At the 8th Annual Captive Conference in Nevada, industry leaders discussed the critical aspect of reinsurance costs, emphasizing that the consequences of lacking coverage can be far more detrimental than the reinsurance itself. The conference explored various price drivers and supply factors, including high reinsurer capital and the impact of severe weather events like hurricanes. Key insights focused on the evolution of investor interest in catastrophe bonds and the implications of changing cat models on risk assessment. Understanding these dynamics is essential for assessing financial stability and mitigating risks in the insurance market.
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Cost of Reinsurance • The cost of reinsurance is not nearly as great as the cost of not having it when disaster strikes • Like the cost of umbrellas, it is valued less when it’s calm and more when it storms..….How’s the weather?
Supply Factors • High reinsurer capital • Heavy hurricane/typhoon season insured losses • Unattractive investment opportunities • Growing investor interest in catastrophe bonds or similar collateralized facilities
Outstanding Catastrophe Bonds Growing utilization by larger insurer and Acceptance by capital markets as a viable asset class
Supply Factors • High reinsurer capital • Heavy hurricane/typhoon season insured losses • Unattractive investment opportunities • Growing investor interest in catastrophe bonds or similar collateralized facilities • Continued favorable casualty reserve development
Supply Factors • High reinsurer capital • Heavy hurricane/typhoon season insured losses • Unattractive investment opportunities • Growing investor interest in catastrophe bonds or similar collateralized facilities • Continued favorable casualty reserve development • Increasing size of U.S. states‘ wind pools
Supply Factors • High reinsurer capital • Heavy hurricane/typhoon season insured losses • Unattractive investment opportunities Growing investor interest in catastrophe bonds or similar collateralized facilities • Continued favorable casualty reserve development • Increasing size of U.S. states‘ wind pools • Declining Florida homeowners insurance market
Supply Factors • High reinsurer capital • Heavy hurricane/typhoon season insured losses • Unattractive investment opportunities Growing investor interest in catastrophe bonds or similar collateralized facilities • Continued favorable casualty reserve development • Increasing size of U.S. states‘ wind pools • Declining Florida homeowners insurance market • Heavily reinsured losses in New Zealand and Australia
Supply Factors • High reinsurer capital • Heavy hurricane/typhoon season insured losses • Unattractive investment opportunities Growing investor interest in catastrophe bonds or similar collateralized facilities • Continued favorable casualty reserve development • Increasing size of U.S. states‘ wind pools • Declining Florida homeowners insurance market • Heavily reinsured losses in New Zealand and Australia • Uncertainty related to new Cat Models
Changes is Cat Modeling • RMS Released RMS v11 in February 2011 • Increased calculated PMLs substantially • changes to their 1% probable maximum loss (PML) estimates ranging from –4% to 279% • Average annual loss (AAL) estimate changes from –4% to 260%. • Results varied based on geography and exposure type
Supply Factors • High reinsurer capital • Heavy hurricane/typhoon season insured losses • Unattractive investment opportunities Growing investor interest in catastrophe bonds or similar collateralized facilities • Continued favorable casualty reserve development • Increasing size of U.S. states‘ wind pools • Declining Florida homeowners insurance market • Heavily reinsured losses in New Zealand and Australia • Uncertainty related to new Cat Models • Sovereign Debt Related Issues
Sovereign Debt • The default of Spain and Italy could trigger the break-up of the Euro • Defaults on sovereign debt issued by Portugal, Ireland and Greece could prompt write-downs of around EUR 25bn, or 4% of European insurers' capital • Similar defaults of Spanish and Italian sovereign debt would be much worse (EUR 143bn, or 24% of capital)
Demand Factors • Strong insurer capital • Pricing uncertainty • Sluggish insurance demand growth in difficult economic environment
US Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth (%) Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 6/11; Insurance Information Institute.
Global NonlifePremium Growth: 1980-2009 Source: Swiss Re, sigma, No. 2/2010. 42 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C
Demand Factors • Strong insurer capital • Pricing uncertainty • Sluggish demand growth for insurance in difficult economic environment • Continued favorable development on casualty insurance
Demand Factors • Strong insurer capital • Pricing uncertainty • Sluggish demand growth for insurance in difficult economic environment • Continued favorable development on casualty insurance • Very competitive insurance landscape in nearly all markets
Change in Commercial Rate Renewalsby Account Size Market has Been Soft for 7 years and Remains Soft as Capital Hits Record Levels Percentage Change (%) Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute.
Cumulative Qtrly. Commercial Rate Changes 1999:Q4 = 100 Pricing today is where is was in Q3:2000 (pre-9/11) Downward pricing pressure is most pronounced for larger risks Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute.