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Coastal TT

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Coastal TT

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  1. Coastal TT Pierre De Mey, LEGOS Villy Kourafalou, U. Miami

  2. Oregon CTZ SST 24 Aug 2003 (OSU) (CSIRO) Coastal ocean specifics • Focus: shelf break exchanges, shelf dynamics, coastal current & associated (sub-)mesoscale • Influence of coastal ocean processes felt far beyond shelf break, overlaps & interacts with open ocean dynamics • Continuous spectrum of LF and HF processes with specific physics: free surface, tides, 3D processes, etc.

  3. Outline • Previous activities (2006-2008) • Where do we go from here? • Towards ToRs • ICODAE Core Science examples and added value for GOV • ICODAE first steps

  4. Previous activities (2006-2008) -- 1 • Explicit interface with Coastal and Shelf Seas came in late in GODAE schedule • Assess & illustrate value of GODAE results for coastal and shelf seas models and forecasting systems • Build a community • Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group • Permit a first census of national, operational-track CSS activities using GODAE products • Members: 1 US, 1 CAN, 2 EU, 1 JP, 1 CN, 1 AUS • 40 systems on web site • Touch wider community • Community forum events • Coastal session at the 2006 BeijingGODAE Symposium “Ocean Data Assimilation and Prediction in Asia-Oceania” (16 abstracts) • 2007 Liverpool Workshop "Assessing the value of GODAE products in coastal and shelf seas” (36 abstracts) • Special session at 2008 Fall AGU meeting, San Francisco“Advances in the Prediction Capabilities of Interdisciplinary Nested Models in Coastal and Shelf Seas” (1 oral + 2 poster sessions, ~40 abstracts) • Poster sessions at 2008 GODAE Final Symposium in Nice.

  5. Previous activities (2006-2008) -- 2 • Publications • Web pages on GODAE site: • White Paper (2nd ed., Oct 2007): “Towards the assessment and demonstration of the value of GODAE results for coastal and shelf seas models and forecasting systems” • An attempt at a “state-of-the-art” summary (as of Oct. 2007) • Available on web site • OcDyn special issue (out, Feb 2009): “Assessing the value of GODAE products in coastal and shelf seas” • 8 papers from Liverpool workshop results • Good set of results on downscaling from GODAE products • Final Symposium summary paper in OcMag (accepted, May 2009): “Applications in coastal modelling and forecasting” • Added value of downscaling from GODAE systems, with examples not shown in OcDyn • Elements influencing predictability w/examples, initialization, data assimilation

  6. 40 projects/systems/groups Using b.c.s from GODAE core systems Varied in objectives and methods Geographically clustered Africa: 1 Australia: 2 China Seas: 2 Japan Seas: 4 Indian Ocean: 1 North Pacific: 1 North America West Coast: 4 Gulf of Mexico: 4 North America East Coast: 2 Arctic and Nordic Seas: 3 Norwegian, Baltic, and North Seas: 7 Northeast Atlantic: 7 Mediterranean: 5 GODAE CSS Community P19 P18 P20 P21-22 P23-24-25-26 P29-37 P27 P6 P40 P16 P28-31-38 P12 P7 P17 P30-39 P32-33-34-35-39 P9-10-11 P8 P10-13-14-15 P4 P36 P31 P5 P3 P2 P1

  7. GODAE CSS Community P19 P18 P20 P21-22 P23-24-25-26 P29-37 P27 P6 P40 P16 P28-31-38 P12 P7 P17 P30-39 P32-33-34-35-39 P9-10-11 P8 P10-13-14-15 P4 P36 P31 P5 P3 P2 P1 • 40 projects/systems/groups • Using b.c.s from GODAE core systems • Varied in objectives and methods • Geographically clustered • Africa: 1 • Australia: 2 • China Seas: 2 • Japan Seas: 3 • Indian Ocean: 1 • North Pacific: 1 • North America West Coast: 4 • Gulf of Mexico: 4 • North America East Coast: 2 • Arctic and Nordic Seas: 3 • Norwegian, Baltic, and North Seas: 7 • Northeast Atlantic: 7 • Mediterranean: 5

