William W. Fox, Jr., Ph. D. Science Director Southwest Fisheries Science Center

1. NOAA Fisheries Science Centers’ Salmon & General Science NeedsA Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board William W. Fox, Jr., Ph. D. Science Director Southwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA Fisheries Service 9 August 2005

2. Outline • Purpose • Issue • Presentation of Briefing • NOAA Coordination and Views • Desired Outcomes

3. Purpose • To inform the SAB on what the Alaska, Northwest, and Southwest Fisheries Science Centers need to do their jobs better on salmon and in general • Requested by SAB (7-12-05) • Jointly prepared by NOAA Fisheries AK, NW and SW Fisheries Science Centers • To obtain advice from the SAB

4. Issue What are the NOAA Fisheries Science Centers’ unmet needs for salmon and in general? • Major Infrastructure -- Ship Time • Observing Systems • Pacific Salmon Research

5. Oscar Dyson (103) Miller Freeman (228) John N. Cobb (164) McArthur II (118) David Starr Jordan (242) Assertive (mothballed) Charters (1297) Total NOAA Ships (855) Charters (1297) Alaska Fisheries Science Center (FSC) NOAA Ships (857) Charters (855) Northwest FSC NOAA Ships (363) Charters (242) Southwest FSC NOAA Ships (672) Charters (145) Total NOAA Ships (1892) Charters (1242) Ship Time Needs (Days at Sea) Current Capability (‘06)100% Requirements (‘12)

6. Ecological Ocean Observing Systems • Alaska Ocean Observing System • Arctic Ocean • Bering Sea • Gulf of Alaska • Pacific Coast Ocean Observing System (PaCOOS) • California Current System (Can.-Mex.) • Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems - WA & OR • Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System • Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System - SC Bight

7. Data Management A Huge Challenge!

8. Regional Issues and Research • Alaska • Bycatch in groundfish fishery • Effects of Oil Spills • Climate and Ecosystem Interactions • Northwest • Salmon passage at large dams • Hatchery/wild fish interactions • Climate and Ecosystem Interactions • California • ESU boundary conditions and severely fragmented ESUs • Resident and Anadromous ESUs • Climate and Ecosystem Interactions

9. Salmon Research Needs Research Dollars NWFSC Current Funding: shaded portion of column represents external funding from other federal agencies with co-management responsibilities in the Columbia River system. Required Funding: The required funding columns represent NOAA’s 100% requirement in the Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Execution System (PPBES) plus the additional funding (shaded portions) required if NOAA had to fully fund other federal agency salmon research in the Northwest and the California Coastal Monitoring Plan in the Southwest.

10. NOAA Coordination & Views • NOAA is addressing the needs through the budget process using its PPBES tool

11. Desired Outcomes • Obtain advice from the SAB on ways and means to close the gaps in fisheries science needs • Technology development • Partnerships • Increased NOAA Program Collaborations

12. Backup Slides • Backup slides include more information on Regional needs for research that were identified but not discussed in detail during this presentation

13. Backup Slides Alaska Fisheries Science Center

14. SALMON BYCATCH IN ALASKA GROUNDFISH FISHERIES • Salmon bycatch continues to be an issue in the Groundfish fisheries: • In 2004, • 62,493 chinook and 465,650 chum salmon were caught as bycatch in the Bering Sea and Aleutian fisheries • 17,904 chinook and 5,910 other salmon were caught as bycatch in the Gulf of Alaska • NOAA Fisheries North Pacific Groundfish Observer Program provides the data critical to monitoring salmon bycatch and the program needs ongoing support. • The North Pacific Fisheries Management Council is currently considering alternatives to address salmon bycatch in the Bering Sea/Gulf of Alaska, following up on actions taken in the mid-1990’s.

15. SALMON BYCATCH IN ALASKA GROUNDFISH FISHERIES

16. Effects of Oil Spills

17. Need better validation of local, regional and basin scale comparisons between depressed and healthy U.S. salmon stocks Support for long term studies to better understand dynamics of salmon in complex ecosystems, improve inter-regional comparisons, and expand science-based approaches to salmon management issues. Research needed to: Focus on the early marine period and immature stages Determine stock specific oceanic migration patterns Examine climatic and biophysical factors leading to variations in recruitment and survival Evaluate hatchery-wild stock interactions in marine environments Distinguish anthropogenic and climatic caused shifts in behavior or stock abundance Determining effects of climate variability and ecosystem processes on Pacific salmon survival and population status • Document temporal, spatial, use of different marine habitats • Develop bioenergetics models of salmon diets, growth, and predator-prey relationships • Understand effects of altered disturbance regimes • Determine impacts to food web structure due to introduced species and human activities

18. Determining effects of climate variability and ecosystem processes on Pacific salmon survival and population status Salmon populations respond to changing oceanographic conditions Dynamic oceanographic processes differ between regions Regional comparisons are critical in understanding differences in salmon population Common metrics are needed for making comparisons between regions

19. Bering Aleutian Salmon International Survey (BASIS) F/V Sea Storm (USA) R/V Tinro (Russia) • Understanding climate change in relation to declines in Bering Sea salmon populations. • Surveys covering the entire Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem • Observation systems for studying impacts of Bering Sea ice change • Leverage through International Partnerships • North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission • Russia • Japan R/V Kaiyo maru (Japan)

20. Need to develop and implement a scientifically sound plan to monitor ESU status and trends Region-wide monitoring essential for relating recovery efforts to population status Feasibility studies needed to evaluate emerging technologies for monitoring Life-cycle monitoring stations should be established for partitioning survival during freshwater- and marine-phases Alaska: Completed three years of a five-year BASIS study on marine factors related to Western Alaskan salmon population declines Gulf of Alaska salmon GLOBEC field work completed and in synthesis phase Population Monitoring

21. Northwest Fisheries Science Center Backup Slides

22. Develop robust life-cycle models • Define effects of specific recovery actions on population status • Define role of climate and ecosystem processes on population status • (Management) – coordinate ESA decisions with recovery planning efforts

23. Developing robust life-cycle models 2 spawners 4,000-5,000 eggs • Will require stage-specific survival rates • Identify life stages and conditions that are likely limiting • Evaluate relative contribution of ocean and freshwater conditions on population status • Estimate likely effect of proposed recovery actions 1-1.4Migrants return to spawning grounds 120-151 1-year-olds to Lower Granite Dam 95-119Migrants Below Bonneville Dam (77% transported, 23% in River) 2-3Adults return to mouth of Columbia 4-5 Youngsters To 3rd Birthday (Estuary & Ocean)

24. Status – life cycle models • NWC efforts • Several models already developed, and 2-3 more currently in development (anticipated due dates, December 2005) • Filling data gaps will allow development of more robust models in the future • Some in-house expertise, but funded in several cases by reimbursables or soft money • Current monitoring effort insufficient to support robust models in most ESUs. • Significant data gaps include freshwater, estuarine and ocean survival rates • Key area of research identified by RSRP and ISAB

25. Effects of anthropogenic actions • Experimental monitoring of ongoing and future actions • Establish causal and quantitative link between actions and population status • Evaluate effects of management programs • All areas – habitat, hatcheries, harvest, hydropower

26. Status – effects of actions • NWC efforts • Limited habitat conditions (e.g. Elwha dam removal) -- ongoing • Some hatchery impacts (e.g. fitness of hatchery fish) -- ongoing • Hydropower survival rates (e.g. estimates of direct migration survival) -- ongoing • Limited efforts by other groups • Habitat and hatchery experiments substantially underfunded • Hydropower studies maintained on reimbursables • Would contribute to improved life-cycle modeling and ability to estimate likely effects of proposed recovery strategies/suites of actions • Evaluation of ongoing activities (e.g. Forest and Fish, PacFish) critical for determining whether recovery plans are/will be effective • RSRP identified large-scale experiments aimed at determining hatchery program impacts as a key area of research

27. Need better validation of local, regional and basin scale comparisons between depressed and healthy U.S. salmon stocks Support for long term studies to better understand dynamics of salmon in complex ecosystems, improve inter-regional comparisons, and expand science-based approaches to salmon management issues. Research needed to: Focus on the early marine period and immature stages Determine stock specific oceanic migration patterns Examine climatic and biophysical factors leading to variations in recruitment and survival Evaluate hatchery-wild stock interactions in marine environments Distinguish anthropogenic and climatic caused shifts in behavior or stock abundance Determining effects of climate variability and ecosystem processes on Pacific salmon survival and population status • Document temporal, spatial, use of different marine habitats • Develop bioenergetics models of salmon diets, growth, and predator-prey relationships • Understand effects of altered disturbance regimes • Determine impacts to food web structure due to introduced species and human activities

