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Pandemic Influenza: What YOU Need To Know

Pandemic Influenza: What YOU Need To Know. Katherine M. Williams, RN Masters of Nursing and Healthcare Practices Affiliated with: The American Red Cross Service Employees International Union, Local 199. What is Pandemic Influenza?.

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Pandemic Influenza: What YOU Need To Know

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  1. Pandemic Influenza:What YOU Need To Know Katherine M. Williams, RN Masters of Nursing and Healthcare Practices Affiliated with: The American Red Cross Service Employees International Union, Local 199

  2. What is Pandemic Influenza? • Pandemic influenza in humans occurs naturally several times a century, on average. • Pandemic flu is usually more severe than “seasonal” flu (the kind you get your annual flu shot for), with a higher death rate.

  3. What is Pandemic Influenza? • Pandemic flu affects the entire world, not just a country or a continent.

  4. Where Does it Come From? • Pandemic influenza is a virus to which humans have no natural immunity. • It originates in wild birds and then jumps to other species, including pigs and humans. • “Swine flu” has bird, pig and human genes, a very unusual occurrence.

  5. Recent Pandemics • 1918-19 - H1N1, "Spanish flu” Severe: Humans had no immunity to any of the 8 gene sequences • 1957-58 “Asian flu” Mild: We had immunity to 5 of 8 gene sequences • 1968-69 "Hong Kong flu” Milder: We had immunity to 6 of 8 gene sequences • 1997- ? H5N1, “Bird Flu” Severe: Humans have no immunity • 2009 - ? A/H1N1, “Swine Flu” Moderate: We have no immunity to any of the 8 gene sequences, but have modern medicine to help us this time.

  6. Why Should We Be Concerned? • The 1918 “Spanish flu” had a mortality rate of approximately 3% and caused widespread social disruption. • H1N1 currently has a mortality rate of around 0.5%, or 5 times the death rate of seasonal influenza, with prompt, first-rate medical care. • It has spread rapidly around the globe. • It is a new, unstable, unpredictable virus that has the capability to mutate soon and often.

  7. Where is it Now? Blue: A/H1N1 Red: H5N1 Purple: Both A/H1N1 & H5N1

  8. Current Situation Reported deaths 3,969 deaths as of Sept 17, 2009: • Brazil: 899 • United States: 694 • Argentina: 514 • India: 220 • Mexico: 217 • Australia: 172 • Thailand: 153 • Chile: 132 • Peru: 121 • Great Britain: 79 • Canada: 76 • Malaysia: 76 Cases have been confirmed on all continents and in nearly every country.

  9. Deaths in the U.S. First reported death: April, 2009 Current total: 693 Last week alone: 102

  10. Severity • This is now considered a “moderate” pandemic by the CDC (Category 2). • Expect at least 100,000,000 Americans to become ill at some point in the next 6-18 months. • Category 2 = between 90,000 and 450,000 deaths, mostly children and young adults.

  11. A/H1N1 Fatalities • Average age of death: 38 years old. • Affecting children and young adults, very different from seasonal flu. • About 1/3 have NO pre-existing medical conditions. • Most on ventilators for at least 7 days.

  12. Who’s Most at Risk? • Ages 5-50 • Pre-existing conditions: • Asthma • Diabetes • Pregnancy • Heart disease • Obesity

  13. But I’m not hearing much on the news! • Complacency and Apathy: our two worst enemies. • Media censorship: don’t want to cause “panic.” • There’s more “important” news out there!

  14. What about that “36,000” number? • Only around 1,300 people die each year directly from seasonal influenza, according to the American Lung Assoc. • The “36,000” number is an estimated number from a 2003 study, based on pneumonia death rates. • Most at risk of death from seasonal flu: >65 or <2 years old

  15. Under-reporting Issues: • No longer testing all suspected cases • Only the severely ill and/or hospitalized • Shortage of testing kits • Highly unreliable results • Need specialized test for definitive diagnosis (PCR)

  16. What about a vaccine? • Won’t be available until at least mid-October • Just finishing first clinical trials • First to receive vaccines: • Healthcare workers • Pregnant women • Emergency services • “High risk” people

  17. Potential Problems with a vaccine Major questions: • Safety? • Number of shots needed? • How well will it work? • How many available? • How to distribute? • 80% of U.S. vaccines are made overseas.

  18. What does this flu look like? • Fever (but up to 25% have no fever!) • Respiratory symptoms: cough, congestion, respiratory distress • Nausea and vomiting • Body aches and pains • Severe headache & mental status changes • Conjunctivitis

  19. What if you catch it? • Most cases are “mild,” requiring no medical intervention. • Some cases are NOT mild! • If you have increased risk factors DEMAND Tamiflu from your doctor. • Pay careful attention to disease progression – if you experience respiratory distress, high fever, gray skin, or extreme lethargy: GO TO THE EMERGENCY ROOM ASAP!

  20. So What Can YOU Do? • Be aware of the people around you – is anyone coughing or looking sick? • If you have increased risk factors, consider avoiding crowded areas like malls, airplanes, churches, and movie theaters. • BE AWARE: People can spread the flu for the first 24-48 hours they are infected and not show any symptoms.

  21. So What Can YOU Do? • If you feel sick, STAY HOME until you have been symptom-free for at least 48 hours. • Relapse is common – watch for this. • PREPARE for the second wave starting now.

  22. Prepare? For What? • Increased virulence in Second Wave? • Vaccine production and distribution issues • Tamiflu resistance? • Possible shortages of food and fuel • Combination with H5N1?

  23. H1N1 + H5N1: The Worst Case Scenario • H5N1 (“bird flu”) has a 60% mortality rate. • If the two combine, we may have a virus that is easily transmissible and highly lethal. • The World Health Organization is VERY worried about this recombination. • Widespread civilization collapse is possible.

  24. Mike Leavitt Former Secretary, U.S. Dept of Health and Human Services • “Local preparedness is the foundation of pandemic readiness. Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government will, at the last moment, be able to come to the rescue will be tragically wrong.” - Interview, March 21, 2006

  25. Former Secretary Leavitt, again: • "Anything we say in advance of a pandemic seems alarmist. Anything you've done to prepare after it begins is inadequate." - March 2006, California Pandemic Planning Summit

  26. Who Should Prepare? • The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services recommends the following entities should begin preparations: • Individuals • Businesses • Faith-Based Organizations • Schools • Healthcare Agencies • Non-profit agencies • State and local Governments

  27. Thoughts on Preparedness • We CANNOT depend on governmental help. • Most states and local governments are woefully behind on their pandemic preparedness plans. • Does your city have a plan? • How do these top-down plans affect you?

  28. Individual Preparations “You are on your own.” What does this mean to the average family? It means we must PREPARE.

  29. Why Prepare? • 40-50% of the workforce will be absent: • Some will be sick. • Some will need to take care of families. • Some will be afraid to come to work. • Most businesses do not have a pandemic plan.

  30. Why Prepare? • Medical services will be overwhelmed: • Our health care system has no real “surge capacity” to deal with a huge increase in patients. • Most hospitals do not have adequate supplies of personal protective equipment on hand to protect healthcare workers.

  31. Why Prepare? • Basic services may be interrupted: • Utility workers will be affected, too, resulting in electricity, water and natural gas outages. • Most communities have only a week’s worth of chlorine on hand to treat water supplies. • Police and other emergency services may be overwhelmed.

  32. Why Prepare? • International commerce will be drastically reduced: • About 80% of the raw materials for our medications come from overseas.

  33. Why Prepare? • “Just in time” thinking will backfire: • Most businesses and services have very little on hand for day-to-day operations. • Think of what local grocery stores look like the day before a blizzard is predicted.

  34. Why Prepare? • Schools may be closed: • Schools are prime locations for disease transmission. • Other places people congregate may also close, such as malls, churches, etc.

  35. Why Prepare? • Interstate commerce may break down: • The people who deliver our food, supplies and fuel will be vulnerable, too. • Interstate travel may be restricted.

  36. So Why Aren’t People Preparing?

  37. I’m not preparing because… • I HAVEN’T HEARD OF IT • There are some folks out of touch with world events and the news - they don’t want to know what’s really going on around them.

  38. I’m not preparing because… • I BELIEVE THE WHOLE THING IS JUST HYPE • “News organizations produce scary stories to get ratings.” • “Politicians and leaders want to cover their butts no matter how small the threat.” • “Big Pharmaceutical companies are encouraging fear to get business for their drugs.”

  39. I’m not preparing because… • I DON’T HAVE THE FUNDS TO PREPARE • “It’s hard enough just paying the regular bills and you want me to spend money on something that probably won’t affect me?”

  40. I’m not preparing because… • MAGICAL THINKING • “The threat is real but if I don’t prepare it won’t happen. Preparation will just cause it to happen.”

  41. I’m not preparing because… • I’LL WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS • “Yeah, I know bad things could happen, but there will be plenty of time to take steps if it gets worse.”

  42. I’m not preparing because… • IT’S NOT HAPPENING IN MY TOWN “Why should I be concerned because a bunch of people somewhere else are getting sick?”

  43. I’m not preparing because… • I HAVE NO FEAR • “So what if it happens, I’ll just take my chances – Nothing can hurt me!”

  44. I’m not preparing because… • THERE’S NO HOPE • “Preparation is an illusion. The pandemic will last so long and be so bad that I can’t avoid it. Everyone will die, so I might as well give up hope now.”

  45. So you feel the need to start preparing… • What exactly do I need to do? • And for how long?

  46. Take the First Steps: • Start THINKING about how you will react to a disaster – ANY disaster. • Stay INFORMED. • TELL OTHERS what you know and learn. … AND THE BIG ONE: • Be ready to “make it on your own” if things take a turn for the worse.

  47. How Do We Prepare? • Begin to stockpile: • Food and water supplies • Medications • Alternative heating and cooking methods • Emergency radio / communications • Alternative sanitation / hygiene

  48. A Kernel of Truth?

  49. Things to Consider: • Food • For how long? • How much per person? • What to buy? • How to store it?

  50. Things to Consider: • Water • How much? • How to store it? • Alternative sources?

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