  8. CSS Community: sharing experience OcDynYYYYY(Y)Y P40 Kyushu U./Fisheries InstituteNaoki HiroseJPY

  9. CSSWG White Paper contents • 1 Rationale • 2 Coastal and shelf seas downscaling within GODAE • Uses of coastal models • Links between large-scale and coastal models • Ongoing/planned CSS downscaling projects linked to GODAE • 3 Issues and requirements related to downscaling • Critical issues and requirements • Open issues • 4 Proposed approach • Coastal workshop(s), links with international activities, etc. • Appendices • CSSWG and contributors to PP • Details of CSS projects • Details of large-scale GODAE data producers: models, products, data serving strategy • The MERSEA and ECOOP European projects - Access to adequate large-scale GODAE simulations - Jump in ocean physics and in forcing functions - Initialization - Tides and barotropic dynamics - How do we measure goodness and benefit in CSS models? - Data assimilation in CSS models - Two-way coupling - Unstructured grid modelling

  10. Oct. 2007 Liverpool workshop OcDyn Special CSSWG issue (February 2009) Special Issue editors: De Mey, Proctor, Halliwell, Powell • De Mey & Proctor, Editorial • Kourafalou et al., “Evaluation of GODAE boundary condition effects in South Florida nested simulations” • Halliwell et al., “Impact of GODAE products on nested HYCOM simulations of the West Florida Shelf” • Powell & Moore, “Estimating the Analysis Error from 4DVAR Data Assimilation of GODAE products” • Proctor et al., “The influence of initial and open boundary conditions on POLCOMS in the North East Atlantic” • Alvera-Azcarate et al., “A nested model of the Cariaco Basin (Venezuela): description of the basin's interior hydrography and interactions with the open ocean” • Counillon & Bertino, “High resolution ensemble forecasting for the Gulf of Mexico eddies and fronts” • De Mey et al., “Assessment of observational networks with the Representer Matrix Spectra Method…” • Herzfeld, “Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models”

  11. Where do we go from here?

  12. Prospective from last IGST (Washington, D.C., June 2008) Could envisage transition from present situation: two types of actions • Keep/develop forums to discuss cross-cutting science issues (some old, some new) and promote networking btw. CSS groups & systems • Downscaling-related (modelling, observing system e.g. SWOT, usability of large-scale products, HR bathymetry) • Interdisciplinary (circulation, tides, probably ecosystem) • WP issues: DA (e.g. w/tides), ensembles, 2-way nesting, upscaling, unstructured grids, added-value: eddy-resolving, atmospheric forcing issues, HF, tidal mixing, … • Metrics for assessment and intercomparison • Opportunities of linking|hosting: project of IOC wg on Marine Modelling (science issues), JCOMM expert team (e.g. intercomparison standards of CSS systems), MyOcean science board, GCOS… • See CLIVAR panels structuring • Foster establishment of pilot projects in physically-meaningful regional ocean domains • Help bring focus and weight to science discussions • Define geographically-meaningful metrics and intercomparison • Take final users demand into account and relay to supplying groups • A way to include more systems, while remaining manageable • Contribution of MyOcean MFCs, links w/JCOMM regional services?

  13. Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas Task Team (“Coastal TT”) Defining TT mission: work towards the provision of a sound scientific basis for sustainable multidisciplinary downscaling and forecasting activities in the world coastal oceans Time frame: 4 years (2013) Main actions: • Continue co-sponsoring forums (AGU, EGU) to discuss cross-cutting science issues (downscaling, predictability, interdisciplinary) • Remain visible to community of coastal modellers • Promote limited-time Pilot Projects (PPs) • CSS forecasting largely supported at national level • Operational implementation not always stabilized at institute/agency level • Focus on coastal forecasting science (not on coastal forecasting coordination) • Fewer groups but more tightly integrated than former WG • In several world coastal regions • Using GOV products • Integrated in terms of science and objectives -> next slide • Contribute to the training of young scientists

  14. ICODAE - 1 • ICODAE: International Coastal Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment • A label for Pilot Projects (or existing projects) adhering to the ToRs • Types of activities: (developed in ToRs) • Conduct core science investigations related to the target processes (-> Villy) • e.g. submesoscale, shelf dynamics, biology, validation, … • Interface with (some) end users and conduct application-targeted science investigations related to the target applications • e.g. forecasting, atmosphere interaction, biology (upper trophic levels), ... • Coordinate activities and results within TT, relate with GOV & operational activities • All of the above open to coordination, in particular tools: metrics, downscaling, assimilation, downscaling error estimates (if available from large-scale systems) • Neville Smith: “I think the challenge is to find those elements that are shared and would encourage this nascent coastal GODAE community to work together. I think one element is the development of a discipline for evaluating the value of models, and the level of predictability (growth of errors). If this group could become the developer of standards, I think it would be a great contribution.” • Plan (inter-regional) intercomparison, array design studies • Feedback onto GOV • Contribute to training and forums related to coastal forecasting • Summer school on coastal forecasting ca. 2012 • PP representatives members of Coastal TT

  15. ICODAE - 2 • Focus regions for PPs: (non-limitative list) (readiness) • Gulf of Mexico • US West Coast • North-East Atlantic (NWS/IBI/National) • Mediterranean • Japan seas • Other australian/australasian region? • …?