28. Role of climate and ecosystems • Impacts of climatic and oceanographic variation on salmonid survival and population status • Determine impacts to food web structure due to introduced species and human activities

29. NWFSC status of climate/ecosystem research • NWC efforts • Incorporating climatic conditions into life-cycle modeling • Evaluating impact of introduced species, and non-normative native predator levels • Developing research plan for Ecosystem-Based Management in Puget Sound • Exploring potential for NWC-academic partnership for climate research • Substantially underfunded • Identified by many review panels (ISAB most notably) as a key area of research

30. Need to develop and implement a scientifically sound plan to monitor ESU status and trends Region-wide monitoring essential for relating recovery efforts to population status Feasibility studies needed to evaluate emerging technologies for monitoring Life-cycle monitoring stations should be established for partitioning survival during freshwater- and marine-phases Northwest: collaborative state/federal/local basin-scale monitoring projects Develop monitoring design (most data for the least money) Acquire detailed population and habitat condition data Pacific Salmon Population Monitoring

31. Southwest Fisheries Science Center Backup Slides

32. Need to develop and implement a scientifically sound plan to monitor ESU status and trends Region-wide monitoring essential for relating recovery efforts to population status Feasibility studies needed to evaluate emerging technologies for monitoring Life-cycle monitoring stations should be established for partitioning survival during freshwater- and marine-phases Southwest: California coastal monitoring plan nearly complete, implementation not yet funded feasibility study of DIDSON acoustic camera for monitoring steelhead runs planned pilot life-cycle monitoring effort underway Pacific Salmon Population Monitoring

33. Research needed to assess effects of severe fragmentation: Develop modeling framework Estimate migration rates and mechanisms Assess spatial correlation of extinction risks Assess viability of current, proposed and future structures Pacific Salmon Research Severely Fragmented ESUs

34. Enhanced support required for current research efforts to assess fragmentation effects: Several models developed Some spatially-explicit extinction threat data compiled Coast-wide genetic surveys of coho and steelhead in progress Tag- and otolith-based migration rate studies in early stages (proof of concept), funding needed for implementation Pacific Salmon Research Severely Fragmented ESUs

35. anadromous resident x Resident & Anadromous ESUsLife history variation in O. mykiss • Develop methods to determine life history • Describe frequency of anadromy across landscape, and frequency of interchange • Develop models to assess viability of mixed populations

36. SWFSC status – life history variation • Developed methods for analyzing otolith microchemistry (instrument at UC Davis) • Preliminary study of anadromy and residualization within CA hatchery stocks complete • Much work to be done-- sample collection, preparation and analysis • Several population models in development; collaboration with UCSC, SDSU

37. Need better validation of local, regional and basin scale comparisons between depressed and healthy U.S. salmon stocks Support for long term studies to better understand dynamics of salmon in complex ecosystems, improve inter-regional comparisons, and expand science-based approaches to salmon management issues. Research needed to: Focus on the early marine period and immature stages Determine stock specific oceanic migration patterns Examine climatic and biophysical factors leading to variations in recruitment and survival Evaluate hatchery-wild stock interactions in marine environments Distinguish anthropogenic and climatic caused shifts in behavior or stock abundance Determining effects of climate variability and ecosystem processes on Pacific salmon survival and population status • Document temporal, spatial, use of different marine habitats • Develop bioenergetics models of salmon diets, growth, and predator-prey relationships • Understand effects of altered disturbance regimes • Determine impacts to food web structure due to introduced species and human activities

38. Determining effects of climate variability in California California is the southern range limit for 4 species of anadromous salmonids Research needed on: • effects of altered disturbance regimes • Flood cycles and habitat dynamics • Conversion of snow-fed to rain-fed systems in Sierra Nevada • Fire cycles and habitat dynamics • Identify drought-resilient habitats • regional- and watershed-scale assessments of stream temperature; predictive models. • response of freshwater systems to warmer temperatures, less reliable precipitation. Statewide changes expected. Largest changes: Sierra Nevada & foothills; southern California

39. SWFSC Status – Climate Effects • Underway: Review of current knowledge about statewide effects for steelhead (collaboration with UCSC, UCSB). • Pilot work: regional-scale studies of stream temperature; stream perenniality • Complex interdisciplinary subject with limited work thus far. • Underfunded.