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Kenji MAEDA Meteorological Research Institute, JMA

Estimation of the Fault Constitutive Parameter Aσ and Stress Accumulation Rate from Seismicity Response to a Large Earthquake. Kenji MAEDA Meteorological Research Institute, JMA. Objectives. Estimate the fault constitutive parameter A σ from the seismicity response to a large earthquake.

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Kenji MAEDA Meteorological Research Institute, JMA

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  1. Estimation of the Fault Constitutive Parameter Aσ and Stress Accumulation Rate from Seismicity Response to a Large Earthquake Kenji MAEDA Meteorological Research Institute, JMA

  2. Objectives • Estimate the fault constitutive parameter Aσ from the seismicity response to a large earthquake. • Estimate the stress accumulation rate from the seismicity response to a large earthquake. • Estimate the stress change from seismicity data.

  3. Seismicity rate after the stress step Dieterich(1994)

  4. Seismicity rate after the stress step Dieterich(1994)

  5. Stress Step & Seismicity Rate Change

  6. When we select the target area to apply the method, we pay attention to • The fault model of a large earthquake is well determined. • The seismicity rate change caused by a stress step is clearly recognized. • The area is far enough from a large earthquake not to be effected by a slip inhomogeneity of the earthquake. • The rate change tend to follow Omori’s formula.

  7. dCFF by the 2003 Tokachi-oki Eq. 0.07~0.16MPa

  8. Seismicity in Hokkaido

  9. Space-Time Distribution of Eqs. D C B A 2003 Tokachi-oki Eq. (M8.0)

  10. Investigated Regions A B D C

  11. Region A (No decluster) Space-Time 2003 Tokachi-oki Eq. (M8.0) Depth-Time Cumulative

  12. Space Space Connection Distance Cluster 1 Connection Time Cluster 2 Time Time Declustering Algorithm

  13. Region A (Decluster 1km,1day) Space-Time 2003 Tokachi-oki Eq. (M8.0) Depth-Time Cumulative

  14. Region C (No Decluster) Space-Time 2003 Tokachi-oki Eq. (M8.0) Depth-Time Cumulative

  15. Region C (Decluster 3km,7day) Space-Time 2003 Tokachi-oki Eq. (M8.0) Depth-Time Cumulative

  16. Fitness of (Modi-)Omori Form.

  17. Obtaining Stress Change from Seismicity Rate Change Dieterich(2000)

  18. Declustered Seismicity Change and Estimated Stress

  19. Teshio Shintoku2 Horizontal Movement (1/1/03~2/28/05） GPS data from GSI

  20. Baseline Length Change Between Teshio and Shintoku2 基線長変化 GPS data from GSI Estimated Stress Change in region A Baseline Length and Estimated Stress

  21. Estimated Values

  22. Estimated Values

  23. Non-declustered Seismicity Estimated Stress Non-declustered Seismicity Change and Estimated Stress

  24. Summary • The fault constitutive parameter Aσ is estimated from the declustered seismicity that is activated by a large earthquake. • The reference stress accumulation rate is also estimated by assuming no large stress change followed the mainshock. • The time variation of stress is estimated from the seismicity rate change by using estimated Aσ and stress accumulation rate .

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