  16. Coastal ocean forecasting applicationsUseful forecast lead times -- sorted by variable • Sea Level: • Storm surges -- O(1day) • Surface Currents (SC), Nearshore Currents (NC), Flags: • Maritime safety (SC) -- search&rescue : hours • Oil industry (platform maintenance, oil spills) (SC) -- hours to days • Nuclear industry (radionuclide spills) (SC) -- days • Ship routing, sail races (SC) -- days • Maritime safety (SC,sea ice detection flag) -- icebergs: days to weeks • Sediment transport (beaches) (NC) -- days to weeks • Temperature (T), Density (DENS) & Vorticity (VORT): • Response of surface layer to HF wind/pressure, tropical cyclones, hurricanes (T,SC) -- 1day to several days • Coastal upwellings -- days • Military (sonar prediction) (DENS,VORT) -- O(1week) • Biophysical parameters (primary production, fisheries, aquaculture, swimming water quality, sewage spills) (DENS,VORT) -- days to weeks (requires small-scale vorticity & currents)

  17. Ecological modelling of nutrients and phytoplankton(PREVIMER, France)

  18. Observation-related items & open questions • Coastal TT missions related to in situ observing systems? • “GOOS Regional Alliances” • MOON, ROOS (e.g. IBIROOS), OOI, tide gauge networks, ... • Stay aware of regional databases & QC procedures -- through PPs • Promote interoperability & free access • How can we provide support/guidelines? • Coastal TT missions related to space observing systems? • How can we provide support/guidelines to SWOT, OST, & other space missions of interest for coastal oceanography (new or to be sustained)? • COSPAR in Bremen in 2010? Session A21 -- “... space-borne observations, and their applications in the Coastal Zone (currents, algal blooms, freshwater inflow)…”

  19. Core Science and added value for GOV • Predictability COSS downscaling/forecasting as added value to GOV (coastal physics, land-sea interactions, strait dynamics, wetting/drying, tides, local data…) multi-scale modeling and observations (time, space) data assimilation issues / array design interdisciplinary (particle dynamics, biophysical modeling – low/high trophic, from nutrient transport to fisheries) • Coastal to offshore interactions Shelf break processes, inter-basin exchanges, flows through passages, connectivity Upscaling / improvement of predictability of the outer models (2-way nesting, synthetic observations) • Specific applications (emerging) Extreme events (hurricanes…) Climate change (the current climate models cannot properly address impacts on coastal sea level etc.)

  20. OS52B - Advances in prediction capabilities of interdisciplinary nested models in coastal and shelf seas II • (Topic 1) "Downscaling & adding value to large-scale products" • Ocean Prediction via downscaling of large-scale ocean models (Hogan et al., invited) • Downscaling Global Model for Continental Shelf off SE Australia (Roughan et al.) • High-resolution oc/atm modeling of the Florida Big Bend region (Morey et al.) • (Topic 2) "Assimilation in coastal and shelf seas systems" • Stochastic methodologies to assess coastal observational networks (Le Hénaff et al.) • Discussion: Enhancing predictability in the coastal ocean + open topics • (Topic 3) "Validation of coastal ocean models" • Interdisciplinary modeling of the California Current System (Edwards et al., invited) • Coastal Observation and a Forecasting System for German Bight (Stanev & Colijn) • Impact of GODAE i.c.s on Coastal Response to Hurricanes (Halliwell et al.) • (Topic 4) "Utility of coastal models" • Biophysical Larval Tracking System (Paris et al., invited) • Sensitivity of Irish Sea Temperature to Inherent Optical Properties (Polton et al.)

