Earthquake Risk Reduction Concepts & Terminology

1. Earthquake Risk Reduction Concepts & Terminology Session 1World Bank InstituteCharles SCAWTHORN Junji KIYONO Kyoto University Earthquake Risk Reduction 1 1

2. Earthquakes Cause Death and Destruction • EarthquakeKilled • 2005 South Asia 80,000 • 2004Indian Ocean Tsunami283,000 • 2003Bam, Iran31,000 • 1988Spitak, Armenia25,000 • 2001Gujarat, India20,000 • 1999Izmit-Duzce, Turkey17,000 • 1993Latur-Killari, India9,700 • 1995 Kobe, Japan6,600 • 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan2,400 • 1990 Philippines (N Luzon) 1,620 • 1976 Philippines (Mindanao) 8,000 Earthquake Risk Reduction 2 2

3. Key Words Plate Tectonics, Subduction, Fault (i.e. Earthquake Fault), Seismotectonics, Magnitude, Intensity, Vulnerability, Risk Management Earthquake Risk Reduction

4. Plate Tectonics and Earthquakes - 1 Earthquake Risk Reduction

5. Plate Tectonics and Earthquakes - 2 Earthquake Risk Reduction

6. Interslab EQs Crustal EQs Subduction zone Intraslab EQs Lithosphere Hot Spot Seismogenesis Earthquake Risk Reduction

7. shaking landslide tsunami faulting liquefaction fire faulting Agents of Damage -1 Earthquake Risk Reduction

8. Measuring Earthquakes • Earthquakes are measured by instruments termed Seismometers, which measure how the ground moves. • Data from several measurements can be used to ‘triangulate’ where the earthquake began to release energy – the corresponding point on the earth’s surface is called the epicenter’ • The more the ground moves, the greater the energy release. The total energy released by an earthquake is estimated from several instruments, and used to calculate the “magnitude”, or overall size, of an earthquake – the most common magnitude scale is Mw, or ‘moment’magnitude scale. • Mw 6 earthquakes are damaging and some buildings may collapse; Mw 7 are very damaging, and many buildings may collapse;Mw 8 and larger are extremely damaging, and very many buildings may collapse. In the same way, landslides, liquefaction and other agents of damage are worse, the larger the magnitude. Earthquake Risk Reduction

9. Seismic Intensity and Hazard • While magnitude measures the overall size of an earthquake, the earthquake’s effects (or intensity) vary from point to point. In general, the closer to the epicenter, the stronger the intensity. • Intensity is measured using many scales – including the PHIVOLCS Scale (PEIS), Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI), MSK, European Macroseismic (EMS), and Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) scales.The PEIS varies from 0 to 10, while the MMI, MSK and EMS are all similar and vary from 0 to 12. • Generally, on the MMI, MSK and/or EMS scales: • 6 is the start of damage; • 8 is significant damage with some collapsed buildings; • 10 is very serious damage, with perhaps many collapsedbuildings • 12 is total damage • Seismic hazard refers to the likelihood of occurrence of earthquake effects, and is measured in the probability of intensity (or more technical measures) during a period, such as the next 100 years. Earthquake Risk Reduction

10. PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale (abbrev) Earthquake Risk Reduction

11. MMI Scale I. People do not feel any Earth movement. II. A few people might notice movement if they are at rest and/or on the upper floors of tall buildings. III. Many people indoors feel movement. Hanging objects swing back and forth. People outdoors might not realize that an earthquake is occurring. IV. Most people indoors feel movement. Hanging objects swing. Dishes, windows, and doors rattle. The earthquake feels like a heavy truck hitting the walls. A few people outdoors may feel movement. Parked cars rock. V. Almost everyone feels movement. Sleeping people are awakened. Doors swing open or close. Dishes are broken. Pictures on the wall move. Small objects move or are turned over. Trees might shake. Liquids might spill out of open containers. VI. Everyone feels movement. People have trouble walking. Objects fall from shelves. Pictures fall off walls. Furniture moves. Plaster in walls might crack. Trees and bushes shake. Damage is slight in poorly built buildings. No structural damage. VII. People have difficulty standing. Drivers feel their cars shaking. Some furniture breaks. Loose bricks fall from buildings. Damage is slight to moderate in well-built buildings; considerable in poorly built buildings. VIII. Drivers have trouble steering. Houses that are not bolted down might shift on their foundations. Tall structures such as towers and chimneys might twist and fall. Well-built buildings suffer slight damage. Poorly built structures suffer severe damage. Tree branches break. Hillsides might crack if the ground is wet. Water levels in wells might change. IX. Well-built buildings suffer considerable damage. Houses that are not bolted down move off their foundations. Some underground pipes are broken. The ground cracks. Reservoirs suffer serious damage. X. Most buildings and their foundations are destroyed. Some bridges are destroyed. Dams are seriously damaged. Large landslides occur. Water is thrown on the banks of canals, rivers, lakes. The ground cracks in large areas. Railroad tracks are bent slightly. XI. Most buildings collapse. Some bridges are destroyed. Large cracks appear in the ground. Underground pipelines are destroyed. Railroad tracks are badly bent. XII. Almost everything is destroyed. Objects are thrown into the air. The ground moves in waves or ripples. Large amounts of rock may move Earthquake Risk Reduction

12. Seismic Vulnerability - 1 Earthquake Risk Reduction

13. Seismic Vulnerability - 2 • Seismic Vulnerability is the degree of damage or loss caused by a given level of seismic intensity. • Seismic vulnerability depends on the materials, age, condition and structural layout of a building or other structure. • Weak brittle materials, such as adobe, unreinforced masonry, and older reinforced concrete buildings, are very likely to be damaged in an earthquake– they have high vulnerability. • Steel, wood and newer reinforced concrete buildings are less likely to be damaged in an earthquake – they have low vulnerability. Earthquake Risk Reduction

14. Two approaches: Detailed engineering model  F = [K] X Sa % damage Statistical approach MMI Seismic Vulnerability - 3 Earthquake Risk Reduction

15. Seismic Vulnerability-3 Earthquake Risk Reduction

16. Earthquake Effects – faulting, shaking intensity, liquefaction, tsunami… Built Environment – buildings, industry, infrastructure… Human Environment – People, organizations, institutions, cultural heritage, finances… Loss – human injury, cost or repairs, business interruption, social disruption… Earthquake Risk • Assets may be people, property, profits, or other things of value. • Loss is the reduction in value of an asset due to damage. Loss is measured in many ways, such as the ratio of fatalities to total population, repair cost ratio, etc. • Risk is the uncertainty of loss. • Risk or Loss estimation is the quantification of the earthquake loss, and is a basic first step in managing earthquake risk. Earthquake Risk Reduction

17. Earthquake Risk Reduction • Earthquake damage and loss can be reduced or mitigated in a number of ways. • Mitigation is possible at each step of the earthquake loss process. • Breaking the chain of the causation of earthquake damage anywhere reduces or eliminate the loss. • The earlier in the process the chain is broken, the more effective is the mitigation. Earthquake Risk Reduction

18. Initial Assessment of the Problem Analyse the Earthquake Risk (Identify/Analyze/Evaluate/Treat) Maintain (Review and Monitor) Develop the Mitigation Program Implement the Mitigation Program Earthquake Risk Reduction Program Session 2 Session 3 Earthquake Risk Reduction

19. Earthquake Risk Reduction • The goal of Earthquake Risk Reduction is not to find a solution,but rather to find the best solution. “best” implies decision-making. • Decision-making consists of two basic steps; • Estimate the risk, and • Examine mitigation alternatives. • Estimating the risk involves defining the problem, quantifying the current risk (ie, as-is), and determining if further action is needed. • Examining mitigation alternatives requires selecting the basis for analysis, identifying alternatives, screening alternatives, and choosing a decision method. • The last step in Earthquake Risk Reduction is implementing the alternatives. An earthquake risk management program consistsof the following steps; funding, program management, implementing the plan, risk transfer and an emergency plan. Earthquake Risk Reduction