoomed in on 2014 to 2022

  11. Current ENSO prediction • Didn’t miss the recent El Niño, but missed the strength • Current la Niña is now weak, but I expect it to strengthening and peek around Februari next year • Return to high ENSO value with a peek early in 2018 • ENSO high values in the coming years

  12. Test period 2012,14,15

  13. Correlations against derivation of global temperature anomaly

  14. Tidal forcing of ENSO • I looked at tidal forcing at New Moon, Full Moon and Lunar Perigee. • I got good correlations with tidal forcing at Lunar Perigee. • I got best correlation against ENSO derivation in Lunar-solar tidal forcing during Perigee

  15. Moon’s elliptical orbit The elliptical orbit of the Moon, 8,8 year cyclicity

  16. Lunar Node 18.6 year periosity

  17. Tidal force vector • Each time Lunar Perigee happens, ENSO gets a pulse which size and direction is dependent on the size of tidal forcing and its latitude • Lunar Perigee is correlated to the derivate value of ENSO (∆ENSO), while changes in solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field are correlated directly to the value of ENSO • The Moon travels over 14 degrees each day during Perigee. • Lunar Perigee Pulse changes appear chaotic in strength and angle from one pulse to the next

  18. Percent variability • The difference in the Lunar gravitational pull during high tide between Apogee and Perigee is about 60% • During Lunar Perigee the impact from the Sun add an additional variability of about 30% to the gravitational pull

  19. Pacific Ocean Currents

  20. Kelvin Waves

  21. Kelvin Waves and MJO • Perigee happens every 27.5 day • Kelvin Waves are generated in multiples of 27.5 days • MJO area of enhanced convections moves counter clockwise in the tropics. Makes an orbit in 30 to 60 days • When ENSO is positive and MJO is positive in the Kelvin Wave generation area (western pacific), Kelvin Waves are generated during westerly wind bursts

  22. Kelvin Waves • Kelvin Wave creates a tongue of warm water which moves east under the surface along the equator • This water may resurface near South America • This water may resurface west of the Galapagos • This water may dissipate and never reach the surface • MJO variation is probably driven by the same forces that is driving ENSO

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