  21. Positive impact of assimilation of gliders off Monterey Bay (NRL) ALT DA enhances slope current (LEGOS/ESEOO) Assimilation in coastal ocean systems

  22. ESEOAT Coastal buoy hourly surface currents (P30, ESEOO) Climatological and cruise-data water mass verification (P28, MERCATOR) Data-based validation of coastal-ocean systems Free DA (NCODA) Influence of downscaling and DA at South Florida outer shelf mooring site during a period of intense Gulf Stream eddy activity (P14, RSMAS)

  23. Altimetry products (P1, NERSC/U.Capetown) Local cruise data (P11, UCSC) Data-based validation of coastal-ocean systems

  24. Cherbourg SST Added value: tides • 1/12° Northeast Atlantic NEMO configuration (target: 1/36° in MyOcean GMES project) • Downscaled from MERCATOR GODAE product with tides Modis No tide July 2004 tidal mixing fronts: impact on SST (Chanut, MERCATOR)

  25. Added value: tides Mouton SHOM) MERCATOR Observations: 13 July 2004

  26. Coastal to offshore interactions Example: Eddy activity and fronts in the Gulf of Mexico GoM-HYCOM 1/25 deg (NRL) Daata Assimilative (NCODA)

  27. Added Value to GODAE products SOFLA-HYCOM 1/25 deg Free running NA-HYCOM 1/12 deg (GODAE) Daata Assimilative (OI)

  28. Implications on large scale predictability: influence of eddies on Gulf Stream meandering GoM-HYCOM Apr 21 2004 FKEYS-HYCOM Apr 21 2004 Apr 21 2004 SeaWiFS data May 24, 2004 (provided by Chuanmin Hu, USF)

  29. Synergy of high resolution observations and high resolution modeling MODEL (sub-domain) Jan 19 2005 00Z Jan 20 2005 00Z Jan 21 2005 00Z WERA data (N.Shay, UM) • High resolution coastal modeling: • resollve submesoscale features • provide 3-D fields to analyze surface currents from high frequency radar (WERA)

  30. Implications on connectivity and fisheries Relative influence of physical-biological interactions on larval dispersal 38% 2% 12% 28% PLD 30 d 27% 15% 0.2% 13% • Ontogenetic vertical migration behavior • (damselfish Stegastes partitus) • increased overall recruitment • changes in dispersal direction • changes in larval linkages OVM Passive (Paris et al. 2007)

  31. Hurricane prediction: regional GoM-HYCOM with HWIND (NOAA-AOML) G. Halliwell (NOAA)

  32. ICODAE Example: Partnership for International Research and Education International Coastal Data Assimilation Experiment in the Caribbean and Mediterranean Seas (pre-proposal to NSF) • Objectives: • combine biophysical in-situ and satellite observations, models and data assimilation techniques suitable for the dynamical downscaling of global oceanographic fields to the shelf/coastal regions toward forecasting and the design of optimal observing systems • resolve time and spatial scales that are important for the cross-marginal and inter-basin exchange of waters, larvae and nutrients that are not currently provided by large (global) scale products • embrace an interdisciplinary and international approach to research, education and outreach that will have a long lasting impact on coastal science, management and policy. RESEARCH GOAL: development and skill assessment of interdisciplinary, data assimilative coastal and regional numerical models integrated with coastal observing systems and nested within global models to achieve dynamic downscaling of both models and observations from the global to the coastal scale EDUCATIONAL GOAL: prepare tomorrow’s scientists by providing direct research experience and interdisciplinary training at international academic and industry science centers of excellence and industry

  33. PIRE-ICODAE US Partners University of Miami (lead Institute) – V. Kourafalou (lead PI) Co-PIs and Senior Personnel: (A) observations (in-situ): R. Cowen, B. Haus, N. Shay (B) observations (satellite): H. Graber (Director, Center for SE Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing), P. Minnett (C) modeling: C. Paris, J. Olascoaga, A. Reniers (D) data assimilation: A. Srinivasan, A. Griffa (E) education assessment: A. Bessell (Education department), S. Sponaugle (NSF/Advance SEEDS: Scientists and Engineers Expanding Diversity& Success) (F) applications: J. Ault (fisheries), J. McManus (reef ecology), L. McManus (policy and management) (G) international collaboration: P. Ortner (Director, CIMAS Coop. Inst. Mar. Atm. Science, CaraCOOS member) Industry Partner: M. Roffer, Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service Inc. (ROFFS/Caribbean & Mediterranean) INFORMATION MANAGEMENT: Center for Computational Science (N. Tsinoremas, Director) PROJECT OVERSIGHT: International Steering Committee, Internal Steering Committee and External Advisory Board RECRUITMENT, ORIENTATION AND OUTREACH: RSMAS Communications (B. Gonzalez, Director) Florida State University (PI: E. Chassignet):coupled ocean-atm. and biophysical modeling University of South Florida (PI: R. Weisberg): real time observations and modeling University of the U.S. Virgin Islands (PI: N. Idrisi): Caribbean data and real time modeling University of Puerto Rico (PI: J. Corredor): Caribbean data and real time modeling U.S. Institutes/Affiliates: NOAA-AOML (G. Halliwell): Observing System Simulation Experiments (user) NOAA-Southeast Fisheries (J. Lamkin): fisheries research (user) MOTE laboratory (R. Hueter): fisheries research (user) National Marine Sanctuaries (B. Keller): ecosystem management (user) NRL-MRY (J. Cummings): High resolution atmospheric data sets (provider) NRL-SSC (P. Hogan): Global model archives and downscaling (provider) Nature Conservancy (P. Kramer): environmental research (user)

