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Forecast and Publication of Indicative LMPs August 13, 2002 Michael Taniwha

Forecast and Publication of Indicative LMPs August 13, 2002 Michael Taniwha Manager, Market Administration mtaniwha@iso-ne.com. Introduction. Purpose Assumptions Data inputs Process diagram Timeline Published results Questions. Purpose.

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Forecast and Publication of Indicative LMPs August 13, 2002 Michael Taniwha

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  1. Forecast and Publication of Indicative LMPs August 13, 2002 Michael Taniwha Manager, Market Administration mtaniwha@iso-ne.com

  2. Introduction • Purpose • Assumptions • Data inputs • Process diagram • Timeline • Published results • Questions

  3. Purpose To provide Market Participants with forecast indicative real-time locational marginal prices (LMPs) prior to SMD implementation.

  4. Assumptions • Today's market behavior is not a certainty of tomorrows market behavior • look at Wall Street! • LMPs will be indicative forecast of real-time not day-ahead LMPs • day-ahead is based on price sensitive demand and decrement (virtual) bids • No ex-post correction for real time conditions

  5. Overview of process • Calculation of forecast hourly indicative LMPs using day-ahead market (DAM) software • Data inputs from present NEPOOL market and reliability forecasting are used as de-facto real time inputs • Data inputs are for the next day (forecast or scheduled)

  6. Data inputs • Network model • Scheduled transmission outages • Generic transmission constraints • interface constraints both internal and external • including RMR requirements • Reserve requirements • Forecast external transactions

  7. Data inputs cont... • 100% of load forecast • Load is distributed in the SPD model using load distribution factors • based on rolling 7 day average • Generator offers based on hour ending 15:00 offers from current market • reflects peak hour offer data

  8. Process flow diagram

  9. Timeline • September until SMD implementation • Publish first ‘batch’ of LMPs on September 9 - weekly thereafter • each batch will include as many days of the previous week as possible • goal is to increase the number of days published each week

  10. Published results • CSV file for each day with hourly LMPs for Hub, Zones, and Pnodes • http://www.iso-ne.com/cmsmss/Standard_Market_Design/Interim_LMP_Early_LMP/ • Example of CSV file

  11. Graphical example of LMPs

  12. Other market initiatives underway • Development of nodal system diagram underway • All transmission lines and PNodes will be identified • Looking to provide more value added information • market reports • branch constraint information

  13. Thank You

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