General context of transit elections

1. Staying Positive: Responding to Transit Critics Managing the Message in a Transit Election EnvironmentPeter J. Haas, Ph.D.

2. General context of transit elections • The public generally wants transit improvements • Many campaigns have little or organized, funded opposition • Most campaigns succeed (despite some high-profile losses). • Opposition arguments tend to be predictable and repetitive • Implication: manage message with other factors in mind (and not in isolation)

3. Key characteristics of a transit election environment • Simultaneous interplay of a “cloud” of possibly critical factors • The media message/narrative (and that of opponents) may be important, but may also be noise • Other factors include: perceived need for project; positive transit system image; fundraising; use of experienced consultant; type of election, existence of organized opposition. • It is likely that managing the message interacts with some or all of these factors • Implication: manage message being mindful of other factors

4. Possible configuration of mitigating factors

5. Typically important examples

6. Managing Agency/System Perception • Research suggests that poor public perceptions of the efficiency or quality of public transit can affect outcomes • If there are known issues, address them publically and systemically prior to announcing campaign • Emphasize positive outcomes, reports, etc. • Educate on positives of system (independent of campaign) • Avoid overt conflict over the transportation proposal (routes, modes, etc.) • Create a “Blue Ribbon” or citizen’s review panel with oversight function

7. Managing Organized Opposition • Research suggests an organized opposition is more likely to defeat a transit initiative; however: many elections lack organized opposition • If no organized opposition exists, be careful of cultivating grassroots opposition by legitimizing marginal opponents; focus on positives • If opposition is organized, anticipate message, which tends to be repetitive; prepare counter arguments • Create an on-line “War Room” site that addresses ad hoc arguments • If opposition uses hired guns, use that against them • Work with existing grass roots supporter groups and try avoid alienating key constituents • Create a “Blue Ribbon” or citizen’s review panel with oversight function

8. Managing different types of election • Research suggests that large turnout, “high-stimulus” elections are more likely to be successful • Off-year and “special elections” may be more difficult • Given a high-turnout election: can dovetail with existing efforts to maximize turnout, must focus on raising awareness of initiative and targeting likely voters • Given a low-turnout election: can focus effort on turning-out likely voters, avoid legitimizing opposition

9. Managing use of multiple media • Research suggests that successful campaigns use a strategic combination of mass media (Radio/TV/newspaper) and Direct Mail that is focused on key voting groups. • Key is identify what sticks – what resonates – and what’s relevant to voters (and specific types of voters) • Avoid overspending on mass media campaigns that fail to address interests and concerns of specific voters • Identify likely voters, swing voters, tailor message to specific neighborhoods with direct mail • Social media…

10. …and social media • Social media: can be used to quickly determine which issues resonate with which kinds of voters (can target groups) • Transparent: can quickly determine which kinds of messages are gaining traction – can also gain traction with conventional media • Enablesa means of becoming source of information, independent of media • Must have established following and/or access to ancillary groups (bicycle coalition, environmental group, etc.) • Can address counter-messages directly in social media and/or bring to conventional media if issue is developing

11. In summary • “The message” occurs in a complex, interactive environment • There is no magic bullet for shaping pro or against con arguments • Key conditions include: perception of transportation agency, type of opposition, use of media. • Social media pose a relatively efficient way to test and pose different approaches to messages for for different kinds of audiences

12. For more information… • Peter J. Haas, Education Director, Mineta Transportation Institute • Email: peter.haas@sjsu.edu • Phone: (408) 924 – 5691 Visit our web site at: www.transweb.sjsu.edu Search for “Transportation Finance” research or go to directly to: http://tinyurl.com/transit-elections • Regarding use of social media: Matt Raymond, President/CEO atCeltis Ventures, LLC • Email: mattraymond@verizon.net