  34. PIRE-ICODAE International Partners Belgium: P1, Univ. of Liege, A. Barth (D) Brazil: P2, U. of Sao Paulo, E. Campos (A,C), P3, U. of Bahia, R. Silva(C), NSF/PIRE on Amazon France: P4,LEGOS (Laboratoire d'Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales), P. de Mey (D); P5, CNRS-LA (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), C. Estournel (C); P6, SHOM (Service Hydrographique et Oceanographique de la Marine), Y. Morel (C) Greece: P7, HCMR (Hellenic Center for Marine Research), K. Nittis, MedGOOS chair (A, D, F) Italy: P8*, NURC (NATO Undersea Research Center), M. Rixen (B,C,D); P9, INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia), P. Oddo (C,D); P10,OGS (Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale), P. Poulain (A); P11, U. of Bologna, N. Pinardi (C, D); P12*, CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change), S. Dobricic (C, D); P13, CNR (Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche), S. Vignudelli, L. Santoleri (B, C, D) Mexico: P14, CINVESTAV (Centro de Investigación Estudios Avanzados/Instituto Politécnico Nacional), D. Aldana (A,F) Norway: P15*, NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center), L. Bertino (D) Spain: P16, IMEDEA (Instituto Mediterráneo Estudios Avanzados/U. Balearic Islands), J. Tintore (A, F) Industry Foreign Affiliate Partner: P17, Delft Hydraulics/ DELTARES, Netherlands (J. Van Gils) (C, F) Affilation with International Programs: GODAE/OceanView (GOV), GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System), GEO/CZCP (Group on Earth Observations/Coastal Zone Community of Practice), LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone), HYCOM Consortium for Data Assimilative Modeling, CaraCOOS (Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System), MOON (Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network), European Commission Education and Training ERASMUS MUNDUS Program (UM is a member)

  35. Enhancing predictability in coastal-ocean systems • Strategy wrt. downscaling & initialization? • Dynamical downscaling == nesting (1- or 2-way) + grid refinement approaches • Estimation-based downscaling: use larger-scale estimates as bits of information, optionally within (weak) constraints (e.g. gravity-wave transients) • Strategy wrt. atmospheric forcing & products? • Forecast range, space/time effective resolution, sensitivity to coastal orography • Coupled ocean/atmosphere coastal effects • Multiscale modelling • Which uses for: two-way nesting, unstructured-grid modelling? • Data assimilation strategy? • Complex error subspace: non-stationary, non-homogeneous, non-Gaussian, open to lateral & atmospheric error forcing • Are “advanced” methods preferable (4D-var, EnKF, full SEEK) ? • Interest of augmented state vector (physical vars + surface atm + others) ? • Array design • Rich spectrum of available data types (HF radars, tide gauges, coastal observatories, gliders, gravity) • Detect model state errors • Control model state errors via DA • Objectively test models (“are pdfs compatible?”)

  36. COSST outlook: Y1 steps • Finish drafting ToRs – summer • 1-2 PPs by end of year would be a good start! • possibly ICODAE/PIRE (GoM, Med) – or other… • Importance of intercomparison • Contact groups & populate TT • PP representatives (evolving) • Experts (key issues, invite papers to forums) • Need national representatives as in CSSWG? • Coordinate w/other TTs - enhance GOV socioeconomic component • Organize special sessions as forums • 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences meeting, Portland, Oregon, USA -- session proposal pending • Session proposal for 2011 EGU

  37. Thank you.